Every democracy must redraw its electoral map from time to time to reflect population changes. In India this process is known as delimitation. On paper, this is a routine constitutional adjustment. In reality, the next delimitation exercise – to be held after the 2027 census – will be the most consequential redefinition of political power since independence. It will redefine how seats are distributed in the Lok Sabha and how India understands fairness, federalism and regional balance.
The Constitution requires delimitation after every census. But this theory has been suspended for almost half a century. The inter-state distribution of Lok Sabha seats has remained unchanged since 1976, fixed at the 1971 census data so as not to penalize states for controlling population growth. The 84th Amendment in 2001 specified that redistricting would be suspended until “the first census to be held after the year 2026”.
That suspension ends effective with Census 2027. Currently, representation is still dependent on India of 548 million people (1971) and not today’s reality of 1.47 billion.
Delimitation takes time. India’s last four commissions took between three and five-and-a-half years – and the previous commission (2002–08) only redrawn the boundaries of internal constituencies without redistributing seats among states. The next commission will likely reallocate seats among states for the first time since 1976, redraw all constituencies, and create reserved constituencies for the 33% quota of women. Even if Census 2027 data is published in 2028, completing the delimitation before 2031-32 seems impossible. As a result, women’s reservation will not be implemented before the 2034 elections. But we cannot deny the surprise.
Complexity around numbers
In the 1970s, fertility rates were similar in all states. Today, they are increasingly separated. Southern and western states achieved below-replacement fertility through investments in education, health, and women’s empowerment. Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are recording high population growth. If population alone determined representation, states that controlled development would lose political weight, while states that did not would gain significantly.
The numbers are sobering. According to delimitation projections, if seats in the expanded Lok Sabha of about 888 members were allocated entirely on the basis of population, Uttar Pradesh would increase from 80 to 151 seats and Bihar would increase from 40 to 82 – which would, combined, be a little more than 26%. Tamil Nadu will have 53 seats (out of 39) and Kerala will have 23 (out of 20). Although their absolute numbers have increased, their share in total Lok Sabha members will decline from 7.2% to 6.0% and 3.7% to 2.6% respectively, as the northern states are disproportionately benefiting. This creates a moral contradiction. Why should states be punished for good governance? For 50 years, India urged states to impose population controls. Those who succeeded will now lose representation. The logic that forced the bans in 1976 and 2001 is still valid.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said in 2025 that “not a single seat will be reduced” from any southern state. But this promise may not correct the imbalance if Northern states gain sizable gains – or it may require suspending constitutionally mandated redistricting altogether, inviting a legal challenge.
Arithmetic reveals a deep complexity. Even if Southern states retain their current seat numbers in the expanded House, their influence is significantly reduced. Parliament works on absolute numbers, not on proportions. When the combined strength of UP and Bihar exceeds a quarter of the House, the bargaining power of other regions inevitably diminishes – despite the promise technically being fulfilled.
options worth considering
There are six options that should be debated.
First, extend the current moratorium beyond 2026, delaying redistribution until fertility rates equalize. This preserves the current balance but deprives rapidly growing states of fair representation (a legitimate concern) and risks a constitutional challenge under Article 14, as unequal representation based on 50-year-old data undermines the principle of equal franchise.
Second, by increasing the Lok Sabha from 543 to, say, 750 or 888 seats, ensuring that no state loses seats; Some benefit more. However, proportional distribution means that larger states still get larger shares, thereby ignoring Southern concerns.
Third, adopt a weighting formula: 80% weighting for population, 20% for development indicators such as literacy, health, or continued fertility control – in line with how the Finance Commission uses composite indicators for tax transfers. It rewards governance outcomes, not just population size. The ratio could be 70:30.
Fourth, strengthen the Rajya Sabha as a true federal house. Previously, domicile requirements had ensured that members represented the states from which they were elected. Now, anyone can be selected from anywhere, weakening that link. Domicile status should be restored. Additionally, Rajya Sabha seats are distributed largely on the basis of population – Uttar Pradesh has 31 seats while Sikkim has one – blunting its federal purpose. Consider adopting the American system of having an equal number of seats in a state, regardless of size (California 39 million, Wyoming 0.5 million both have two senators). An Indian model could be developed that could have three tiers: largest states (15 seats each), medium states (10 seats), smallest states (five seats). Within each tier, states will get equal representation regardless of population, balancing federalism and restoring the moderate role of the Rajya Sabha.
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Fifth, to reduce the excessive weight of Uttar Pradesh, divide it into three or four states. UP was already divided in 2000 to create Uttarakhand, and the movement for Bundelkhand and Purvanchal states has been going on for decades. If UP’s estimated 151 seats are divided among four states (about 38 seats each), no one state will dominate – this will become a federalism solution, not just an administrative solution.
Sixth, implement phased redistricting over two election cycles. Reallocate half the adjusted seats in 2034, the remainder in 2039, to give states and parties time to adapt. This minimizes political blowback while respecting constitutional requirements.
Careful navigation required
Delimitation will fundamentally reshape coalition politics. If two states have one-fourth of the Lok Sabha seats, then the mathematics of government formation changes completely. Regional parties that have historically provided parliamentary balance will see their leverage reduced, regardless of absolute seat numbers. The choice between constitutional fairness and political stability requires carefully resolving this structural tension.
Explained: What is the dispute about delimitation?
Beyond sources, process matters. The Delimitation Commission should include experts in demography, constitutional law and federal studies along with meaningful state representation. Transparency, extensive public hearings and strong monitoring are essential.
The next delimitation will also redraw the boundaries of internal constituencies taking into account geography, administrative convenience and Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) representation. While the number of SC and ST reserved constituencies is determined by strict population ratio, the location of specific SC constituencies involves the Commission’s discretion, potentially creating room for manipulation. ST formula should apply to both.
Delimitations are a national milestone that will redistribute political voices and shape coalition politics for decades. Done well, it can affirm the unity of India and modernize representation. Done poorly, it could deepen mistrust and hurt the federal spirit.
The census will measure India’s population; Delimitation will measure its democracy. Once the census data is released, positions will harden and consensus will erode – making now the time for talks.
Is Tamil Nadu’s delimitation formula practical?
If guided by transparency, empathy and shared justice, this exercise can renew faith in federalism and democracy. But if it is motivated only by political arithmetic, it could redefine the moral balance of the republic.
SY Qureshi is a former Chief Election Commissioner of India and author of An Undocumented Wonder: The Making of the Great Indian Election
