India’s smartphone market reported its weakest quarterly performance in recent years. The first quarter of this year felt the pressure as shipments slowed down due to reduced demand, coupled with a sharp increase in memory and storage prices, stemming from geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts estimate this dip to be between 2% and 5% of an otherwise around 35 million units shipment spread. Premium phones offer a ray of hope for phone makers in terms of margins and volume driven by aspiration, in a market scenario where consumers are mostly adopting a wait and watch approach to discretionary purchases.
For India specifically, projections have for long suggested that Apple will accelerate manufacturing of iPhones in India, for exports to other markets, to mitigate risks from the US and China trade tensions. Fresh cues for India will emerge in the coming days regarding whether existing estimates that Apple will assemble 28% of global iPhone shipments here by 2026, still hold true. Company CEO Tim Cook is visiting China with US President Donald Trump, along with other tech executives including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg and Tesla’s Elon Musk.
CyberMedia Research’s latest India Mobile Handset Market Review Report notes that while shipments of affordable phones declined 46% and the lower priced value for money segment slowed down as much as 12%, premium phones grew 25% in this time. “India’s smartphone market entered 2026 under clear cost pressure, largely driven by ongoing memory supply constraints. A sharp rise in DRAM and NAND prices has increased device costs, forcing brands to recalibrate pricing across segments,” says Menka Kumari, Senior Analyst – Industry Intelligence Group (IIG), CyberMedia Research (CMR).
“At the same time, the market is undergoing a structural shift. Consumers are becoming more deliberate in their purchase decisions, prioritising tangible value over frequent upgrades,” she adds. For Samsung, the Galaxy S26 Ultra holds fort for the brand’s premium positioning, while Apple, OnePlus, and Xiaomi have gained from this momentum.
“We are beginning to see the flywheel work again and demand returning. As prices go up across the industry, some customers will wait and watch. But we are also seeing the market start to stabilise as trade and consumers adapt. There is some short-term hesitation in parts of the chain,” Sandeep Singh Arora, chief business officer at Xiaomi India, told HT.
Smartphone brands have been reporting strong sales of their more expensive phones, in their latest earnings calls. Apple has reported its best ever March quarter with revenue of $111.2 billion. “ iPhone achieved a March quarter revenue record, fueled by such extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup,” Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, noted during the call.
Samsung too reported an all-time quarterly high revenue of KRW 133.9 trillion (South Korean Won; that would be around $90 billion), on the back of higher average selling prices and momentum with sales of the latest flagship phones. Samsung’s numbers also include an all-time high for quarterly revenue and operating profit for its memory business, where the company holds a global leadership position.
“Device eXperience (DX) Division posted a QoQ sales increase of 19%, supported by the launch of new flagship smartphones. Despite higher cost pressures, the Division expanded the sales of high-value-added products across businesses to preserve profitability,” the company said, in a statement. The DX Division includes smartphones as well as TVs, home appliances and mobile devices businesses.
For OnePlus, the flagship OnePlus 15 and OnePlus 15R phones contribute 48% of volumes, according to CMR’s numbers, higher than the more affordable Nord 5 and Nord CE5 (they combine for around 39% share). For Apple, the trend of the latest generation and a previous generation phone on sale at lower price points continues to succeed. The CMR report also notes that Apple reached a 9% shipment share in Q1 2026, with the iPhone 16 series contributing 53% of volumes, while the current generation iPhone 17 series recorded 28% share.
This, they say, is “a healthy upgrade cycle that validates the premium segment’s relative insulation from memory-driven pricing stress”.
Global trends are a cue
Smart Analytics Global (SAG), in their latest Smartphone 360 tracking report, suggests that the premiumisation phase in the smartphone market defines a space that’s “ increasingly detached from shipment performance and migrated materially toward higher-priced devices,” says Linda Sui, founder and principal analyst at Smart Analytics Global (SAG).
Their reported numbers suggest Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi lead the way in terms of revenue share for Q1 2026 worldwide. While Apple’s latest generation iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro phones have been successful, Samsung too has delivered generational success with the Galaxy S26 portfolio while Xiaomi’s partnership with German camera giants Leica has delivered not just the Xiaomi 17 Ultra and the 17 flagships, but also a technological flex called the Leica Leitzphone powered by Xiaomi, being sold in some countries.
This also marked the 100 year anniversary for Leica, and underlined a multi-year partnership between the camera giants and the phone maker.
Global smartphone shipments have decreased 2.9% year-over-year to 293.8 million units in 1Q26—and this breaks a 10-quarter growth streak, according to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Consumer Devices, notes that while phone makers are “responding with tighter cost controls, reduced marketing and channel support, and increased use of de-specing strategies — but such measures also limit growth”.
Xiaomi’s strategy has been to reduce shipments of older models in the face of component shortage and higher bill of materials, to avoid large scale price hikes on current phones.
They note that Samsung reclaimed the top position in Q1 2026, primarily due to strong demand for the new Galaxy S26 Ultra, with a 2.95 year-on-year shipment increase worldwide. Apple follows, driven by strong iPhone 17 series sales performance, and something crucial for global market cues for the year—Apple saw significant growth in China, as much as 30%, driving a 4.4% YOY global shipment increase.
There is belief that the premiumisation trend will continue even as the memory prices are expected to stabilise by the second half of 2027.
