New Zealand’s emphatic 61-run win over Sri Lanka has not knocked Pakistan out of the T20 World Cup yet, but it has made their semi-final route far more difficult and far less controllable.
The basic picture is now clear. In Super 8 Group 2, England are already through with 4 points. New Zealand have moved to 3 points after beating Sri Lanka, while Pakistan remain on 1 point after their defeat to England and the earlier washout against New Zealand. Sri Lanka, on 0 points after two losses, are out. The current net run rates make the pressure even more obvious: New Zealand are at +3.050, Pakistan at -0.461.
On points, Pakistan are still alive. They can still reach 3 points if they beat Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 match. But they can no longer qualify by their own result alone. They also need England to beat New Zealand. If New Zealand beat England, they go to 5 points and seal the second semi-final spot behind England. If New Zealand lose to England, they stay on 3 points and Pakistan can draw level on points by beating Sri Lanka.
That is where New Zealand’s big win becomes a major problem for Pakistan.
Because the margin was so heavy, New Zealand’s NRR has surged to +3.050. Pakistan are sitting at -0.461. That is a gap of 3.511, which is huge this late in a short-stage tournament. In simple terms, even if England beat New Zealand, Pakistan would likely need not just a win over Sri Lanka, but a very strong one, while also hoping England’s victory dents New Zealand’s NRR enough.
This is why New Zealand’s result changes the mood of the group. Before this match, Pakistan’s qualification equation was difficult but still looked like a standard two-result scenario. After this match, it has become a two-result scenario plus an NRR mountain.
So Pakistan’s hopes are now alive in theory, but fragile in practice. They need help from England, and then they need to produce a statement win of their own. New Zealand have not ended Pakistan’s campaign yet, but they have pushed it to the edge.
