Last updated:
History shows that a bad June does not translate into a drought. But it also shows that when losses persist into July and August, it is difficult to reverse the results.
The 1987 monsoon failed over much of the country, leaving seasonal rainfall about 19 percent below normal. (AI generated image)
After hitting most parts of the country in early June, the south-west monsoon has unexpectedly stopped. Rainfall has weakened across large parts of central, western and peninsular India, delaying sowing, raising concerns over water availability and reliving memories of some of India’s worst monsoon years.
By June 18, after the monsoon stalled due to an unusual combination of adverse weather systems, India was severely deficient in rainfall by about 40 per cent, which included the absence of a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, weak moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, subdued Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), weak cross-equatorial winds and the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific.
The immediate question is whether this is just a temporary pause or the beginning of another tough monsoon season. History shows that a bad June does not automatically translate into a drought. But it also shows that when deficits persist into July and August, it becomes very difficult to reverse the consequences for agriculture, inflation and economic growth.
About three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the June–September south-west monsoon. June is particularly important as it marks the beginning of kharif sowing for crops such as rice, soybean, cotton, pulses and maize. A weak June may delay sowing and reduce soil moisture. However, meteorologists say that July and August together contribute the bulk of seasonal rainfall. Heavy rains during these months have often helped offset the initial shortage.
That is why meteorologists caution against declaring drought only on the basis of June rains. More importantly, whether the monsoon activates fast enough to sustain agriculture during the peak agricultural period.
Benchmark: What counts as monsoon deficiency?
The India Meteorological Department classifies the June–September monsoon as:
- Normal: 96-104 percent of long period average (LPA)
- Below normal: 90-96 percent of LPA
- Shortfall: Less than 90 percent of LPA
Although these classifications apply to the entire season, rainfall distribution is equally important. A season may end up close to normal nationally while many states experience severe shortages, disproportionately affecting crops and water supplies.
1918: The worst drought in more than a century
The monsoon of 1918 is one of the most destructive in the recorded history of India. Climate studies estimate that about 40 percent of the country experienced extreme or exceptional drought conditions – unmatched by any other monsoon season in the last 120 years. During the last years of British rule, failed rains led to massive crop losses, severe food and fodder shortages and famine that affected large parts of the country.
1972: The benchmark against which modern droughts are measured
The 1972 drought has long served as a reference point for severe monsoon failure in India. Seasonal rainfall remained below the long period average (LPA) by about 24 per cent, making it one of the driest monsoons in independent India. The drought affected large parts of western and central India, especially Maharashtra, and caused massive agricultural losses. Decades later, when the country faced another major drought in 2009, policymakers repeatedly compared it to the 1972 crisis.
1987: A nationwide agricultural crisis
The 1987 monsoon failed over much of the country, leaving seasonal rainfall about 19 percent below normal. About 60 percent of India’s cropped area was affected, while more than 85 million people faced severe drought conditions. Researchers have described it as one of the worst droughts of the twentieth century due to its scale, widespread crop damage, and the large population affected.
2002: India’s worst monsoon in almost two decades
India ended the 2002 southwest monsoon season with rainfall about 19 percent below normal, making it one of the weakest monsoons since 1987. The most damaging feature of that year was not just the seasonal shortage, but the decline in rainfall during July – the most important month for crop growth. Reservoirs failed to recharge adequately, kharif production declined sharply and agricultural GDP declined, driving down overall economic growth.
Severe drought conditions occurred across large parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and other central Indian states.
2009: Another nationwide drought
Seven years later, India witnessed another major monsoon failure. Seasonal rainfall was about 22 percent below normal, making 2009 one of the driest monsoons in decades. Rice, sugarcane and pulses were among the most affected crops. Food inflation increased in the following months as agricultural production declined and water shortages increased in many states. Unlike isolated regional droughts, 2009 affected large parts of the country simultaneously, placing severe pressure on food supplies and rural incomes.
2015: A weak season that started with a strong June
The 2015 monsoon provides an important lesson for interpreting current conditions. Although the season ultimately ended with about 14 percent less rainfall than normal, June itself was unusually wet, with rainfall above the long-term average. Deficits emerged later, primarily during July, August, and September, when El Niño strengthened in the Pacific.
Despite a below-normal season, India managed to limit agricultural damage compared to 2002 and 2009 as irrigation coverage expanded and water management improved in many states.
How does 2026 compare?
The current season bears striking similarities to previous difficult monsoon years, particularly because rainfall has stalled unusually early despite rapid initial progress.
Many areas, especially Maharashtra, central India and parts of southern India, are already reporting massive rainfall deficit. Mumbai has recorded its driest start to June in more than a decade, forcing authorities to impose water restrictions ahead of the full arrival of monsoon.
However, meteorologists stress that it is still too early to directly compare 2026 to drought years such as 2002 or 2009.
Much depends on whether a fresh low pressure system develops over the Bay of Bengal in the second half of June and early July. Historically, these systems have often revived stalled monsoons and substantially reduced early season rainfall deficit.
The bigger concern: timing, not just total rainfall
For farmers, the timing of rainfall can be as important as seasonal totals. Even if the country eventually records near-normal rainfall, prolonged drought during sowing may lead to repeated planting, increasing seed costs and reducing yields.
Economists are also keeping a close eye on the situation as weak monsoon rainfall impacts food production, reservoir levels, rural incomes and ultimately inflation.
The good news is that India’s agriculture is more resilient today than it was during earlier droughts. Irrigation coverage has expanded significantly over the past decade, and reservoir storage this monsoon season was better than in many previous dry years. Even if rainfall is below normal, these factors can reduce the impact.
what happens next?
The next two to three weeks are likely to determine whether 2026 will join India’s list of major drought years or become another example of a delayed monsoon that eventually recovered. A strong revival during late June and July could still erase a large part of the existing losses. But if the monsoon remains sluggish through July, the risks to agriculture, food prices and water security will increase sharply.
About the author
Pragati is news editor at news18.com. After heading the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now conceptualises, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She makes sure…read more
read more
