New Delhi: For four nights during Operation Sindoor, Pakistan threw everything it had into the sky, sending hundreds of drones, firing long-range missiles, launching cyber intrusions, using electronic jamming and flying manned aircraft along India’s air-defence border. But a detailed Swiss military study shows that none of this achieved the desired results Islamabad was seeking.
Published by the Switzerland-based Center for Military History and Perspective Studies (CHPM), the reconstruction shows how Pakistan conducted the air campaign in waves, each bigger than the last, and why each one failed to weaken the Indian Air Force or air defence.
Written by military historian Adrien Fontanellaz and translated by Benedict Smith, the former French defense attaché to India, it is one of the most detailed foreign assessments ever of the India-Pakistan air conflict that took place between May 7 and May 10, 2025.
The research was reviewed by a committee led by CHPM President Claude Meyer and a retired Swiss Air Force major general who served as Chief of Staff of the Swiss Armed Forces from 2016 to 2020. Defense strategist Joseph Henrotin and international security expert Arthur Lucenti were also part of the panel.
By the final morning, the report concludes, the air war had reached the point where Pakistan could no longer influence events in the sky.
The report said, “Substantial evidence indicates that, by the morning of 10 May 2025, the Indian Air Force had succeeded in achieving air superiority over a significant portion of Pakistan’s airspace. This in turn enabled it to continue long-range strikes against enemy infrastructure, at least as long as it retained adequate stocks of munitions such as BrahMos or SCALP-EG.”
One night meant drawing blood
The study confirms that the air confrontation began late on May 7 with two Indian strike packages, consisting of Rafale and Mirage 2000 aircraft, targeting the Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters in Bahawalpur and the Lashkar-e-Taiba base in Muridke.
One formation deliberately entered Pakistani airspace at low altitude before executing a pop-up attack with the aim of provoking interception. Pakistan responded by scrambling more than 30 fighter planes and firing PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles. The main targets were Rafale jets.
Islamabad later claimed that six Indian aircraft were destroyed. The Swiss assessment confirmed the loss of at least one Rafale (serial number BS001), one Mirage 2000 and one additional fighter aircraft, assessed as a MiG-29 or Su-30MKI, while also stating that several Indian pilots escaped the incoming missiles.
Indian Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan had rejected Pakistan’s claims in an interview with Bloomberg in Singapore last year. “The important thing is not that the jets were being shot down, but why they were being shot down,” he said, adding, “The number is not important.”
Pakistan’s first census
According to the report, Pakistani ground-based radar and electronic listening stations, supported by Aeriye airborne early warning and control aircraft, detected Indian formations shortly after midnight.
Over the next 20 minutes, Pakistan identified eight groups of six to eight aircraft along four axes, totaling about 60 aircraft including 14 Rafales, which were later reinforced by additional fighter jets.
The PAF deployed 32 fighter aircraft (F-16, JF-17 and J-10C), most of which were concentrated from Lahore to the east of Islamabad. Once the Indian aircraft released their weapons, the PAF chief ordered pilots in the eastern sector to engage aggressively, limiting the risk of retaliatory fire.
J-10C and JF-17 fighters shot down several PL-15s. An HQ-9 or HQ-16 surface-to-air missile battery was also included in the Indian aircraft. Rafael was designated a priority target because of his symbolic value.
Pakistan later claimed that six Indian aircraft were destroyed inside Indian airspace. The Swiss study said photographs of the debris confirmed minimal damage. “The discovery of several PL-15 missile casings over Indian territory indicates that other IAF pilots successfully destroyed or evaded some of the missiles fired against them,” it said.
Then came the drone boom
The report suggests that this was followed by a change in air combat saturation strategy.
As soon as the morning of 7 May, Pakistani artillery started shelling on the Line of Control (LOC). That night, the PAF launched a large-scale operation in which more than 300 drones and JF-17s fired CM-400AKG missiles, designed to attack radar emissions and disable Indian air defences.
The drones targeted forward posts, headquarters, logistics centers and air stations of the Indian Army, and also attempted to trigger Indian radar activation for electronic intelligence mapping.
“Songhar drones are capable of delivering small offensive payloads and the far more sophisticated, Turkish-designed Yiha-III suicide drones, which operate within or behind decoy drone formations. In parallel to these dynamic actions, the PAF also conducted a series of cyber attacks against both military and civilian targets,” the report said.
Indian security was intact. Anti-aircraft guns destroyed more than half of the incoming drones, with jamming and spoofing systems playing a decisive role.
The report said, “Importantly, the integration of the Air Force’s IACCCS and the Army’s Akashteer network allowed Indian forces to fuse data collected by optical and electromagnetic sensors. As a result, the Pakistanis failed to accurately map the Indian electronic order of battle after this initial attack.”
Big waves, same results
Pakistan repeated the exercise on the night of 8–9 May by launching around 600 drones and extending the targets to air stations such as Adampur and Srinagar. S-400 batteries were considered high-value targets.
The third wave came on 9 May. It was large and focused almost exclusively on air stations and nearby S-400 systems. The F-16 and JF-17 were used more intensively, operating on the perimeter of Indian air defenses.
Pakistan claimed success through cyber and electronic warfare and said the JF-17 fired CM-400AKG missiles at an S-400 battery at Adampur.
Applying its own verification standards, the Swiss study found no evidence of damage and rejected Pakistan’s claim.
when the pressure is reversed
According to the report, the first Pakistani drone wave led to pre-planned Indian tension.
On 8 May, the Indian Air Force launched a concentrated interdiction operation against Pakistani air-defense infrastructure using Harop and Harpy munitions. Eight locations were attacked on 8 May and four more on 9 May, including early-warning radars at Chunyan and Pasrur.
An Indian S-400 battery shot down a Pakistani ARI or electronic warfare aircraft at a range of about 300 km.
By the early hours of 10 May, Indian intelligence detected preparations for another Pakistani attack. Between 02:00 and 05:00, the Indian Air Force launched BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles from within Indian airspace, striking seven locations up to 200 km inside Pakistan.
At 10:00 the second wave arrived, expanding the target to include manned aircraft. Sargodha Air Base was disabled after missile impact on runway intersections. Jacobabad Air Base suffered hits on an F-16 maintenance hangar, a radar and supporting infrastructure. At Bholari, a hangar housing ARI aircraft was seriously damaged.
The IAF assessed that at least four or five F-16s, one Eriye, one C-130, several MALE drones, two radars, two command-and-control centers and one SAM battery were destroyed on the ground using about 50 long-range weapons.
Pakistan reported that the aircraft at Bholari was moderately damaged and quickly repaired, although five personnel were killed.
last sign
The report stated that by noon on 10 May, Pakistani military officials requested a ceasefire. India accepted Operation Sindoor fulfilling the political objectives assigned to it.
The study notes that claims by both sides depend largely on radar and electronic intelligence data, which may lead to evasive maneuvers or electronic countermeasures being misinterpreted as confirmed kills.
It also said that the opening night was a shock for India. “The loss of at least one Rafale provided the adversary with a key element to support its public relations campaign,” the report said.
The authors believe that the initial blow depended on several factors, including Pakistan’s apprehension of the operation, the PL-15 missile’s longer-than-expected range, low-altitude tactics, and collaborative targeting using ARI and Link-17 data systems.
“If this were the case, JF-17 and J-10C fighters would have the option to keep their radars off and fire PL-15 missiles with active radar guidance using targeting data transmitted by the Aeriye,” the report said.
By the end of 88 hours, the study said the outcome in the air was already clear, not because of a decisive attack but because repeated attempts to breach India’s defenses had failed.
