Karnataka The power struggle, which has been simmering for months and simmering over the past week, took an unexpected turn this morning. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. shivkumarThey appeared together for a breakfast meeting in Bengaluru, their first joint engagement after renewed speculation over a mid-term change of leadership. Later, the two leaders held a brief press conference, painting a picture of unity and saying there were “no differences” even as the political machinery around them was sorted out.Their presence did nothing to assuage the central question: What Congress Siddaramaiah should stick with him for the full five-year term or, many in the party believe, honor the unwritten consensus of 2023 to hand over the chief ministership to Shivakumar after half the term. If anything, the cautious effort forced by the Congress high command only underlines the stakes. The party’s largest state government is torn between two leaders who represent different regions, different caste networks and different styles of politics. Both are inevitable. No one can be sidelined easily.Also read: What happened in the high-stakes breakfast meeting between CM Siddaramaiah, DK Shivakumar?Last week, Karnataka’s political theater shifted from Vidhana Soudha to New Delhi, where groups of MLAs descended on the state to press their case before the high command. Religious saints have spoken out, caste unions have issued warnings and cabinet colleagues have chosen their words with increasing precision.
The AICC leadership may be able to delay the decision for now, but it actually faces a dilemma that runs deeper than personalities in Karnataka: how to preserve the fragile alliance of Ahinda voters and Vokkaliga mobilization that gave the Congress 136 seats in 2023.The question of power-sharing – never confirmed, never denied – has finally reached its moment of decision. Today’s show of unity may have bought time, but it does not resolve the question that will shape both the government’s stability and the party’s prospects in 2028: Who should lead Karnataka for the remainder of this term, and at what political cost?The recent confrontation was not just a squabble between two ambitious individuals. This is the result of very deep tensions – between social alliances and ethnic networks, between ideological appeal and organizational strength, between the leader who brings in votes and the leader who converts those votes into victory. Those forces have collided in Karnataka, the main stronghold of Congress in the south.Also read: Did the Congress high command once again fail to take timely action?The question now is not just who sits on the Chief Minister’s chair. The question is whether the Congress can keep together the alliance that gave it 136 seats in 2023, its best performance in the history of Karnataka, or whether the cracks that have appeared recently will break down completely.
A deal that has never been confirmed and never denied
When the Congress came to power in May 2023, the party harbored an immediate dilemma. The party had contested the elections with two strong leaders – Siddaramaiah, the experienced chief ministerial face who led the Ahinda alliance of minorities, backward classes and Dalits; and DK Shivakumar, the state party president, whose Vokkaliga influence and organizational firepower had helped decimate the JD(S) in old Mysore.So contentious was the question of who would lead, party negotiators were forced to work out a fragile truce after meeting for hours in a Bengaluru hotel. What emerged was a dual arrangement: Siddaramaiah would become the chief minister, and Shivakumar would serve as the deputy CM and remain the state Congress chief.Officially, that was the end of it. Unofficially, almost everyone in Karnataka politics believed that there was a cyclical understanding – that Siddaramaiah would rule for 2.5 years and Shivakumar would take over for the latter half. The party never confirmed this. No leader accepted this openly.But both of them did not deny it.This ambiguity has kept the alliance together so far.
Two men, two mandates
To understand why this controversy has escalated, it is important to understand the two fundamentally different power bases of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar.Ahinda ArchitectSiddaramaiah, now in his late 70s, is not just another regional satrap. Born in a Kuruba OBC family and inspired by socialist politics, he formulated AHINDA (Minorities, Backward Classes and Dalits) as a counterweight to dominant caste politics. Over four decades he transformed it from an idea to a social group.Ahinda is not a caste. It is a mosaic spread across Karnataka – non-dominant OBCs in the north, Dalits in the central districts, Muslims in urban clusters, tribals in the forest belt. In 2023 he voted heavily for Congress.In many villages, Siddaramaiah is not referred to by name but as “Namma Manusha” (our man). His welfare agenda, free bus travel for women, cash transfers, right to rice, subsidized electricity deepened that relationship. The Karnataka State Federation of Backward Class Communities (KSBFCC) has warned the Congress that any attempt to remove Siddaramaiah from the post will have ramifications for the party in view of the power struggle in the state.Vokkaliga MightyIn contrast, DK Shivakumar emerged from the rugged, faction-ridden politics of old Mysore. His constituency, Kanakapura, is made up of the Vokkaliga stronghold. Their rise has been defined by a willingness to fight, sometimes literally, for political territory.While Siddaramaiah talks about social justice, Shivakumar talks about loyalty. He is the organizer who rallies crowds, raises funds for campaigns, manages crises, and negotiates defections. He is also the biggest Vokkaliga face of the Congress at a time when the JD(S) has weakened and the BJP is hoping to make gains in the region.His victory in 2023 was emphatic – 75% vote share, defeating BJP’s former deputy CM R Ashok by over 1.2 lakh votes. For the Vokkaligas, this proves their stature. For the Congress machine, this proved to be his indispensability.These two power structures, Ahinda and Vokkaliga, are not interchangeable. Congress is dependent on both. And that dependence is at the heart of the current crisis.
A map divided between two political arguments
A kind of duplicity has emerged in the 2023 electoral map of Karnataka, which the Congress will have to deal with carefully.Ahinda-heavy Welfare Karnataka gave Siddaramaiah’s brand of welfare and identity politics a decisive victory.Old Mysore, where Vokkaliga votes matter, unexpectedly swung towards the Congress, reflecting Shivakumar’s influence and organizational discipline.The Lingayat-dominant region, long considered a BJP stronghold, also saw surprise gains for the Congress: the party jumped from 20 seats in 2018 to 42 in 2023.Urban Bengaluru is associated with the party’s welfare pitch, especially among women and minority voters.Senior party officials involved in the campaign often attribute the 2023 victory to complementary strengths: Siddaramaiah’s ability to attract votes from marginalized groups and women, and Shivakumar’s ability to translate that support into seats through booth-level management.Contribution of both was necessary. And both now complicate the question of succession.
Delhi became a battlefield
In recent times, the focus of Karnataka politics has shifted to Delhi. MLAs aligned with Shivakumar traveled to the capital to meet senior party leaders in hopes of pressing the case for a mid-term change. According to people familiar with the meetings, these MLAs stressed the purported understanding on rotation and argued that the party’s credibility depends on respecting it.Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah has clearly stated that he intends to serve a full term and his supporters have stressed the importance of administrative continuity and protecting the welfare-driven political alliance that has given the party the 2023 mandate. The backdoor meetings, public comments from leaders and the final approval from party chief Mallikarjun Kharge show how complex the decision is.
Role of bystanders and community voices
In Karnataka, religious heads of major communities play an important role in shaping the political narrative. Several Vokkaliga saints publicly indicated support for Shivakumar’s claim to the chief ministerial post, emphasizing that the community has not held the post since the early 2000s. This created additional pressure by framing the question as one of caste representation.Meanwhile, AHINDA-aligned voices expressed concerns – either directly or through political messaging – that sidelining Siddaramaiah could weaken the social coalition that has supported the Congress for more than a decade. His argument focused on stability and the electoral risks of alienating backward class and Dalit voters.
Siddaramaiah: stability and mandate
Siddaramaiah has publicly stated that he intends to serve the full five-year term, having said earlier this year that he had sworn in to rule for the full term. His position is based on administrative logic: major welfare programs require continuity and the party gave him the mandate as the proposed face of the chief ministerial post.Siddaramaiah’s supporters often point to the strong performance of AHINDA constituencies in 2023, arguing that any sudden change in leadership could weaken the political momentum built around welfare schemes and social justice politics.
Shivakumar: Organization and representation
Shivakumar has largely avoided direct confrontation in public and has consistently said that the party leadership will take a decision on the matter. But the position of his camp has been clear: many MLAs believe that he was central to the 2023 victory and the consensus reached during post-poll talks should be maintained.Apart from his organizational strength, the political importance of the Vokkaliga community works in Shivakumar’s favour. With the JD(S) weakening and the BJP attempting to make inroads in old Mysuru, elevating Shivakumar could help consolidate a valuable electoral base.
a dilemma unlike any other
The Congress central leadership must consider several competing risks:If Siddaramaiah remains in place for the full term:
- Vokkaliga dissatisfaction may increase.
- Shivakumar’s organizational system may lose enthusiasm.
- It may be difficult to maintain the lead of old Mysuru in 2028.
If Shivkumar takes charge in the mid-term:
- Ahinda voters may feel neglected.
- Welfare-driven governance may lose coherence.
- Siddaramaiah loyalists in the cabinet and administrative machinery may oppose or slow down political implementation.
If Congress announces a future-dated change:
- Both camps may continue to position themselves on the offensive.
- The regime may enter a long period of negotiation and factional balancing.
- Legislators may interpret any ambiguity as a signal to negotiate an individual position.
The Congress has faced similar leadership battles in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and ultimately lost power in these states.
what happens next
Congress high command – Sonia GandhiRahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge – Expected to take a decision soon. Reports suggest that the timing is linked to the upcoming Parliament session and state assembly calendar.The possible results are straightforward:
- Siddaramaiah will remain in place for the entire term with cabinet adjustments to accommodate Shivakumar’s supporters.
- Shivakumar has now taken charge, with assurances of administrative stability and negotiated distribution of responsibilities.
- Future-dated changes are announced, leaving the temporary balance intact but delaying the final resolution.
Each scenario carries political risks that will reverberate through 2028, when Karnataka goes to the polls.
big question
The debate over succession has exposed a deeper question for the Congress: Can the party manage a coalition built on two different pillars when it has to choose only one leader to represent it?Karnataka not only gave the Congress a numerical mandate but also a symbolic victory against the BJP’s national dominance. It demonstrated a model built on welfare, caste coalition-building and organizational renewal.If Congress handles the transition smoothly, Karnataka can remain a bastion and template. If it mishandles it, the state could slip out of the party’s hands, in a familiar cycle from its recent history.Either way, the central challenge remains unchanged:Congress will have to choose a leader without losing any camp.And in Karnataka, this has never been an easy option.
