The year 2026 is finally here and we know it will not be a regular stop on the election calendar. This year’s calendar is jam-packed with elections, starting with the long-pending Mumbai-Pune civic polls. Later, large-scale assembly elections are going to be held in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam etc. PuducherryThis will place some of the most influential politicians under rare and sustained scrutiny. For many leaders, the results will not only define the fate of their governments and party, but also their relevance in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.Regional parties are strong in these five states and one Union Territory and national parties are testing the outer limits of their expansion. What unfolds in 2026 will reshape the party’s existence, recalibrate and test the unity of the opposition BJPClaiming to be a truly all India power. At its center are a dozen leaders whose careers can change decisively within a year.West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee vs Dilip GhoshWest Bengal remains one of the most politically active battlegrounds of 2026. The pre-campaign has already begun with high-voltage observations amid the Special Intensive Review (SIR) exercise of the Election Commission. For Mamata Banerjee, this election has come after being in uninterrupted power for a decade. After crushing the Left and successfully beating the BJP’s lead in the 2021 assembly elections, they now face their toughest test yet. BJP’s momentum stalled in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it managed to win only 12 out of 40 seats. In the 2021 assembly elections, it won 77 seats, while TMC won the election by winning 213 seats.
A fourth consecutive term will cement Mamata’s position as Bengal’s long-term chief minister and one of the last regional leaders capable of stopping the BJP’s progress. But margins matter. Slipping below 200 out of the 213 seats it won in 2021, or the BJP crossing the 100-seat mark, would signal insecurity and weaken its lead in national opposition politics ahead of 2029.Meanwhile, on the last day of 2025, Union Home Minister Amit Shah outlined an action plan for the party’s West Bengal unit while reviewing its preparations for the assembly elections due early next year. Addressing both former and present representatives of the party, Shah sought to present a unified front while naming former state president Dilip Ghosh as one of the main faces of the saffron camp for the elections.For Ghosh, the stakes are existential. A BJP firebrand and former TMC stalwart, he was central to the party’s surge to 77 seats in 2021. If BJP crosses 120 seats in 2026, Ghosh will emerge as Mamata’s undisputed challenger and the leading alternative in Bengal. However, failing to take advantage of the anti-incumbency wave will raise uncomfortable questions over his influence in the state and the BJP’s long-term strategy.Tamil Nadu: Stalin vs Palaniswami – and Victory FactorTamil Nadu’s contest is shaping up to be a triangular test of patience, revival and disruption.Chief Minister MK Stalin is seeking a second term in 2021 after DMK’s easy victory. Retaining above 130-140 seats will keep the DMK firmly in power and strengthen Tamil Nadu’s role as a firewall against the BJP’s national narrative. But anti-incumbency pressure on floods, employment, law and order and urban governance could create space for a resurgence of the opposition.
This revival is dependent on former AIADMK chief minister and main opposition leader Edappadi K Palaniswami. A strong showing of more than 100 seats will restore AIADMK to equal status with DMK and slow down BJP’s efforts to include it in its fold. However, another weak performance could accelerate AIADMK’s marginalization and strengthen the BJP’s influence within opposition politics in the state.Looming over both are actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay, whose Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam is eyeing an election debut. Even winning 10-20 seats can make him a kingmaker. However, failure to move forward would mean another unsuccessful start and would strengthen the DMK-AIADMK monopoly.In the 2021 assembly elections, DMK got 133 seats, AIADMK got 66 seats and BJP got 4 seats.Kerala: Vijayan vs SatheesanKerala’s 2026 elections hold unusually high stakes for both the Left and Congress,For CPI(M) stalwart and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the contest is about legacy. He is aiming to achieve a historic third consecutive term – a feat rarely achieved in Kerala’s changing political culture. Maintaining a clear majority will ensure LDF’s dominance in the state and cement Vijayan’s stature as the Left’s most powerful living leader. But falling below the 70-seat mark is likely to spell the end of their era, especially amid criticism over governance, SFI-linked violence and fatigue after two terms.
On the other side, opposition leader of Congress-led UDF VD Satheesan is standing. Crossing the 80-seat mark will flip the House and revive Congress’s credibility in the South. However, another narrow defeat will strengthen the perception that the Congress is trying hard in Kerala, but the slow pace of the BJP, not the UDF, is the more consequential long-term challenge.In the 2021 assembly elections, the LDF won 99 seats and the UDF got 41 seats, while the NDA was unable to open its account. Assam: Himanta Biswa Sarma vs Gaurav GogoiAssam will test the durability of strong politics versus generational change.Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is aiming for a third consecutive NDA victory, with ambitious claims of winning more than 104 of the state’s 126 seats.
In 2021, Sarma delivered a decisive mandate as the BJP-led alliance won 75 seats in the 126-member assembly.Success will fuel his national ambitions and cement his position as the BJP’s most vocal regional leader. But a significant drop in the BJP’s tally of 60 seats in 2021 will also expose cracks under their strong governance style, especially over the CAA and NRC.In front of him is Gaurav Gogoi, son of Congress leader and former CM Tarun Gogoi. For Gogoi, 2026 is the time to emerge. A credible fight, around 40 seats for the India Bloc, would establish him as Assam’s most prominent Congress face and a possible future chief minister. A defeat would risk Congress becoming even more irrelevant in the state.Puducherry: N Rangasamy vs V VaithilingamSmall in size but big in symbolism, Puducherry may deliver one of the most important decisions of 2026.Outgoing Chief Minister N Rangasamy is leading a fragile AINRC-BJP alliance and is currently ruling with a slim majority achievable in 2021. Retaining power would validate his long-term role as political kingmaker and strengthen the BJP’s power to manage complex coalition politics.For veteran Congress leader V Vaithilingam, 2026 is a chance for revival. A UDF victory with 15 or more seats would be a dramatic comeback for the party that once ruled Puducherry. The failure will further strengthen the BJP’s hold and underline the declining influence of the Congress in smaller southern units.big pictureApart from state leaders, two national personalities will shape the outcomes in all five battlegrounds.For PM Narendra Modi2026 is less about immediate electoral survival and more about narrative control. With high-stakes assembly elections due this year, the Prime Minister’s role will be that of a campaign anchor and message-setter in several states, especially West Bengal, Assam and the southern battleground states, where the BJP remains an outsider.
A strong performance by the BJP in Bengal or surging gains in Tamil Nadu and Kerala will strengthen PM Modi’s claim to lead a truly pan-India party in 2029. On the contrary, stagnation or reversal in these areas will strengthen the opposition’s argument that the BJP’s expansion outside its core Hindi belt has peaked. Not just the victory, but the margin will also matter in deciding how invincible PM Modi looks in his third Lok Sabha election.Whereas there is no public leader. Nitin Nabin In 2026, he will be one of the most closely watched strategists of BJP. As a key organizational figure who has been tasked with strengthening party units beyond the Hindi heartland, the results in West Bengal, Assam and the south will directly reflect on his effectiveness.If the BJP improves booth-level performance, vote share and cadre depth in traditionally resistant states, Nabeen’s stature within the party will rise exponentially. But failure to translate the popularity of the central leadership into durable state-level structures will again raise internal questions about the BJP’s organizational limitations and succession planning within the second phase of leadership.For Amit Shah2026 is the culmination of “Mission 2026”. As the Union Home Minister and chief electoral architect of the BJP, he is overseeing the campaigns in Assam, Puducherry, Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. A clean sweep in states where the BJP already rules, coupled with successes in the South, will further strengthen its authority.For Rahul Gandhi2026 is a make or break year. After setbacks in Bihar and Delhi, a strong performance by the UDF in Kerala or Puducherry, or the rise of a credible Indian faction elsewhere, will validate their approach to coalition politics. At a time when the margin for error in the Congress is rapidly shrinking, continued erosion will deepen doubts over his leadership.
For Priyanka GandhiThis year will decide whether he is ready to take charge of the party, as many disgruntled party leaders had demanded in the past. As the Congress’s most recognizable campaigner after Rahul Gandhi, her effectiveness will be judged by the extent to which she can convert charisma and street contacts into electoral gains, especially in states where the party is struggling to arrest decline rather than expand. A strong performance by the UDF in Kerala or a credible revival in smaller battlegrounds will cement his position as the party’s chief campaigner. Meanwhile, Pawar’s seniors and juniors have come together to contest for Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC) in the BMC elections. thackeray cousin Have joined hands for Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. If these reunifications are successful, it could change the dynamics of the mega Maharashtra alliance (MVA and Mahayuti).People will see in 2026 Shashi Tharoor With the question ‘will he, won’t he?’ Due to his constant tug of war with his own party, it will be interesting to see whether the Congress ultimately makes him fall in line with the party lines or he walks away from it. Tharoor’s influence will also be tested by the results closer to home in Kerala.A victory for the Congress-led UDF would strengthen Tharoor’s hand within the party, reviving speculation about a bigger leadership role nationally or in the state. However, a defeat would blunt his political momentum. How Tharoor presents himself during the campaign, whether as a team player or as a distinctive voice, will be closely analyzed by both supporters and critics.The stage is set for a year of back-to-back elections that matter. In the end, 2026 won’t just elect governments, it will quietly decide who matters when the long road to 2029 really begins.
