When American presidents lead the country into armed conflict they often benefit politically. George H.W. Bush’s approval rating was 64% on the eve of the Gulf War in 1991. This increased to 82% within days of the start of Operation Desert Storm. His son fared even better: after declaring a “war on terrorism” and making the case for invading Afghanistan in 2001, George W. Bush’s approval rating increased from 51% to 90%. This faded over the next year and a half, before reaching 75% again at the beginning of the Iraq War.
Then there’s Donald Trump, who has an approval rating of 38% – a figure that almost entirely reflects the public’s support for him. attack on iran. been there No big rally effect around the flag Since the war started on 28 February. However, Mr Trump has fared better with Republicans: approval of the attacks among them has increased from 68% to 76%, according to a YouGov poll. The division within the party is shocking. While only 64% of non-MAGA Republicans support the president’s war, the share among self-described MAGA Republicans has increased to 85% (see chart).
This may seem strange. asked, after all, This is a separatist movement in itselfSuspicious of foreign entanglements and military adventurism. Its slogan is “America First”. Its followers over the past decade have cheered Mr Trump as he called the Iraq War a “big, fat mistake”, promised to avoid “endless wars” in the Middle East and mocked his predecessors for “intervening in complex societies they didn’t even understand themselves”. A month before he won a second term in 2024, he made a simple promise: “You are not going to war with me.” Yet, even after breaking that promise, his base remains firmly behind him. Why?
Part of the answer is that MAGA is not a movement defined by principles, but rather a movement organized around Mr. Trump — a man of remarkably flexible beliefs. When the president was asked how his so-called non-interventionist base viewed his decision to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January, he summed it up best. “MAGA loves it,” Mr. Trump said. “MAGA likes what I’m doing. MAGA likes whatever I do. MAGA is me.” When asked whether his attack on Iran could lead to a split in the movement, he reiterated the same point. “They completely trust his instincts on war,” says Colin Duke, a former Republican foreign-policy adviser at George Mason University.
But MAGA’s personality cult explains only so much. The movement’s enthusiasm for striking Iran also reflects the appeal of Mr. Trump’s broad approach to military power. If ever there were a style of foreign policy best suited to America First, this would be it.
Oh, what a show!
For starters, Mr Trump favors spectacular, almost cinematic displays of American power – especially those aimed at toppling or killing enemy leaders. Take the operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, in which Delta Force commandos entered the country’s strongest military base and captured him. “I literally watched it like I was watching a television show,” Mr. Trump said afterward, sounding more like a spectator than commander-in-chief. “That was an amazing attack,” he exclaimed. If he was entertained, so were his many supporters. Before the raid more than half of MAGA Republicans supported Mr Maduro’s removal; After a week this increased to 80%.
His rhetoric regarding Iran follows the same script. Last year’s bombing campaign was “spectacular military success“, he said, adding that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “completely and completely destroyed.” In the current war, Iran is being “beaten to death”, and America’s armed forces are “exterminating the crap” out of the country. The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the very first day provided a suitably dramatic opening act.
The second element of Mr Trump’s approach is how it embodies the principle of America First. The president appears largely indifferent to international law or diplomatic norms, and his administration often treats such constraints with open contempt. “What you’re seeing right now is a military … that is not a politically correct fight,” White House adviser Stephen Miller claimed on Fox News. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says, “There are no stupid rules of engagement”.
Yet even if Mr. Trump’s wars follow certain rules, one principle remains constant: America must benefit. He has long argued that the US should benefit from conflicts in the Middle East – for example, complaining that the US should “take the oil” in Iraq. After the raid in Venezuela he similarly suggested that the US would benefit from the country’s vast oil reserves. When it comes to Iran, another country with large oil reserves, he is more cautious, perhaps worried about spooking energy markets or drawing attention to the fact that oil prices have risen as a result of his war.
The final element of Mr. Trump’s approach to war is brevity. In its second term itself, America has carried out air or naval strikes in at least seven countries – Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Yemen. Yet these interventions are designed to be swift and limited. Once convicted, Mr. Trump has shown little appetite for a lengthy or costly commitment.
For MAGA loyalists, the major failure of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was not the interventions themselves, but what followed: the deployment of hundreds of thousands of American troops in pursuit of democracy-building. Mr Trump has little interest in spreading American virtues abroad. “Not a nation-building quagmire, not a democracy-building exercise,” Mr. Hegseth says of the Iran war. “The United States doesn’t care who replaces the leaders it kills.” Mr Trump will not insist that they be civilized or democratic – only obedient. In Venezuela he has prioritized order over democracy by replacing Mr Maduro with a powerful insider, signaling a willingness to compromise with the United States, at least for now.
blame israel
Yet there is a vocal minority within the MAGA movement that is unhappy with all this. They condemn the Iran war as a betrayal of the President’s promise to end wars once and for all and focus on domestic problems. Trump loyalist and talk-show host Tucker Carlson called the war “absolutely disgusting and evil”, predicting that it would affect the president’s movement in a “profound way”. Other criticisms are more moderate but raise doubts about the scope and duration of the conflict. Matt Walsh, a conservative podcaster, posted on social media, “I’m not really an isolationist. I’m just an America First conservative in the strictest sense of the word.” “With this Iran thing, I don’t see how the math works in our favor.”
The sharpest criticism has focused on Israel’s influence on Mr. Trump’s war decision. Secretary of State Marco Rubio caused an uproar when he told reporters that the US took action after learning that Israel planned to strike first – a move he said risked damaging US bases in the region. Mr Trump denied that sequence of events, claiming instead that they had forced Israel out. (Mr. Rubio has since retracted his comments.) Either way, the episode has given ammunition to MAGA critics — especially those who are skeptical of Israel. “It’s hard to say, but the United States did not make the decision here. Binyamin Netanyahu did,” Mr. Carlson said on his podcast. “No one should have to die for a foreign country,” former Fox News host Megyn Kelly said on her podcast. “I don’t think those service members died for the United States. I think they died for Iran or Israel.”
The question is whether the broad MAGA base will remain with the president if the Iran war turns into a stalemate. Unlike the raid in Venezuela, which lasted only a few hours, Mr. Trump says this war could last for several weeks, perhaps even longer. He has also called for the Islamic Republic’s “unconditional surrender” – an ambitious war goal. The longer the war continues, the greater the temptation to achieve such a victory by sending in ground forces. Mr Trump has not denied this. Will he cross the MAGA red line? are there any?
The second risk is a rapid collapse in Iran, plunging the country into civil war and sectarian bloodshed that could spread to neighboring states, including US allies. This would expose the president to his base—and the country—for the thing he fears most: looking weak. Mr Trump has long described Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 as a disgrace for the US, vowing he would never have done anything so “shameful”. Yet due to the poor result in Iran he may face the same charge.
However, for now, Mr. Trump remains on firm ground with the MAGA movement. Almost nothing has dented his 90% approval rating among his base, from his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case to his overseas adventures. The Iran war may prove to be the biggest test of his loyalty. After the first bomb was dropped, the President said, “MAGA is Trump.” The longer the campaign goes on, the more we will learn about whether this is actually the case or not.
