New Delhi As the Election Commission of India (ECI) prepares for a hectic electoral process starting in April, Dhrubo Jyoti takes a look at the elections in those four states.
west bengal
It is one of the most politically important states of India, but is also a state that has been ruled by only two parties for the last six decades. As West Bengal heads towards elections, history is pointing towards Mamata Banerjee vying for a fourth term in one of the most-watched elections this term. At 73, the Trinamool Congress chief has established a tight-knit and locally rooted political organization which she rules with an iron fist, a vital lever in a state with high levels of political violence. He has built a network of welfare schemes, which has strengthened his already strong base among the poor and women – especially in rural areas. And he has strategically leveraged regional pride and Bengali culture to portray the BJP as outsiders and reiterated that no one has a deeper grassroots connection with the state than his “didi”.
The challenge for the Bharatiya Janata Party is difficult but not invincible. The party has tried to get its domestic affairs in order – the state unit is notorious for factionalism – and the direct intervention of Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s massive rally at the Brigade Parade Ground this week will deflate it. The party will hope to emulate the 2019 Lok Sabha results – its best so far – when it won in 130 assembly constituencies (it won 18 Lok Sabha seats compared to TMC’s 22) and erase the losses of 2021 and 2024 (when it won 77 assembly constituencies and 12 Lok Sabha seats respectively). The party has established itself as the main opposition party, defeating the Congress and the Left. It has managed to bring its favorite issues – religious polarization, infiltration, appeasement, infrastructure development – into the mainstream. But it continues to struggle to match the TMC’s organizational depth in Bengal’s vast rural areas and seat-rich TMC stronghold South Bengal. The party will hope to take advantage of the anti-incumbency wave in the economically struggling state, especially among the youth and urban areas. A strong performance and even a victory would mean a lot to Moon in the state where Jan Sangh founder Syama Prasad Mukherjee was born. It is expected that Banerjee’s appeal, corruption allegations and the controversy surrounding the special intensive review will leave its mark.
Tamil Nadu
Five years ago, when the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) came to power in Tamil Nadu after being out for a decade, it seemed the party was set to dominate one of India’s most prosperous states for a long time. Its leader, Chief Minister MK Stalin, had a much bigger stature than the handful of leaders who were trying (unsuccessfully) to fill the political void left by then All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa, who died in 2016.
But as the southern state heads to the polls this summer, the race appears closer than initially thought. Driven by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has managed to put together an alliance that looks formidable, at least numerically, even if it lacks something in chemistry, its chief ministerial face, E Palaniswami, has a reputation for being an able administrator, and the party continues to retain its base in the western part of the state and among the Gounders.
The DMK-led alliance, which has won the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is particularly strong and boosted by Stalin, who remains the tallest leader in the state. But many party MLAs are deeply unpopular, allegations of corruption and poor governance are rife, and the second-tier leadership is almost non-existent despite the party promoting Udhayanidhi Stalin. It has attempted to broaden its coalition by bringing on board many smaller, caste-based organizations and strengthening its hold on influential communities such as Dalits. A tough fight is expected in the southern parts of the state and for support for groups like Mukkulathor, which is sharply divided.
A third factor, actor-turned-politician Vijay, threatens to complicate the calculations in a state where politics has held little sway beyond the two Dravidian chieftains. Vijay hopes to build on his cult following among the youth, especially men, but his party, TVK, has neither a declared agenda nor a grassroots network. In such a situation, his fate may be like that of Prashant Kishor, who was welcomed by the media before the Bihar elections, but later became irrelevant. But in a close contest all bets are off.
Kerala
It is not everyday that both the major forces contesting elections in a major Indian state are fighting for their existence. Yet, this is exactly the pre-poll scenario in Kerala. It is the only state controlled by the Left, which has failed to expand elsewhere in the country or capture its previous strongholds of West Bengal or Tripura. Reshaping the image of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the cadre-based party will be hoping for a repeat of the 2021 upset, when it flipped the script in the state, where power alternated between the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front, and won. However, it is not looking easy for Vijayan to score a hat-trick. The party has been dogged by corruption allegations – notably the scams involving the alleged theft of temple gold at Sabarimala and the Karuvannur Service Co-operative Bank case. There is no second level visible in the party, which has also faced defeat in the recent local body elections.
In general, this should mean a smooth road for the UDF. But in typical fashion, the Congress already has too many contenders for the chief minister’s post – without winning anything. Prominent among them are state opposition leader VD Satheesan and senior leader Ramesh Chennithala. The party is battling internal strife and completing the seat agreement within the front may be a challenge. After being out of power for a decade, the Morcha is also fighting with all its might. Another defeat could mean that the Bharatiya Janata Party starts trying hard for the main opposition post.
What about BJP? The party has made every possible effort to ensure that it can carry forward its performance in the Lok Sabha, where it won its first parliamentary seat in the state, and more importantly, got almost a fifth of the votes. She hopes to improve her vote tally by one in 2016 and capture a larger share of Christian and Nair votes. Much will depend on how the influential Ezhava vote fares.
Assam
Few major states in India have been shaped in the image of the Chief Minister, like Assam. Himanta Biswa Sarma attempts to wear many hats – master strategist, defender of indigenous Assamese, capable administrator and controversial leader. More than anything else, the election is going to be a referendum on the five-year rule of a man who has handed over the Northeast to the BJP but also alienated a large part of his state with his controversial comments about undocumented immigrants. In a border state with a turbulent history of infiltration and violent movements that have resulted in massacres, cross-border migration remains an emotive and volatile issue and Sarma has attempted to stoke rifts in his coalition by escalating rhetoric against those he derisively calls “Miyas” – or Bengali-speaking Muslims. The party is hoping for a third consecutive victory on promises of infrastructure, a controversial eviction drive that has forced thousands of people to live in temporary camps, and granting Scheduled Tribe status to six communities.
On the other side stands Gaurav Gogoi, whose father Tarun Gogoi – also Sarma’s former mentor – was the last person to win three consecutive elections in Assam. The 43-year-old leader is relatively inexperienced and is struggling with the chief minister’s attempts to link him to Pakistan. He will be encouraged by the fact that anti-incumbency and corruption may work in Congress’ favor and by the fact that there are signs of fatigue in Upper Assam, from where Gaurav Gogoi won the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat two years ago even though the Chief Minister personally campaigned against him. The party is trying hard to avoid any polarization in a state where communal and regional politics are often volatile. Also important will be the performance of the All India United Democratic Front, run by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, which once had a strong base in lower Assam but has faded in recent times. It is expected that the contentious delimitation of seats in Assam – this is the first assembly election after the 2023 exercise – will also shape the elections.
