WASHINGTON—The United States has burned so many weapons in Iran that some administration officials are increasingly assessing that the United States cannot fully implement contingency plans to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if a Chinese invasion occurs in the near future, U.S. officials said.
The US has fired more than 1,000 long-range Tomahawk missiles since the war with Iran began on February 28, according to US officials who declined to provide exact figures, as well as 1,500 to 2,000 critical air-defense missiles, including THAAD, Patriot and Standard missile interceptors.
Officials said it could take up to six years to completely replace those stockpiles, prompting discussions within the administration about adjusting operational plans in preparation for any potential presidential order for the military to defend Taiwan.
The Pentagon is planning for multiple scenarios, regardless of the changing geopolitical tides and political winds in Washington. US officials say there is no sign of conflict with China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to hold a high-level summit with President Trump in Beijing next month, and China’s military is grappling with a purge of generals.
The US follows a “one China” policy, acknowledging that there is only one Chinese government – the People’s Republic of China – even though the US maintains relations with the self-governing democracy of Taiwan. Trump, like most of his predecessors, has not publicly committed to sending US troops to defend the island from invasion.
But if a conflict occurs, officials say the US would face a shortage of ammunition in the short term while it restocks, potentially putting troops at increased risk. Other administration officials argued that the US could shorten the timeline for munition replacement with heavy investments in the defense-industrial base and a new emphasis on the production of low-cost munitions.
You.S., familiar with the situation of war material. Officials did not elaborate on how the reduction would impact China-related plans. The US intelligence community assessed in March that Beijing War against Taiwan unlikely to start in 2027 And there was no set timeline for unification, although China wants full sovereign control of the island by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding.
Many senior US officials rejected the idea that the US was completely unprepared for a near-term conflict with China and that the loss of munitions would impact its preparedness.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific who will be responsible for carrying out the war, said in congressional testimony Tuesday that the Iran war is giving U.S. troops valuable combat experience and that he supports ongoing operations in the Middle East.
“For now,” Paparo told the Senate Armed Services Committee, “I don’t think any real costs will be imposed on our ability to deter China.”
White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt disputed the story, saying, “The entire premise of this story is false.”
He said, “The United States has the most powerful military in the world, loaded with more than enough weapons and ammunition at home and around the world to effectively defend the homeland and achieve any military operation directed by the Commander in Chief.”
Sean Parnell, chief Pentagon spokesman, said the US military “has everything necessary to execute at the time and place the President chooses.” Since Trump took office, he said, “We have executed many successful operations across combatant commands, while ensuring that the U.S. military has a deep reservoir of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
National security analysts are closely monitoring munitions stockpiles and any potential impact on the US’s ability to respond to other crises around the world.
Center for Strategic and International Studies issued a report Similar concerns about dwindling stockpiles were expressed on Tuesday. Based on pre-war inventories, CSIS estimated that Iran’s spent munitions would represent approximately 27% of the Tomahawk stockpile, approximately 36% of the JSAM, one-third of the SM-6, approximately half of the SM-3, more than two-thirds of the Patriot interceptors, and more than 80% of the THAAD interceptors. This means that the lack of defensive weapons such as missile interceptors is more obvious.
“It will take many years for us to rebuild those inventories,” said CSIS senior advisor Mark Cancian, who co-authored the report.
On Capitol Hill, Paparo said it would take one to two years for major defense contractors to ramp up production of munitions, though he said the U.S. has ample supplies.
On April 8, General Dan Kaine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the United States, together with Gulf countries, has intercepted 1,700 ballistic missiles and unilateral attack drones since the start of the Iran war. The high-tempo operation, which came less than a year after the US spent interceptors protecting Israel during the country’s 12-day war with Iran, was a revelation. Worrying gap in US supply.
China is a much tougher rival than Iran. According to one, it has more than 600 nuclear warheads and an expanding intercontinental ballistic missile program December 2025 Defense Department report. Analysts say that Beijing’s fleet of military drones is also increasing.
Experts believe that America has a much larger nuclear arsenal than China. Nevertheless, China’s nuclear and other weapons, combined with a vast naval arsenal and large ground forces, make any US war to defend Taiwan one of the riskiest operations for which the Pentagon maintains contingency plans.
The report indicated that China’s options for forcibly reuniting Taiwan with the mainland included “an amphibious assault, shelling attack, and possibly a maritime blockade.”
war games The campaign, run by a US think tank, found that a battle over Taiwan would be brutal, leading to the loss of thousands of American, Chinese and Allied troops, as well as many ships and hundreds of aircraft.
Analysts say a large US stockpile of weapons is vital to countering China’s array of missiles, which would likely be fired at aircraft and warships to deny them freedom of movement, a strategy known as “anti-access, area denial.”
“The US would have to fight China in a way that would be potentially much more costly and dangerous for the US military,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. “You’re going to get more erosion.”
The US has also pulled air defense equipment from the Pacific to support operations in the Middle East. According to Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of US Forces Korea, it previously sent radars to South Korea ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer, and is in the process of taking interceptors. Brunson, who was testifying with Paparo on Tuesday, told lawmakers that the THAAD system remains in Korea.
Trump administration officials have long said the US should conserve its weapons for a great power war with China, which would require Washington to prevent sending its stockpiles to Ukraine or using them. Target fewer adversaries abroadLike the Houthis in Yemen.
The Pentagon is rushing to buy more munitions and putting pressure on defense companies increase production. It is also diverting interceptors intended for European countries and shipping them to U.S. stocks, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter. The White House is pushing for big investments in the defense-industrial base to replenish the US arsenal, asking Congress to approve $350 billion For critical munitions in the FY 2027 budget.
Defense companies RTX and Lockheed Martin recently signed deals with the Pentagon to significantly increase weapons production in the coming years. Lockheed said it would quadruple production of THAAD and PAC-3 Patriot interceptors, while RTX announced it was accelerating deliveries of Tomahawks, advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, and several standard missile variants. The Pentagon has contacted American automakers and manufacturers about to help boost arms production.
These efforts are part of a larger effort led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to increase defense manufacturing and reform the Pentagon’s acquisition process. “Our objective is simple: to transform the entire acquisition system to operate on a war footing,” Hegseth said in a speech last November.
At the same time, Trump had asserted on social media last month that America has an “almost unlimited supply of medium and upper medium grade munitions.” Despite a two-week ceasefire Trump increased On Tuesday, the president repeatedly warned that the US could resume its bombing campaign if Iran does not reach a deal to end its nuclear work.
Write to Alexander Ward alex.ward@wsj.comShelby Holiday At shelby.holliday@wsj.com And on Yoko Kubota yoko.kubota@wsj.com
