DUBAI—For the Iranian regime, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz has become more important than the tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief it received from the Trump administration.
This is because Tehran is playing a long game. Iranian officials believe the country has finally emerged as a regional hegemon after the US and Israel failed to achieve their main goals in the war that began in February. And, until Tehran consolidates this new position by achieving a permanent arrangement control vital waterways-and will simultaneously dominate the economies of the Persian Gulf – then the rest of the countries will eventually follow, including relief from US sanctions.
“This is the only way: recognize the new Iranian order in the Strait of Hormuz,” warned Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the parliament and chief negotiator with the US, said, “The Strait of Hormuz will open only with the ‘Iranian arrangement’, not with American threats.”
This attitude points to a difficult future regular incidents of violenceThe sword of Damocles hangs over global energy markets due to continued uncertainty and renewed attacks on the Gulf monarchies.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “The Islamic Republic will become even more of a gangster regime. The takeaway from the war is that concessions are won through coercion – by attacking its neighbors, threatening the Strait of Hormuz, and driving up the price of oil.” “Like Putin’s Russia, the Islamic Republic believes that its security depends not on the prosperity of its people, but on the insecurity of its neighbors.”
And, like its neighbor Russia, the Iranian regime views the oil-rich Gulf monarchies as belonging to its natural sphere of influence – an area it has been deprived of due to US intervention since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Now that the US has failed to protect these Gulf states from Iranian attacks, Tehran’s campaign to institutionalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz reflects its ambition to establish a new Pax Iranica in the Middle East. After all, the Gulf countries, to varying degrees, depend on the strait not only for their oil and gas exports, but also for other vital supplies ranging from consumer goods to food.
A glimpse of the changing relationship can also be seen in Tehran during this period. recent funeral Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s meeting was attended by officials from three of the six Gulf states that were attacked by Iranian missiles and drones last spring: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman.
The Saudi delegation was asked to listen to what many in the region considered a deliberately insulting verse of the Quran, which talked about a battle between unbelievers and the divinely-backed side, with the implication being that the Saudis belonged to the former camp. The remaining Gulf states that stayed away from Khamenei’s funeral, including the United Arab Emirates, nevertheless remain in direct contact with Tehran.
Raz Zimt, director of the Iran and Shia Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said, “They have come to the conclusion that they are faced with the tyranny of geography – the Islamic Republic is still there, President Trump will not be president of the United States forever, and they have to live side by side with the Iranians.” “They have to face reality.”
Latest round of violence in the region leaves Washington in ruinsWithdraw Treasury Department exemptionIssued last month, it allowed the sale of Iranian oil on international markets. That waiver had thrown a vital lifeline to the sanctions-stricken Iranian economy pending talks over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the root cause of the war.
The current series of attacks by the US and Iran was triggered by Iranian attacks on ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz through Omani territorial waters, bypassing toll booths on the Iranian side of the waterway.
Tehran argued that it was justified in its actions because the memorandum of understanding signed with the Trump administration last month specifies that maritime traffic through the strait, while not requiring fees, will flow through “Iranian arrangements.” US officials disagree with this interpretation and have described Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in Omani waters as acts of terrorism. Omani and Iranian foreign ministers met on Saturday to discuss how to manage the strait.
The disagreement lies in the inconclusive nature of the full-scale phase of the conflict, which lasted 40 days between February and April. “Both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran think they’ve won this war,” said Holly Dagress, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The reason the Iranians are playing hardball right now is because they’re trying to put pressure on President Trump, understanding that the war is unpopular in the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz strangles the world economy. They’re taking subversive steps because they’re operating from the perspective that they’ve got the upper hand.”
Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman al-Ansari said Iran’s perception of itself as a new regional hegemon is delusional, given how weakened its military has been, how weakened its network of proxy forces in the Middle East has become and how much its economy has languished in recent months. “What’s left is the ability to bully, steal, make noise and act as a spoiler,” he said. “These are not the qualities of a lord, but of a swindler.”
This may be true, but the US has not yet demonstrated the ability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force. For now, the latest round of military activity by both sides is not enough to restart a full-scale war. The US has not targeted Tehran, and the Iranians have limited themselves to largely ineffective attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. They have not resumed attacks on the two most powerful Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
This does not mean that violence will necessarily remain contained in the coming weeks. Mark Polymeropoulos, a former senior Central Intelligence Agency official dealing with the Middle East, said, “Fundamentally, the Iranians don’t believe Trump wants to go back to war, so they’re just going to keep pushing. They’re really thinking he’s not going to stop them at all.” “But there’s a lot that could go wrong. If one of these exchanges led to a mass-casualty incident in which American soldiers were killed, Trump would be crazy. So it’s not risk-free.”
Adding to the complexity, it is also unclear who actually takes charge of governance in Tehran at a time when the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not even appeared on video, let alone in person, since he is believed to have been injured in the attacks that killed his father in February.
Several hardline factions competing for power in Tehran have bitterly criticized the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States last month, and have a clear interest in escalating tensions that would affect it.
“The decision-making process in Iran is now in chaos,” said Mehran Hagharian, executive director of research at the Bourse and Markets Foundation think tank. “There is clearly a faction that does not support negotiations. Many of them want it to last as long as possible, because every day that passes is strengthening the regime and limiting the room for any political reform after the war.” The historical parallel here, he said, is the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 that allowed the Islamic Republic to eliminate its rivals and consolidate religious rule.
Despite widespread disappointment with Trump’s policies, deeper cooperation between Gulf countries and Washington remains important, said Hamad Althunayyan, a political science professor at Kuwait University. “America’s credibility and credibility as a security partner has taken a hit, but it still remains the most important security partner for the Gulf. As we have seen, sometimes security partnerships are difficult, but it is better to be in one than to be without one.”
At the same time, he said, Gulf countries must respond to Iran’s bid for regional dominance by working better with each other and building up their own military deterrence. “How the Gulf decides to confront this threat will determine the future geopolitics of the region,” he said.
Write to Yaroslav Trofimov yaroslov.trofimov@wsj.com
