Assam When Gaurav Gogoi stepped into Jorhat during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he once hailed him by calling him “Amar Lora” (our son) and embraced him as a son of the soil. Gogoi was not only the deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, but also the chief ministerial face of the party and the living legacy of late chief minister Tarun Gogoi. However, that emotional connect did not translate into votes in the 2026 assembly elections.Gogoi seen as Congress‘The final nail in the coffin of BJP in Assam, but the grand old party has once again lost, underlining its ever-shrinking footprint in the state.Gogoi’s defeat is not just a personal blow but also reflects a deep churn in Assam politics, where legacy, identity and strategy collided and the Congress lagged behind.
Why does Gogoi’s defeat matter?
Gogoi was not just another candidate in this election. He was the chief ministerial face of the Congress, its most prominent campaigner, and arguably its best hope to challenge the dominance of Himanta Biswa Sarma.As a three-time MP and former deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, Gogoi had both experience and expectations. Still the decision turned out to be different. Gogoi did not lose just like that. He lost to BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami by a huge margin of 23,182.His defeat also ended his attempt to transition from national to state politics, a move that was considered crucial to the revival of the Congress in Assam.After the defeat, Gaurav Gogoi said that he takes ‘full moral responsibility’. “As state Congress president, I take full moral responsibility. I also thank our political workers (who) gave their full potential,” ANI quoted the Assam Congress chief as saying.“We accept the mandate of the people. We express our gratitude to those who voted for us and supported us.” Congress will reach out to those who did not vote for us. We express our gratitude to the grassroots Congress workers who are standing with us despite the problems. We have seen a new Congress,” he said.He also indicated uneasiness within the party regarding the result. He said, “People have not accepted this result. We had thought that the contest would be a close contest. But the results on many seats are worth thinking about. On Saturday (May 9), we will call every newly elected MLA (of the party).”
the party fort collapsed
If Gogoi’s defeat was symbolic, then Debabrata Saikia’s defeat in Nazira was equally significant. Saikia, who was the leader of the opposition since 2016, lost his family bastion to BJP’s Mayur Borgohain.The double defeat of Gogoi and Saikia, both sons of former chief ministers, indicated a deep erosion of the Congress’ traditional base. Upper Assam has been the party’s stronghold for decades. But that citadel collapsed in 2026.Barring Sivasagar, where ally Akhil Gogoi was in the fray, the Congress lost almost all the assembly constituencies under Gogoi’s Lok Sabha constituency. Another ally, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, was defeated in Khowang.What remained was a very narrow political footprint. The Congress managed to win only 19 seats, down from 29 in 2021 and most of these wins came from Muslim-majority constituencies. Its once broad coalition of support has now been reduced to a more limited, regionally focused vote bank.
The scale of BJP’s dominance
While the Congress struggled, the BJP-led NDA moved forward with remarkable clarity. In the 126-member assembly, the NDA secured 102 seats, with the BJP alone crossing the majority mark on its own for the first time in Assam by winning 82 seats.For Himanta, this victory confirmed his political dominance. Contesting from Jalukbari, he retained his seat by a huge margin of 89,434 votes.Sarma’s rise has been one of the most consequential political changes in Assam. After leaving the Congress in 2015, he played a key role in expanding the BJP’s footprint across the Northeast. His leadership style, combining welfare delivery with a sharp political message, has reshaped the electoral dynamics of the state.
Why did Gogoi’s strategy fail?
The BJP introduced Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi as the “3G” trio, which was widely seen as a politically loaded label.The campaign also tried to portray Congress as a party associated with “Miya” Muslims, a term used for Bengali-speaking Muslims of migrant origin. This constantly repeated message has influenced voter perception.This made it difficult for the Congress to expand beyond Muslim-majority constituencies and garner support among indigenous Assamese communities, including the Ahom community, from which the Gogoi family comes.Many factors contributed to Gogoi’s defeat, some structural, some personal.A major challenge was the Congress Party’s inability to reconnect with its traditional support bases. The Ahom community, tea plantation tribes and sections of Hindu voters, who were once the core of Congress’s strength, have gradually drifted away over the years.Another issue was Gogoi’s perceived inaccessibility. Many party workers and voters felt that he was not visible enough on the ground during the campaign. In a state where grassroots engagement matters so much, this perception hurts.The politics of heritage and identity, especially his reliance on his Ahom roots, also did not yield the desired results.
Effect of delimitation?
The 2023 delimitation exercise also played an important role in reshaping the political landscape of Assam.The number of Muslim-majority constituencies reduced from 35 to 22, significantly reducing the electoral scope of the Congress. While Muslims account for about 30% of the Assam electorate, their concentration of around 75 lakh voters and fewer seats has left the party politically isolated.
Alliance’s strategy under question
Congress’s alliance strategy also came under scrutiny. While the party formed a coalition of six parties at the last minute, including leftists and regional players, it failed to create a unified, compelling alternative.In earlier elections, divisions within the opposition had already helped the BJP. For example, in 2021, the opposition’s vote share was close to that of the NDA, but fragmentation led to a significant difference in seats.The election results have triggered fresh scrutiny of the opposition coalition’s strategy, leadership choices and social reach. While regional allies attempted to field young and high-profile candidates, including Gen Z faces like Kunki Choudhary and Gyanashree Bora, the experiment failed to translate into electoral gains.Repeated electoral failures may increase organizational fatigue within the Congress and its allies. Senior journalist Amarendra Deka said a defeat of this scale often gives rise to internal recriminations, leadership challenges and cadre demoralisation, problems the Congress has been grappling with in Assam for years.Even in 2026, despite coordination efforts, the alliance lacked coherence and mass appeal.
personal attacks
Personal allegations were also made in the campaign. Sarma has repeatedly targeted Gaurav Gogoi over his wife Elizabeth Colbourne, who was born in Britain. He alleged that a Pakistan-based firm had hired him and later transferred him to India, with his salary allegedly being given to a Pakistani national. Sarma also accused Gogoi of secretly visiting Pakistan in 2013 without informing the authorities, and claimed that he might have taken “some kind of training there”.Furthermore, he alleged that Gogoi’s wife collected information about India while working at a firm and passed it on to Pakistan, claiming that she had visited Pakistan nine times while she was associated with two Indian organizations.
The scale of Congress’s defeat
The scale of the BJP-led NDA’s victory in Assam has pushed the opposition to its weakest position in recent memory, raising serious questions over its future political relevance in the state. IIn the 126-member assembly, the NDA secured a record 102 seats, with the BJP alone winning 82, enough to secure a majority on its own for the first time in Assam.In contrast, the Congress-led opposition coalition suffered a major setback. The Congress managed to win only 19 seats, down from 29 in 2021, while ally Raijor Dal got just two seats. AIUDF and Trinamool CongressWhich contested the elections separately, winning two and one seats respectively.Political observers believe that the opposition failed to produce leadership capacity capable of matching the political dominance of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Despite the visibility of leaders like Gogoi, Raijor Dal’s Akhil Gogoi and AJP chief Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the alliance lacked a unified mass appeal to counter the BJP’s aggressive and disciplined campaign machinery.
Gogoi’s political debut
Gaurav Gogoi started his political career in 2014 by winning from Kaliabor, defeating BJP’s Mrinal Kumar Saikia by 93,000 votes. He strengthened his position by winning re-election in 2019 against Moni Madhab Mahanta of Assam Gana Parishad by a margin of 2,09,994 votes.In 2024, he moved to Jorhat and defeated BJP’s Topon Kumar Gogoi, receiving a warm response from the public, with supporters calling him “Amar Lora” (our son), a reflection of his growing connect with the people.Gogoi served as the Deputy Leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party from 2020 to 2024 and was later appointed President of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee in 2025.With the Congress losing three consecutive assembly elections since 2016, and seeing its seat tally shrinking each time, the party faces a tough rebuilding exercise in Assam. If the opposition hopes to remain electorally relevant until 2031, it needs to urgently rethink its political message, rebuild grassroots structures and build a broad social coalition.Failing this, the BJP’s dominance in Assam may become even stronger, and the opposition will remain a fragmented force jostling for political space.
