New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party ended the year 2025 by surprising everyone with its election performance. At the beginning of the year it won the Delhi Assembly elections and ended the year by getting an overwhelming mandate for a “double engine government” in Bihar., BJP Work was also going on smoothly within the organization, with every leader sticking to his responsibilities and the party did not face any of the conflicts that often erupted in the opposition camp.
Nevertheless, 2026 presents a new set of challenges for the saffron party that will be a stress test for the BJP’s organizational depth, ideological reach and ability to transition from dominance to sustainability. These new challenges will shape the BJP’s trajectory long before the 2029 Lok Sabha contest. What are we looking at?
- At the beginning of the year, BJP will directly focus on the local body elections in major cities of Maharashtra. These elections may be at the lowest rung in the hierarchy of democracy, but add a lot of prestige to it.
- Assembly elections in 4 states – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala – and 1 Union Territory are scheduled to be held in 2026.
- Elections on 75 seats of Rajya Sabha.
- Several by-elections for assembly seats and vacant Lok Sabha seats in various states.
A crowded and consequential electoral mapThe upcoming assembly elections are going to be an unequaled challenge for the BJP. While it will intensify its efforts to retain power in Assam, it will also look to expand its sphere of influence in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry.Will Ganga flow through Bihar to Bengal?The Prime Minister said, “River Ganga flows through Bihar to Bengal. And like the river, victory in Bihar has paved the way for our victory in Bengal.” Narendra Modi Said after NDA’s huge victory in Bihar Assembly results.PM Modi’s remarks fulfilled BJP’s long-standing dream of bringing its own government to power in West Bengal. This dream now seems to be coming true as the BJP has made significant inroads in the state in a decade. With only 2 Lok Sabha seats and 17% vote share, BJP managed to win 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and 77 seats in the 2021 assembly elections.Moreover, it replaced the opposition from CPM and Congress in the state and emerged as a major challenger to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.Addressing a rally in West Bengal, Home Minister Amit Shah said, “Our vote share in the 2021 assembly elections was 36% and we will win the 2026 elections with a two-thirds majority. I know the next election will be fought on the issue of stopping infiltration and driving out infiltrators.”
He further said that Congress and CPM have been reduced to zero and his party has emerged as the major opposition force in the state.However, reaching the post of Chief Minister for BJP is not as easy as it seems.First and foremost, the big question looms over the leadership of the party in the state. The BJP had to choose between the stalwarts – Dilip Ghosh, Suvendu Adhikari and Sukanta Majumdar.On Wednesday, Shah reportedly held a separate meeting with Ghosh along with another former state president Sukanta Majumdar, outgoing Samik Bhattacharya and state opposition leader Suvendu Adhikari, hinting at bridging the gap between the party’s old guns and new guns.“I can’t say much, but you will see Dilip Ghosh active in the 2026 elections. I was called to hear my experiences and opinions,” Ghosh told reporters while leaving the venue.The move appears to be BJP’s attempt to keep Ghosh in confidence after he faced the party’s ire after his meeting with CM Mamata, which she termed as “personal”.Moreover, Muslims constitute around 27 per cent of the population in Bengal, which TMC claims as its voter base. The opposition to the BJP among this voter group seems to have increased even more after thousands of names were removed from the voter list following a particularly thorough revision by the Election Commission.Now, to deal with these challenges, the BJP will have to balance its Hindutva pitch with local economic and welfare issues without losing its core base. For this, the party has given the responsibility of long-term deployment in the state to senior leaders, while Bhupendra Yadav has been made in-charge of reviving the booth level machinery.BJP’s momentum stalled in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it managed to win only 12 out of 40 seats. In the 2021 assembly elections, it won 77 seats, while TMC won the election by winning 213 seats.Assam: Lightning, Fatigue and Fault LinesIn 2021, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma gave a decisive mandate. The BJP-led alliance is winning 75 seats in the 126-member assembly.Five years later, the Assam government is facing many problems including anti-incumbency.Welfare schemes remain popular, but there are signs of fatigue. Ethnic tensions continue to rise in Bodoland and surrounding areas, while opposition parties step up attacks on corruption and governance style. Currently, it seems that the BJP is overly dependent on one face, leaving the party facing identity-related flare-ups and local resentment.
Meanwhile, ahead of the elections, top BJP leaders are visiting Assam to raise the issue of alleged land encroachment by “Bangladeshi infiltrators” and Muslims of Bengali origin in their election campaign.Apart from PM Modi and Shah, the newly appointed National Working President of BJP… Nitin NabinAlong with other senior party leaders, he visited Assam in December to participate in programs and address rallies.Last month, after a series of strategic meetings, the state BJP said that the assembly elections would be “essentially a contest between the indigenous Assamese population and the Miyan Muslim community of East Bengal (Bangladeshi) origin”, claiming that “the future, security and civilizational continuity of Assam” would depend on this contest.On this the Chief Minister has further intensified his pro-Hindutva tone. In recent comments, he has questioned long-standing symbols of Assam’s pluralistic heritage by describing Bagh Hazarika, the Muslim warrior of the Ahom army who defeated the Mughals at the Battle of Saraighat, as a “fictional character”. He also dismissed the popular saying that “Assam is the land of Shankar-Azaan” as a “false narrative”.Southern Wall: Tamil Nadu and KeralaIf there is only one defining question for the BJP in 2026, it is this: can the party finally crack the South?Tamil Nadu remains the most difficult area. The Dravidian monopoly of DMK and AIADMK has restricted BJP’s vote share to less than 10 per cent. The appointment of Nainar Nagendran as head of state signals a shift towards coalition-building rather than solo assertion. The BJP is actively exploring new ties with the AIADMK, knowing that ideological rigidity could mean political irrelevance.
Meanwhile, she is also looking to strengthen ties with actor Vijay’s TVK party ahead of the assembly elections.In the last assembly elections, the BJP had contested 20 seats as part of the AIADMK-led alliance and won four.Kerala presents a different puzzle. The local body elections in December 2025 dealt a blow to the Left Democratic Front, leaving room for challengers. Still, BJP’s base remains in single digits. Any development strategy requires reaching out to Christian communities without alienating Hindu voters.
puducherryPuducherry, with an assembly of 30 seats, is small but politically useful. BJP’s victory or strong performance here will strengthen its southern narrative and help its Rajya Sabha arithmetic. Failure would underline the party’s limited coastal footprint.75 Rajya Sabha seats vacantAlong with this, there is also the calendar of Rajya Sabha. Seventy-five seats will become vacant in 2026, including 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP currently has eight seats. It is important for the BJP to maintain its numbers in the Upper House to continue its legislative momentum, especially as its economic and governance reforms remain on the agenda.leadership brainstormingWhile the BJP publicly rejects talk of succession, signs of an internal reassessment are increasingly visible. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has repeatedly talked about age-based retirement, leading to speculation of a generational change.The emergence of young Bihar MP Nitin Nabin as BJP working president after JP Nadda is widely seen as part of a long-term reset. With the support of PM Modi and Amit Shah, Nabeen’s rise reflects an attempt to blend organizational roots with youth appeal.Notably, the move sidelines the veteran contenders, lending credence to the idea that the high command wants continuity without rivalry.modi factorPM Narendra Modi remains the most powerful asset of BJP. His ability to dominate the narrative, organize voters, and frame elections as civilizational alternatives continues to distinguish the party.Yet 2026 will test whether brand Modi retains its potency in states where local faces are weak and regional identity is strong. The question now is not whether Modi can win the elections, but whether he can indefinitely compensate for the organizational deficiencies at the grassroots level.The opposition is weak, but not absentThe opposition India faction looks weak after poor performance in Bihar and Delhi. The Congress is marginalized in most of the 2026 states, and regional parties are prioritizing local battles over national unity.This fragmentation gives the BJP breathing room, but not immunity. Mamata Banerjee remains formidable in Bengal, and the Left has retained its loyal base in Kerala. SP’s focus on jobs and inflation in Uttar Pradesh could complicate Rajya Sabha calculations.The road to 2029 passes through 2026Inside the BJP, the plan for 2026 is already linked to 2029. Amit Shah’s “Mission 2026” includes continued deployment, organizational audit and renewed efforts in the south.The risks are real. Assam’s ethnic instability, Bengal’s organizational disorientation and Kerala’s demographic complexity may blunt ambitions. Success, however, would indeed strengthen the BJP’s claim as a truly all-India party.2026 will redefine BJP. This year will simultaneously test its North Indian tag, the limitations of Hindutva and the durability of PM Modi’s appeal.For a party addicted to momentum, 2026 is not just another election year. It looks like a referendum on whether dominance can evolve into longevity.
