Prime Minister (PM) Modi is scheduled to visit the United Arab Emirates on May 15 for a short visit. This will be his eighth visit after his first visit in August 2015 and comes at a very important time not only for India but for the entire West Asian region. The ongoing war in Iran, which was initiated by Israel and the US through preemptive strikes on February 28, has turned into a quagmire from which hopes of a peaceful exit are receding with each passing day. The war, now into its third month, is becoming the worst crisis the world has ever seen. Reason – The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, which is a vital lifeline for energy flows (crude oil, LPG and LNG) to the world, has disrupted the global economy like no other crisis and is rapidly crossing the limits of tolerance in most countries due to the persistent dual naval blockade (by Iran and the US, on both sides).
Compared with an average flow of about 20 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, which accounted for about 20% of global oil flows, the average outflow has dropped significantly. The number of ships that used to transit the strait on an average of 120–130 has declined to single digits. The International Energy Agency has warned that the current crisis is the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market. JPMorgan said in its assessment published by Bloomberg on May 9 that if oil supplies continue to fall, oil reserves could fall by 6.8 billion barrels by September this year, which would threaten the minimum threshold to keep oil pipelines and refineries running around the world.
The UAE is caught in the war between Iran and the US and Iran has targeted it the most, it is estimated that Iran has fired more than 500 missiles and thousands of drones at the UAE. Unlike all other Gulf countries, which have chosen not to actively participate in the war against Iran, the UAE joined the US in targeting Iran, and virtually became a partner of the US and Israel in the war. The war as well as sharp differences over the handling of vital oil and gas supplies led to the UAE taking the surprise decision to leave the global oil body, OPEC, with effect from May 1, thereby liberating it from restrictions imposed by OPEC on the production and sale of oil.
On the security front, reports of close cooperation between Israel and the UAE have proved true when it was confirmed that the UAE has become the first country where Israel has deployed its Iron Beam, a laser technology-based air defense system that has been highly successful in intercepting Iranian missiles. Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates has been one of the main bases from which the US has actively attacked Iranian targets. With battle lines clearly drawn between Iran and the UAE, a quick rapprochement is unlikely. Indeed on May 5, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the IRGC, which has exercised control over security issues in Iran during this war, published a map establishing a clear zone, depicting its naval blockade, bounded by two lines, extending from Qeshm Island and Umm Al Quwain (in the UAE) in the west to Mount Mobarak and Fujairah (in the UAE) in the east, which de facto encompasses the UAE’s territorial waters within its area of control.
Equally, if not more, important is the concern that the economic growth and prosperity that has come to symbolize the UAE in the region over the past three decades is at risk. Due to continuous bombing businesses are facing losses and expatriates are returning to their countries. The worst affected are large US-based companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google which have been declared legitimate targets by Iran in case the war escalates and the US-Israel combo targets Iran’s vital energy and other critical infrastructure. Also, the huge reduction in flights, tourists and trade is directly impacting its economy.
India UAE relations have emerged as the strongest and closest bilateral partnership not only for India but as a model for the world. The UAE was the first country with which India agreed to sign a comprehensive and strategic partnership agreement during PM Modi’s visit in August 2015. Similar agreements were later signed with many other countries in the region and around the world, but none achieved the depth and strength of the UAE. In February 2022, India and the UAE signed another landmark agreement, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This historic agreement, drawn up and signed in a record time of 88 days, has laid the foundation for a rapid growth in trade and economic partnership. The target of bilateral trade of $100 billion has already been achieved, now both the countries have set an ambitious target of doubling it to $200 billion by 2032.
As a result, UAE has now become India’s third largest trading partner and second largest export destination with exports worth over $36.63 billion in FY 2024-25. Meanwhile, India is the UAE’s second largest trading partner with exports worth more than $63.4 billion in FY 2024-25. It is also the fourth largest exporter of oil to India after Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq. Investment has also become an important component of this relationship. The two countries signed a bilateral investment treaty in February 2024, which came into effect from August 31, 2024. From April 2000 to March 2025, cumulative FDI from the UAE to India was $22.84 billion, making the UAE the seventh largest foreign investor in India.
Energy security is another key element of a strong partnership. The UAE is the fourth largest exporter of crude oil to India, after Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia (following the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022). The UAE, as a part of its comprehensive strategic partnership, is committed to ensuring stable supply of crude oil to India under all circumstances. As a part of this understanding, an agreement was signed during PM Modi’s visit to UAE in February 2018. It was signed between Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of the United Arab Emirates with the aim of filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve caverns by storing crude oil in ISPRL underground caverns in India. It is because of this reserve that India was in a relatively better position in terms of crude oil supply, as with other reserves and diverse supplies, India has been able to manage the energy crisis during the last 65 days of war. Also, the UAE, through its pipelines opening into the Arabian Sea, has been able to supply about 620,000 barrels of oil per day even during the current war in Iran, which has played a key role in India still having about 60 days of oil reserves.
After a slow start, defense and security are also becoming key pillars of engagement. The constantly evolving security situation in the region and the fact that the previous guarantee of security through the US can no longer be ensured provides greater scope and space for India to play a constructive role in the security of the region alongside the UAE. There is considerable similarity on key issues such as cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts, intelligence sharing, cyber security and even space technology. There are reports that the UAE has expressed interest in purchasing BrahMos missiles from India, especially after its spectacular success in Operation Sindoor.
During the visit, there is also a possibility that the Framework on Strategic Defense Partnership, which was signed during a short visit of the UAE President in early January this year, could be converted into a proper deal. This could include closer cooperation in defense industry, innovation and cyber security. With Saudi Arabia signing a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan in August 2025 and deepening tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE clearly evident, it is no surprise that the UAE is considering independent and more reliable options outside the Gulf and beyond the US guarantee. Its close cooperation with Israel and its growing proximity with India indicate a new security paradigm emerging in the region. For India, this could be a good opportunity to gain a foothold in the proactive security architecture in the region. With India-Israel relations already strong and growing, a similar partnership with the UAE, already a close ally of both, seems logical. However, the bigger challenge for India will be to maintain its neutrality and strategic autonomy and not get drawn into any active conflict in the future involving the UAE and any other regional country that is a major ally of India like Saudi Arabia or a traditional and civilizational friend like Iran.
There are many more issues on which India and the UAE cooperate closely, such as digital payments infrastructure (UPI), acceptance of the Indian rupee as legal tender in the UAE, close cooperation on people-to-people ties, given that around 4.5 million Indians live and work in the UAE and of course, the close personal relationship between the two leaders.
Prime Minister Modi’s regular visits to the UAE are not just diplomatic engagements; But these are testament to the extraordinary growth in bilateral relations over the past decade. The fact that the President of the UAE could visit India on an unannounced three-hour visit in January this year, when war clouds were looming over the West Asian region, and sign an important document like the Framework on Security and Defense Partnership, speaks volumes. Also, equally important is the fact that PM Modi is visiting UAE for a short period in the midst of war. The recent visits of the Indian National Security Advisor, Foreign Secretary and External Affairs Minister to the UAE and reciprocal visits by UAE officials not only speak of close ties but also show that the two countries share much in common on important bilateral and regional security and strategic issues. Israel visit caused diplomatic uproar
In addition to the expected findings from the visit, the context and timing are particularly important. The Bay Area today stands at a critical and unprecedented juncture. Most regional nations do not know who to trust within and even outside the region. The bubble of the American security umbrella has burst. In such turbulent times, India is certainly being sought as a preferred and trusted partner. UAE is the closest partner and hence can take the first step. However, India will have to remain alert, especially about the signals coming from this visit.
(Views expressed are personal)
This article is written by Rajeev Aggarwal, Senior Research Advisor, Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi.
