Exit Poll 2026: From Supreme Court to street fighting, how did the SIR narrative play out in Bengal? | india news

Last updated:April 29, 2026, 20:16 IST

The SIR became the main focus of the election contest, resulting in the removal of at least 91 lakh voters, representing more than 10 percent of Bengal’s electorate by April.

The revision of the all-India voter list could be one of the major deciding factors for who wins in West Bengal, where pollsters have predicted a tight contest between the ruling TMC and the opposition BJP with the saffron party taking the lead.

Exit polls were published soon after voting ended for the second phase in West Bengal on Wednesday, also indicating the end of the 2026 assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

But the political landscape in Bengal has been fundamentally changed by the Special Intensive Revision of Voter List (SIR), which has not only turned into a fierce rivalry between the TMC government and the Election Commission of India (ECI), but also raises questions over the security of identity as well as basic voting rights. Initially intended as a routine update, it became the focus of electoral competition resulting in the deletion of at least 91 lakh voters, representing more than 10 percent of the state’s electorate by April.

What was Sir’s story about?

The SIR exercise divided Bengal into two interpretations of what the massive extinction represents. The ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) defined it not as a data-cleaning process but as a “constitutional offence”.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who herself appeared in the Supreme Court to argue against the SIR practice in the state, alleged that it specifically targets minorities, Rajbanshis and the Matua community. He described it as a “targeted” attempt to disenfranchise those opposing the Centre.

At a rally in Chakdaha, he alleged that in districts with significant minority population, names were “picked and removed like lice” from the voter list. For the TMC, the ballot paper became a defensive tool – a means to prove its existence to voters and protect their political rights as a precursor to the National Register of Citizens (NRC).

Meanwhile, the BJP defended the SIR as an important security measure to “cleanse” the voter lists. Union Home Minister Amit Shah described it as necessary to protect the state from being “polluted” by illegal immigrants and “fake voters”.

Opposition leader Suvendu Adhikari was even more blunt, saying, “There is no place in West Bengal for Bangladeshi Muslims” and that the rolls should be “purged once and for all”. The BJP’s narrative appeals to voters concerned about demographic changes by framing the 2026 election as the last stand for “native” residents against alleged TMC-sponsored infiltration.

Identity versus governance?

Due to the scale of the SIR extinction traditional campaign issues – corruption, unemployment and welfare – were relegated to the background.

Just a few months ago, the BJP had planned to focus on TMC’s alleged “15 years of misgovernance” by highlighting the school jobs scam, RG Kar Medical College rape case and women’s safety in Sandeshkhali. In turn, TMC was relying on popular welfare schemes like “Brand Didi” and Lakshmir Bhandar, which provide financial assistance to women.

But “Arithmetic of Extinction” went beyond these topics. Political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said the question shifted from whether TMC governed well to whether the state recognized an individual as a voter. While the economic crisis was a factor in areas like Jangalmahal, in the state’s political bastions, conversations at tea stalls and market squares revolved almost exclusively around the “deleted names”.

The Left Front accused both major parties of using the SIR to avoid discussing inflation and the decline of local industry, and said that “identity creates more intense fear” than economic policy.

What about TMC’s southern stronghold and the Matuas?

The electoral consequences of SIR were felt most acutely in TMC’s southern fort and Matua refugee belt, where the number of voters removed often exceeded the previous victory margin.

In at least 44 assembly constituencies, the number of names cut from the list is more than the victory margin in 2021. In North 24 Parganas, the district with the largest Matua population, more than 12.6 lakh names have been removed.

The impact here is particularly ironic because the BJP’s rise in the region since 2019 was built on the promise of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. Now, the names of many Hindu refugees who have applied for citizenship are missing from the voter list.

This led to a “political drift” in the refugee area, with some Matua families withdrawing allegiance to the TMC and feeling betrayed by the same party that had promised them certainty. This tension is expressed in the Matua “first family” in Thakurnagar, which is now divided into two camps.

In Bagda constituency, TMC has fielded Madhuparna Thakur against her sister-in-law, BJP’s Soma Thakur, turning the community’s struggle for recognition into a literal family feud. In the high-profile seat of Bhawanipur, where Banerjee is contesting against Suvendu Adhikari, more than 51,000 names (about 25 per cent of the voters) were deleted.

While TMC had won the seat by at least 58,000 votes in the last bypoll, the massive scale of deletions across Kolkata – nearly 7 lakh names – has turned the metropolis into an unexpected battleground. In districts like Murshidabad, 4.55 lakh names were removed during the decision process alone, giving rise to fears that the ruling party’s strongest constituencies were being systematically eliminated.

What about the opposition?

Following the publication of the final voter list, widespread protests broke out across Bengal. The protesters, claiming to be genuine voters with valid documents, blocked major roads including National Highways 12 and 27, burnt tires and put up barricades.

In Malda, the situation turned violent when seven judicial officers engaged in the SIR were surrounded by an angry mob, leading the Supreme Court to describe Bengal as the “most polarized state”. These protests are not just partisan rallies, many see them as a desperate fight for “political survival”.

In districts like Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar, people took out silent marches and submitted memorandums to administrative officials demanding restoration of their names. Data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) shows that around 32.6 lakh names were restored following tribunal orders, but many more have been left out, leaving a large section of the population in a state of “panic”.

How was the voter turnout?

However, this climate of fear and exclusion had a paradoxical effect on voter participation. The first phase of voting on April 23 witnessed a historic 93.19 percent turnout.

Observers attributed this unprecedented surge to “fear of exclusion”. For many people, the act of voting has been transformed into a “defensive” measure – a physical demonstration of citizenship that they hope will protect them from future disenfranchisement.

Now that voting is over, it looks like SIR has successfully redrawn the electoral map. Voters have reduced from 7.66 crore to 6.77 crore.

While the BJP believes the “pure” rolls will blunt TMC’s gains in the minority-heavy belt, the ruling party hopes the sense of threat will trigger “almost complete consolidation” of its core base. Ultimately, the election has become more than a contest over who will come to power next and has evolved into a fundamental referendum on belonging.

But while exit polls can only gauge the mood of the voters, a question remains even before the counting of votes in Bengal on May 4: In a state where 91 lakh voters have gone missing, who really has the right to decide its future?

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