When Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi stood up to speak in the Lok Sabha on Friday, he did not start with the argument of losing south-seats, which has been in the news since the introduction of the delimitation bill linked to the women’s quota amendment. He started with a different charge altogether.
“This is not a bill for women. It has nothing to do with women empowerment,” she said in the House.
He then offered what he described as a “simple test”.
“Bring back that old bill right now and we will help you pass it for implementation from this very moment,” he said.
The “old bill” he was referring to Nari Shakti Vandan Act It has already been passed unanimously by both houses in 2023. It provides for 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.
It is to be implemented after the completion of the first census after its commencement. This would mean that the much-delayed census that is being conducted now is likely to end in 2027. After that census, there will be a Delimitation Commission to decide on the number of seats and the maps. This will move women’s quota implementation beyond the 2029 elections.
Now, three new bills – Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, Delimitation Bill 2026, and UT Laws (Amendment) Bill 2026 – Remove ‘latest census’ condition.
These bills propose a system by which the government, with a simple majority in Parliament, can decide to use any census; And order delimitation for Lok Sabha and Assembly seats.
Government statements show that at present this scheme is limited to the Lok Sabha only.
The government has argued that for now this change – to increase seats by at least 50% – will lead to quicker implementation of the women’s quota. Suppose, seats increased from 543 to 816; And an additional one-third may be reserved for women.
But the opposition has opposed it Instead of this, 2023 women’s quota law can be implemented. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has said the party is fine with implementing it even in the current House strength of 543, without increasing it to 816, or a maximum of 850, as provided for in the bill.
Congress has alleged that the real purpose of the new bills is to provoke delimitation Soon – with women’s reservation used as cover.
Delimitation cannot be done ‘quickly’
Basically, the delimitation has now been brought forward by almost 50 years, and is to take place after 2026.
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor on Friday said that there is a need for deep discussion on the complete redrawing or delimitation of the electoral map, as population alone cannot be the basis.
There are genuine concerns, especially in the south with low population-growth states and among caste groups who want to have their say before any delimitation.
The logic is straightforward – that there are “No dispute” With 33% women quota; But do not rush into delimitation without addressing complex questions.
One of those questions is about caste.
A major charge against the Modi regime is that the latest bills are designed to “circumvent” Caste enumeration is being done under Census 2026-27.
This is the first census that is counting all castes after almost 100 years – SCs and STs have already been counted. Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC, ST) already get some quota in Parliament and Assemblies.
This census data may impact what and how much is given to Other Backward Classes (OBCs). As per the estimates till now, they form the largest part of India’s population.
obc question
Rahul Gandhi had clearly said about this in the Lok Sabha: “What they (the government) are trying to do is to avoid giving power and representation to my OBC brothers and sisters.”
“The government is trying to ensure that caste census has nothing to do with representation for the next 10-15 years,” he alleged.
He linked it to a specific chronology:
- Union Cabinet approved caste census As part of the ongoing national census – the first such exercise since 1931 – last year.
- But the delimitation exercise, as now proposed by the latest bills, will use the 2011 census and not the new data that will arrive in 2026-27.
- Amit Shah has promised that there will be only 50% increase in seats, there will be no change in the share of the states. But the bill doesn’t say so.
- The Delimitation Bill 2026 states that “the latest published census on the date of constitution of the Delimitation Commission” will be used when the government of the day can take a decision. Say, at the moment it means 2011 Analysis By think tank PRS India.
Samajwadi Party MP and former Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Yadav, who belongs to the OBC community, said the same in Parliament on Thursday.
“They are running away from the census because…the demand for reservation will increase,” he said, adding, “When we listen to the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi), he says he is from a backward class. But when it comes to reservation, I would like to hear the government say how much will be reserved for OBCs.” Amit Shah again underlined on Friday that PM Modi belongs to the OBC group.
constitutional difference exists
The demand for OBC quota even within women’s reservation is not new. In fact, this is one of the primary reasons why women’s reservation remained blocked in Parliament for years. The 81st Constitutional Amendment Bill for 33% women’s reservation was first introduced in 1996 under Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. It was discussed again in 1997 and 1998, but it collapsed each time.
A 2008 bill passed the Rajya Sabha examination in 2010 during the Congress-led UPA tenure, but was never voted on in the Lok Sabha because political consensus could not be reached.
This was due, consistently, to the insistence by parties representing OBC communities – such as the Samajwadi Party of UP and Bihar and the Rashtriya Janata Dal – that a sub-quota for OBC women be included.
Women are not a homogenous group, and caste and other factors affect different classes of women differently, she has argued – as have political scientists.
The legal issue is that this demand for OBC quota cannot be fulfilled at present.
The Constitution of India provides for only 15% and 7.5% reservation for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). It was recommended by a joint parliamentary committee in the 1990s obc reservation Women’s quota will not be considered at all “if the Constitution is amended to allow OBC quota”.
No amendment has ever been made to the OBC quota in Parliament and Assemblies. Because, at a minimum, it requires data. In particular, caste census data which would establish the demographic basis for such a claim.
why sequence matters
Last time a comprehensive caste census was conducted in India 1931,under the British.
After independence, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru decided to exclude caste-related data from the decennial census, arguing that it would reinforce social divisions. Counting of SC and ST continued, but counting of OBC stopped at the national level.
In 1980, Mandal Commission – Working without hard data – It is estimated that OBCs constitute 52% of India’s population. That figure became the basis for the 27% OBC reservation in government jobs implemented in 1990 and related decisions thereafter.
State-level surveys conducted in recent years suggest that the data of more than 50% OBCs may actually be correct. Bihar’s 2023 caste survey found that such classes constitute 63% of the state’s population, while the share of the general (“upper caste”) category is just 15.5%. In local level elections, OBCs have got quota in Bihar and some other places. Telangana recently released its count, which showed OBCs at over 60%.
This is a pattern that shows that OBCs are much larger than 27% job-quota figure.
This was the opposition’s argument for a nationwide caste census. Last year, before the Modi regime softened, Rahul Gandhi was demanding caste census.
“Detailed caste data could strengthen the demand for proportional representation, especially from OBC communities, making seat redistribution far more competitive,” it said. Manoj K JhaA professor who is a Rajya Sabha MP from RJD.
Political scientist Zoya Hasan has argued that the BJP, which has carefully electorally clustered its upper caste base with some OBC groups, “reluctantly agreed to the caste census”.
He said the 2011 census is “safe” for the BJP as the basis for delimitation. WireBecause it does not contain OBC data. Caste enumeration, as is being done in the current census, could “empower OBCs to demand more and possibly look beyond the BJP”.
He has said, “This could reshape political calculations and potentially change the existing balance of power.”
what the bill doesn’t say
Home Minister Amit Shah has told the Lok Sabha that the Union Cabinet has already approved the caste enumeration, and such data will be collected in the second phase of the ongoing census.
But the delimitation exercise, as the bill is written, will use the 2011 census.
Both PM Modi and Amit Shah have alleged that the opposition is making “technical excuses” “But-but” (If-buts) Because they “really oppose women’s quota”.
But Rahul Gandhi has debated the opposition’s position in the House and on social media.
He has said that if delimitation happens first using 2011 data, it will lock the constituency boundaries and seat distribution for the foreseeable future. When the latest caste data comes later – whatever it reveals about OBC size and the matter of political reservations – will come only after the map has already been redrawn. “The government is trying to ensure that the caste census has nothing to do with representation for the next 10-15 years,” he said.
Congress leaders also noted that the quota for women in 2023 has already been decided; But questions of caste and regional representation cannot be resolved by changing laws.
Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Thursday attacked Amit Shah, saying “everyone knows” his plan.
Referring to a famous royal advisor who is believed to have lived here 2,300 years ago, she said, The House laughed collectively and said, “Had Chanakya been alive, he would have been stunned by your political machinations.” Amit Shah also smiled.
“My sister achieved something in five minutes that I probably couldn’t do in 20 years of my political career,” Rahul Gandhi said in his speech on Friday, which had to make Amit Shah ji smile.
At the moment, the government does not have the two-thirds majority required to pass a constitutional amendment anyway. And it does not have the support of the opposition for its alleged “genuine” intentions. The debate will not stop. And then the caste data will come sometime in the next two years.
