Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning to sign a regional non-aggression pact with Iran. Although nothing has been done officially, the suggested reasons are to ensure the security of economic infrastructure and to stabilize West Asia in the wake of a devastating conflict between Iran and a joint US-Israeli attack. Saudi infrastructure has also been damaged by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the latter’s conflict with the US and Israel. The Saudi economy is largely dependent on crude oil exports. It has not fully diversified its economy. The Neom city project and Vision 2030 have not transitioned the Saudi economy away from its traditional dependence on fossil fuel exports.
The dispute between America, Israel and Iran will not end so soon. Like the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is going to be inconclusive. The Iranian war is not limited to Iran only. Spill-over effects affect the region and have global implications. Its consequences spread far and wide. The chokepoint Strait of Hormuz has been weaponized by the IRGC to disrupt supply chains and export-import connectivity. The shipping route is important for energy connectivity and supply corridor. Any disruption in the strait would have cascading effects. Global energy shortages and inflation are sending shock waves across the world. Iran has deliberately targeted critical assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and others, disrupting economic activity in the region. Saudi Arabia is an export economy and cannot counter the IRGC’s missile and drone powers. If the war prolongs, Saudi trade and business interests will be badly affected. This will lead to internal discord.
Riyadh reportedly follows a Cold War-style framework and seeks inspiration from the 1975 Helsinki Accords. Post-war security architecture is expected to be the major reason behind the plan to sign a non-aggression pact with Iran. Stable West Asia is a symbol of uninterrupted trade, export-import and a healthy economy. Like the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia is wary of the consequences of a protracted war between the US, Israel and Iran. This will not benefit the Gulf economy. The IRGC is unpredictable and can go to any lengths to protect its interests. Despite being leaderless, it confronts America and Israel. It has fiercely attacked its rich Gulf neighbours. The non-aggression pact is a strategic geopolitical step to ensure mutual security guarantees. Gulf energy infrastructure is vulnerable to Iranian drone and missile attacks. Regional hostilities have exposed vulnerable economic infrastructure in the Gulf countries. Protecting them through air defense cover is extremely expensive.
Prolonged regional conflicts and dynamic actions will seriously hamper Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification program. Vision 2030 depends on tourism and unfettered foreign investment, for which regional stability and peace are vital. Missile threats will not benefit Vision 2030. Therefore, Riyadh leans towards the non-aggression pact. America’s security umbrella in the Gulf has come under criticism due to Iranian aggression. Traditional Western military guarantees are undergoing serious redefinition due to Donald Trump’s America First policy. Given these developments, Riyadh intends to eliminate its complete dependence on Washington and find ways to directly engage Iran on regional security. Sovereignty and non-interference are Riyadh’s main objectives. But the question is whether this bilateralism will actually work given the complexity of the situation and increasing instability in West Asia.
The Helsinki Model is ambitious, but will it work in a West Asian context? Geopolitics in 1975 is not like it is today. Copying the old model may not work. The Helsinki Accords (1975) encouraged structured negotiations between the US and the then-Soviet Union. This reduced the risk of nuclear war. Riyadh is probably following the Helsinki blueprint. But replicating the Helsinki model is difficult. The non-aggression pact is a good initiative, but it is difficult to translate it into reality.
Competing regional ambitions, structural conflicts, Shia-Sunni sectarian tensions and strategic mistrust fundamentally constrain the possibility of developing the scope of the Saudi non-aggression pact with Iran. The barriers are insurmountable, making it difficult to replicate the Helsinki model. Communal competition and ideological rivalry will prevent dramatic reversals in diplomacy. Saudi Arabia and Iran broke relations in 2016. Religious conflict and ideological differences act as adversaries to the non-aggression pact.
The IRGC has a different game plan for the region. It uses its strong proxy networks through Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis to exercise its leverage and ideological hegemony. The Islamic regime in Iran specializes in gray zone warfare through proxies. He can attack neighbors through them despite non-aggression pact and other formalities. The IRGC has its own independent strategy, and regional hegemony is its core interest. He will not change his policies to accommodate Saudi interests. The history of ideological rivalry between the two countries cannot be forgotten with a stroke of opportunistic diplomacy. The IRGC understands Saudi interests. This would not be in line with the Saudi plan.
Saudi-Iran cooperation through non-aggression pact would irritate Israel. The Riyadh-Tel Aviv rivalry begins. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to completely weaken the Iranian regime at any cost. Saudi-Iran diplomatic closeness could anger Netanyahu. The UAE is hostile towards Iran given the aggression it has demonstrated against the UAE. An integrated regional approach is impossible. Saudi Arabia can develop a new axis with Iran and Türkiye. Would this pivot be possible? Its future is complex and difficult to predict.
The US has military bases in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The IRGC considers them a direct threat to Iran. The non-aggression pact with Iran may require the removal of US bases from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia cannot do this easily. Many Arab Gulf countries do not accept Iranian hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz and increasing regional dominance through its proxy architecture.
The Saudi non-aggression pact would also isolate Saudi Arabia in the region. The rise of the IRGC will significantly impact regional ambitions and competitions. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and nuclear enrichment program raise concerns over regional peace. US and Israel will react strongly to Saudi non-aggression pact. Can Saudi Arabia withstand American and Israeli pressure?
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Türkiye and Egypt are also planning a geopolitical alignment to balance Iran and Israel. They engage in security consultation, defense coordination and foreign policy cooperation. However, a military alliance has not been formally formed between them. This power group is active, but there are internal contradictions among them. It is important to see how far they can go. The only sticking point is the Sunni factor. Will this be compelling enough to unite them for a permanent alliance? This is a Sunni axis. Will Iran trust him and his ideological heterogeneity? Pakistan is unreliable and changes its colors depending on where the money comes from.
A quadrilateral alignment involving Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye has been contemplated. Nothing has been done formally. Can Pakistan turn its back on the US sphere of influence? This is practically impossible. The possibility of an Islamic NATO merges Türkiye’s defense technology, Saudi oil wealth, and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. Will Iran forget competing interests, regional rivalries and sectarian and religious tensions and contradictions and join them to create a formidable Islamic NATO and the unity of 500 million Islamic people?
The West Asian Quad includes the I2U2 group. The I2U2 Group is an important strategic partnership between India, Israel, the UAE and the US. The group promotes regional stability and economic cooperation. It is a combination of Israel’s technology, India’s manufacturing, UAE’s investment capital and America’s innovation. This combination is formidable and has been very effective in the field. This group is an important factor in ensuring regional peace. Saudi Arabia cannot ignore the I2U2 group when signing agreements with the IRGC. Therefore, a Saudi non-aggression pact with Iran is not really within the realm of possibility at this time. There are inevitable obstacles that Saudi Arabia cannot overcome.
(Views expressed are personal)
This article is written by Jajati K Patnaik, Professor and Chairman, Center for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and Chandan Panda, Professor, Central University of Karnataka, Karnataka.
