Can milk production be climate-proof?

India’s official meteorological department (IMD) expects rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season to be around 90% of the long period average. However, importantly, it has estimated a 60% chance of a weak monsoon.

Heat stress has already become an annual pressure on India’s dairy productivity, and increasing heat is impacting cattle health and milk yields. But where the monsoon would normally bring much-needed relief, El Nino conditions mean that any relief this year may be delayed, limited and short-lived.

The heatwave, which has already sent temperatures reaching extreme levels across large parts of the country, is expected to continue. Some areas may also face drought conditions.

The impact of such extreme weather on India’s broader agricultural ecosystem is well documented. Yet despite the important role of dairy in the country’s food system, its impacts on milk production often receive less attention.

India is currently the world’s largest milk producer. Yet despite this remarkable achievement, milk production per animal in the country remains among the lowest globally.

Cows in India produce an average of 4.87 kg of milk per day, which is almost two-thirds of the global average of 7.18 kg per day.

High temperatures, which place significant physical stress on cattle, have a direct impact on milk production. For example, drought conditions can reduce milk yield by more than 25%. Therefore, heat stress, unless effectively mitigated, is likely to worsen an already challenging productivity scenario.

While India-specific estimates are limited, global evidence of El Niño-induced drought in small-owner dairy systems suggests that milk production could decline by 25–30%, along with contraction in livestock holdings. Given the structural similarities of India’s largely smallholder-driven dairy sector, these findings are highly relevant in understanding the potential scale and nature of impact.

However, the impact of such climate shocks in India is not only biological but also behavioral. As pressure on feed, fodder and water increases, farmers prioritize productive animals, delay herd expansion and become more cautious in their investment decisions – increasing the overall impact on milk production and regional development.

Beyond immediate yield loss, El Nino has impacts at many levels. At the animal level, heat stress reduces milk production, impairs reproductive cycles and undermines overall health. Low availability of fodder, fodder and water at the farm level hampers productivity. On a macro level, these stressors affect herd size decisions and investment behavior across the region. As the climate crisis worsens, with El Niño events expected to become more frequent and intense, preparing farmers to adapt is no longer optional. This is necessary. Fortunately, solutions can be found in science. And it all starts with feeding.

Nutrition and hydration are fundamental to animal productivity.

As heat stress increases, food intake decreases, resulting in reduced body weight and physical condition. Feed consumption in lactating cows begins to decrease when the air temperature is around 25–26 °C and drops rapidly above 30 °C. At temperatures of 40°C, feed intake may decline by up to 40%.

Compounding this is an important but often overlooked constraint – water.

For every liter of milk produced, a cow requires about 4-5 liters of water. In many rural areas, as water sources become more remote and availability declines, farmers are forced to make difficult choices: maintain herd size, reduce feeding, or compromise on milk production.

When this basic need is not met, the impact is cascading – not only milk yields, but also animal health, fertility and ultimately farmers’ incomes are affected.

This reduction in feed consumption and the resulting loss in body condition does not just affect milk yield. They also weaken immunity, making animals more susceptible to many illnesses and diseases that can further compromise productivity.

Scientifically designed mixed diets can help bridge these nutritional deficiencies.

Such fodder are specifically designed keeping in mind the heat-induced decline in appetite experienced by cattle during periods of elevated temperatures. They are rich in nutrients, ensuring that animals get the required nutrition despite eating small amounts of fodder.

These diets are also formulated to generate less metabolic heat during digestion, helping to prevent further increases in core body temperature in already heat-stressed animals.

Another important shift is from quantity to efficiency. In climate-stressed conditions, the question is no longer how much animals are fed, but how effectively that feed is converted into milk.

Balanced feed formulations can compensate for poor quality forage, while nutritional stabilizers can help maintain nutrient intake even when grazing conditions are poor.

It also plays an important role in maintaining reproductive performance, which often suffers due to heat stress and lack of nutrition.

Getting the right nutrition matters as it benefits far more than just higher milk yields. Better nutrition also strengthens the immune system, improves animal health and increases overall productivity.

Of course, nutritional intervention alone is not sufficient. Their impact should be complemented by broader farm management practices.

Heat stress not only affects yield but also disrupts the breeding cycle, often increasing breeding intervals and reducing overall herd productivity.

To address this, farmers must first reduce heat exposure through improved housing – shaded areas, well-ventilated sheds or tree cover can significantly reduce thermal stress.

It is equally important to ensure access to adequate water and provide balanced nutrition supported by essential electrolytes, which helps animals cope better with heat stress.

A farmer may have genetically superior cattle, but those animals will never achieve their full production potential without proper care and management. This is where farm management practices can make a substantial difference.

Poor sanitation, inadequate housing, limited access to veterinary services, and inadequate training in animal care can all undermine productivity.

The consequences can range from delayed calving and poor reproductive performance to mastitis, metabolic disorders and other health challenges that directly affect milk yield.

Strengthening basic farming practices – from vaccination programs and clean milking to better housing and clean storage – is essential to maintaining productivity and reducing losses. Adoption of infrastructure like chilling tanks and proper milk storage system can further increase the quality and reduce wastage.

Knowledge transfer will be important. Digital extension services and demonstration farms can play an important role in helping farmers learn and adopt best practices through hands-on experience and hands-on guidance.

El Niño conditions often result in sporadic and irregular rainfall, creating favorable conditions for the spread of infections and diseases among livestock populations. Strong veterinary support systems, combined with the immunity-boosting benefits of proper nutrition, can help prevent outbreaks and minimize damage.

Additionally, breeding and genetic improvement programs can help develop more heat-tolerant and productive animals, while emerging technologies can provide farmers with real-time information about herd health and performance.

Both industry and government have an important role to play in accelerating the adoption of these measures.

The industry can raise awareness through demonstrations that showcase both products and best practices, helping farmers understand the real benefits of modern approaches to dairy management.

In the meantime, the government can continue to support adoption through targeted policies, improved access to credit, and fiscal incentives that reduce barriers to investment.

To its credit, the policy is already playing an enabling role. Initiatives such as the Rashtriya Gokul Mission, which supports breed improvement and conservation, and the Pashu Aushadhi Initiative, which seeks to improve access to affordable and quality veterinary medicines, represent important steps in the right direction.

Building resilience has become imperative.

Dairy has established itself as an essential component of the Indian diet and an important source of income for millions of rural families. As climate change intensifies, protecting and improving productivity will become more important.

Therefore, solving the productivity puzzle is more important than increasing milk yield.

It is about building a system that can withstand climate shocks while sustaining growth, protecting farmers’ livelihoods and ensuring national food security.

In an era of increasing climate uncertainty, making milk production more resilient is not only desirable, but necessary.

(Views expressed are personal)

This article is written by Dr. AY Rajendra, CEO, Animal Nutrition Business, Godrej Agrovet Limited.