Tehran has attacked the Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu city in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian gas fields. Since the Yanbu refinery is one of the largest in the Gulf, Iran’s retaliatory attack on the port could potentially extend the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the Red Sea. Given that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to continue, the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea is an alternative for global energy supplies. Since the Iran-backed Houthis based in Yemen have not yet started to respond, a possible attack by them in the near future will create chaos in the region. In this context, the recent diplomatic recognition of the sovereign state of Somaliland by Israel represents a significant geopolitical development with far-reaching implications in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor. It was the first diplomatic mission to the country, following Israel’s formal recognition. This move increases Somaliland’s strategic importance in regional power dynamics. After separating from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland was seeking international recognition. Somaliland has remained an unrecognized country for more than three decades. This Israeli recognition is likely to change the entire geopolitics of the region, given that this diplomatic recognition occurred at a time when Israel and the US were about to attack Iran, which is not a mere coincidence but probably a deliberate strategic move by Israel. Both the US and Israel were probably well aware of the fact that, following an Iranian attack, they would see retaliation from Iranian proxies from across the region.
By formalizing relations with Somaliland, Israel signals its intention to position itself strategically near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. As a result, major powers in the Horn of Africa and West Asia are forced to reevaluate their political, economic and security interests in the region. The recognition of Somaliland thus intensifies geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa region. The Horn of Africa was already involved in great-power competition due to its strategic location near the Bab el-Mandab Strait and its important role in the global trade route. However, the importance of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait has increased significantly in recent changing geopolitics, given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the ongoing war in Iran.
Since the US-Israel calculation to promote regime change in Iran has likely failed, the US and Israel’s completely violative and unilateral decision to attack Iran has backfired. The way Iran is reacting is absolutely unprecedented and unexpected. Since both sides have opened multiple fronts against each other, the level of lethality is increasing every day. Although Iran has nothing left to lose in this war except protecting its existential crisis, the global image of military superiority of the US and Israel is neither allowing them to walk out of this war, nor have they reached a point where they can claim that they have actually won this war. While Iran is using an asymmetric warfare strategy to protect its sovereignty, both the US and Israel may realize that it is not possible to defeat Iran militarily. Since the US and Israel are not getting the support needed to defeat Iran, the recent attack by the US on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub, can be understood as a US strategy to internationalize the issues of crude oil shortage and rising prices. Doing so would certainly hinder the shipping of non-US vessels carrying crude through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has selectively ordered to deny passage to enemy vessels through the Strait. Therefore, both sides willingly or unwillingly keep opening new fronts every day, as airstrikes keep hitting targets on both sides. In this context, Israel’s involvement with Somaliland could play an important role in opening another front of this war, potentially leading to the closure of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait and also creating a new crisis in the Red Sea.
A recent statement issued by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the Yemen-based Houthis who act as Iranian proxies against Israel, said Houthi militias are well prepared to participate in an Iranian war against the US and Israel. He said the Houthis militia already have their hands on the trigger, and they will soon open a new front against Israel, depending on the circumstances arising from the ongoing US-Israeli attacks on Iran. In this context, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, located in the Horn of Africa, is likely to play an important role for Israel in keeping an eye politically and militarily on the Houthis, the Iranian proxy in Yemen.
Reports emerging that Israel is considering building a military and intelligence outpost in Somaliland to target the Houthis in the region have triggered a new wave of criticism as the move could draw East Africa into a larger West Asia conflict. Since Somaliland has not yet officially rejected this claim, this clearly shows that Somaliland is maintaining a strategic silence on the matter. Given that the world is already facing skyrocketing energy prices following the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the upcoming potential conflict between the Houthis and Israel in the Horn of Africa could also precipitate this war, causing another supply chain disruption and leading to a sharp rise in energy prices worldwide.
Somaliland is geo-strategically located in the Horn of Africa near Bab el-Mandab, a narrow waterway connecting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. This route is the most important route to connect Asia with Europe. This waterway is important for global trade, and about 20% of global container shipping passes through the region. Therefore, the Bab-al-Mandab Strait is important, but vulnerable to attack by Yemen’s Houthis militia.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland immediately triggered criticism from 20 West Asian and African countries. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held an emergency meeting to discuss diplomatic recognition of Somaliland by Israel. Several Security Council members and regional states have warned against the provocative move, which could potentially escalate tensions in the Horn of Africa. The Somali federal government views sovereign Somaliland as a threat to its territorial integrity. Its allies in the region, Djibouti, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, rejected the Israel–Somaliland agreement. The African Union has warned that recognition of Somaliland could set a dangerous precedent, potentially threatening the peace and security of the continent. However, criticism aside, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland just weeks before the Iranian attack is a deliberate strategic move by Israel to counter Iranian proxies in the region. There are reports that Iran has now started targeting the energy infrastructure located on the Red Sea coast as a retaliatory attack.
Israel’s strategic aspirations in the Red Sea corridor and the Horn of Africa are driven by regional balance of power, checking security threats, and security of maritime trade in the region. As Israel seeks to counter the threat of Houthis emanating from Yemen, its potential military base in Somaliland would counter the security threat emanating from Yemen. Therefore, Israel’s historic step of recognizing Somaliland will show its military presence in the region, which aims to end Iranian dominance in the Red Sea once and for all.
The Horn of Africa is central to India’s maritime and trade security. Due to regional instability arising from a possible confrontation between the Houthis and Israel in the region, this diplomatic move by Israel will significantly disrupt another supply chain route, which will severely hamper India’s energy imports through this route. This volatility will also translate into higher premiums/insurance costs and naval securitization, forcing India to recalibrate its maritime policy on a broader scale.
Although Israel’s recognition of Somaliland may temporarily hamper India’s security and economic interests in West Asia, it will also provide India an opportunity to reshape its West Asia policy in the context of China. Nevertheless, India, as a core member of the I2U2, could significantly benefit from Israel’s diplomatic and military presence in the region to counter China’s growing influence in the region. Therefore, given the geopolitical sensitivity of the region as a key gateway to energy security, India should act wisely and maintain a low-profile neutral stance while formally advocating dialogue and regional stability.
This article is written by Sanjay Turi and Surya Prakash Nautiyal, Doctoral Candidate, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
