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Now the question is not whether Vijay has entered Tamil Nadu politics or not. The question is, will the system allow him to stay?
For the first time in decades, Tamil Nadu is witnessing the collapse of political predictability. File photo/PTI
Tamil Nadu woke up to political shock on the morning of 4 May.
For decades, the state was dominated by two major Dravidian forces—the DMK and the AIADMK.
Governments changed, alliances changed, leaders rose and fell, but the system largely remained the same.
And then he became a leader from actor Vijay and his party, TVK. What many had dismissed as structureless star power had suddenly turned into the biggest political earthquake to hit Tamil Nadu in years.
Flashing numbers on the television screen told the story. TVK had won 108 seats, just ten short of the majority mark. DMK had suffered a big setback. AIADMK also failed to regain its lost ground.
The people of Tamil Nadu had clearly voted for change. It took a few days, but with the help of Congress, Left, VCK and IUML, Vijay’s TVK has now crossed the magic figure he needed to become the new Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. Vijay now has the support of 120 MLAs and is going to take oath as CM soon.
But what’s the inside scoop on “Game of Thrones” playing out in Chennai all this week? Will Vijay be able to run a stable government despite a small majority?
First of all let’s talk about backroom games.
Elections are only half the battle in politics. Forming a government is the real war.
Panic and opportunity came together within the AIADMK camp. After the Tamil Nadu results were disappointing for the NDA, senior leaders remained busy till late night on 4 May. Edappadi K Palaniswami—EPS—quickly realized that the old political system was collapsing.
If Vijay manages to become the Chief Minister, Tamil Nadu politics may permanently move beyond the DMK-AIADMK era. And so, in one of the most dramatic twists ever, channels of communication between the bitter rivals were quietly opened.
EPS contacted DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin. Privately, EPS is said to have expressed grief over MK Stalin’s defeat from his seat.
For generations, DMK and AIADMK cadres have treated each other like arch enemies. Entire political careers were built attacking the other side. But now, whispers are beginning to emerge that sections within both camps are considering the unthinkable of joining hands to stop Vijay.
Even within the DMK there was confusion. Some leaders reportedly felt that it was strategically smarter to support AIADMK from outside than letting Vijay emerge as a new political force. Others strongly opposed the idea, arguing that the party’s entire identity was built around defeating the AIADMK, not saving it.
As celebrations began outside the TVK offices, something different began to unfold behind closed doors in Chennai.
Amidst the uncertainty, a remarkable meeting also took place between superstar Rajinikanth and MK Stalin.
Meanwhile, another rebellion was quietly brewing within the AIADMK. Senior leader C Shanmugam is said to be exploring the possibility of taking a large group of MLAs to Vijay’s camp. Suddenly, every MLA mattered. Every phone call mattered. Every hotel meeting mattered.
EPS went to a resort in Puducherry where around 30 MLAs were staying – and told them that “good news” could come soon. The effort was to avoid partition at any cost. Incidentally, a split in the AIADMK is still not ruled out.
And then came the moment that confirmed just how serious the backstage conversations had become.
Left leader MA Baby publicly claimed that the DMK had indeed explored the possibility of an alliance with the AIADMK and had also approached the Left parties for support.
It was unbelievable for many ordinary supporters watching from home. Leaders whose parties fought bitterly for fifty years are now reportedly discussing cooperation – not for ideology, not for governance, but to fend off a political outsider.
But politics thrives on surprises. And the biggest surprise came from the Congress party.
When speculations about a possible anti-Vijay front were increasing, Congress announced Support for TVK’s government formation bid. Its five MLAs will support Vijay. Soon after, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge reportedly also reached out to Left leaders and tried to woo four of their MLAs in favor of TVK.
Suddenly, the momentum changed again.
Sensing the changing winds, the TVK ignored overtures from the AIADMK camp and instead focused on garnering support from the VCK and smaller allies. The race to the magic figure of 118 had become a thrilling political thriller.
But when political parties were struggling for numbers, another powerful institution came into limelight – Lok Bhavan.
Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar had taken charge in Tamil Nadu barely two months ago. Now he found himself in the middle of a perfect constitutional storm.
Encouraged by the public support and media momentum, Vijay wanted to move forward quickly. He made several trips to meet the Governor, pressing for an immediate swearing-in ceremony. TVK leaders argued that, as the largest formation with support commitments, they had the moral and democratic right to form a government.
But the Governor exercised caution.
Emphasizing the constitutional process, he asked Vijay to submit a formal letter of support to prove that he had the required numbers to gain majority in the Assembly. The delay immediately sparked political outrage.
Congress leaders accused the Governor of deliberately blocking Vijay. Opposition voices pointed to Arlekar’s ideological background and questioned whether there was pressure to prevent Vijay from assuming power early.
However, the governor said his only concern was sustainability. His office stressed that Tamil Nadu needs a government that can survive floor tests and ensure administrative continuity, not political chaos.
And thus, a major constitutional debate broke out across the country.
Should the Governor assess the majority support inside the Lok Bhavan through letters and meetings? Or should the decision be left entirely to the Assembly?
But beyond the numbers and processes, there was another question in Tamil Nadu politics.
Could DMK and AIADMK really work together?
For older voters, the very idea seemed unrealistic. This rivalry was not merely electoral – it was emotional and historical. It was in 1972 when MGR broke ties with DMK after differences with Karunanidhi and formed AIADMK. Since then, the two parties have fought some of the most fierce political battles in Indian history.
There was the unforgettable assembly confrontation of 1989 where Jayalalitha claimed that she was insulted and abused by DMK MLAs during the chaos. Karunanidhi’s midnight arrest took place in 2001 under Jayalalitha’s government – ​​scenes that shocked the country and symbolized the bitterness between the two camps.
And yet, according to multiple political accounts, the same rivals were discussing cooperation.
TVK immediately seized on the story. Vijay’s party accused both the Dravidian stalwarts of disrespecting the mandate. According to TVK leaders, voters deliberately rejected both DMK and AIADMK and chose change. Any attempt by old rivals to unite against the TVK was evidence that the political establishment was scared.
But as Vijay came closer to power, doubts persisted.
Because forming a government is one thing. Maintaining it is another matter.
On Saturday, both VCK and IUML extended support, taking TVK’s tally to 120.
If the numerical strength remains intact, the winning alliance will be just above the majority mark of 118, not beyond danger, just on the edge.
Most of the TVK MLAs are first time MLAs. Vijay himself does not have any administrative experience. The Left parties are only supporting from outside and will not directly join the government.
Congress will be part of the alliance with five MLAs. VCK has two MLAs. IUML has two. Every vote will count in the assembly.
And perhaps most importantly, the Left is historically associated with the DMK, which means that even from the opposition benches, the DMK can maintain influence over the survival of the government.
That is why many believe that if the Vijay government is formed, it may be under constant pressure – vulnerable to defections, bargain-hunting and political instability.
But perhaps this uncertainty also makes this moment historic.
Because for the first time in decades, Tamil Nadu is witnessing the collapse of political predictability. Old scripts no longer guarantee victory. It no longer seems impossible to overcome old rivalries. And a state that was once dominated by two political giants suddenly finds itself looking at an entirely new chapter.
Can a government with a very small majority last for 5 years? Are there going to be re-elections soon?
Now the question is not whether Vijay has entered Tamil Nadu politics or not. The question is, will the system allow him to stay?
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