The Maharashtra victory confirms the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Indian politics and its ability to leverage power to win elections. Within the BJP, this strengthens Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s control over the party. Within the larger Sangh Parivar, this ensures a continued reassessment of the relationship between the party and its ideological guru and fraternal organisations, which was set in motion after the Lok Sabha decision on more collaborative terms. Within the political economy of India, this allows the BJP to continue to exert tremendous influence over corporate India. And the results show the opposition that relying on Lok Sabha achievements will not get them very far.
The results from Maharashtra and Jharkhand also establish the centrality of welfare schemes generally – particularly cash transfers to women – as a formula for winning elections, which has serious political economic consequences. The results, when combined with the BJP’s success in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections, show that Hindutva can work, or fail, depending on the local context, but it remains a central message for BJP politics. Will remain. The results show the continued prominence of caste, subcaste and tribal identities in shaping voter preferences, but also how they operate in their locally specific settings.
Let us examine each of these implications of Saturday’s decision separately in three broad baskets – on the politics of the BJP, on the national opposition, and on the broader direction of Indian politics, in terms of both the identity and development axes.
A renewed BJP
Despite the setback in Jharkhand – and make no mistake, the party is disappointed by what happened in Ranchi – the BJP is pleased. And he is pleased because the Maharashtra results, followed by Haryana’s success last month, are setting the party up to demolish the narrative that was generated by the Lok Sabha decision. That narrative was about how 2024 marked the beginning of the end of BJP’s dominance; The state election results have led the BJP to suggest, not without reason, that the party’s deep social roots, organizational strength and ability to act on feedback mean that 2024 will be part of a post-2014 continuity. remains, a phase marked by party dominance. ,
Look at last year’s elections. BJP does not just have power at the Centre; The national map is turning saffron again. The party won all three states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh) late last year; It became part of the ruling coalition in Andhra, won Odisha for the first time and retained Arunachal in the state elections held along with the parliamentary elections; She returned to power in Haryana for the third time under extremely adverse circumstances; And it has recently achieved record victories in Maharashtra, proving beyond any doubt that it is the leading party in the state, an achievement if you go back to the history of Maharashtra where the BJP has been in power for most of its existence. Was Shiva’s junior partner for. Army. The BJP remains the principal opposition in Delhi, where elections are due next, and is part of the ruling coalition in Bihar, where elections are due in late 2025.
Within the party, this success means that Modi’s leadership, and through the authority he derives from Modi as well as his own electoral track record, Shah’s control remains largely unchallenged. If there were voices that could be heard warning against this deregulation in the wake of the Lok Sabha decision, expect them to become quieter going forward. This will also allow Modi and Shah to appoint anyone of their choice as the next party president; Not replacing JP Nadda immediately after the Lok Sabha decision was a gamble, as failures in Haryana and Maharashtra would have seen other power centers press for a candidate who could be seen as more autonomous than the top two. Was. But this renewed political legitimacy allows Modi and Shah to run the party as they wish.
Also, the Maharashtra result shows that relations between the RSS leadership, RSS allies and the BJP will continue to improve after the Lok Sabha. There is now enough evidence to suggest that parts of the Sangh machine were demoralized, and excluded, over the summer, and statements highlighting the BJP’s arrogance and unilateralism did not help. But differences also increased because ideologically, the Sangh has never seen its vision fulfilled to this extent and organisationally, there has never been such a large influx of people belonging to different allies into the government and the ruling party. What was missing was a greater spirit of collaboration, greater engagement, greater receptivity to feedback at the top and greater coordination at the ground level. In its centenary year, the RSS leadership knows that having a strong Modi and a friendly government in its home state is ideal. The resolution of differences and better cooperation will continue.
And finally, for the party, having a government in Mumbai means greater control over corporate India. Following the Lok Sabha decision, businesses had begun to play coy, unsure of the stability of the current government and bracing themselves for a possible re-emergence of the Congress. The recent US allegations against the Adani Group coincide with Rahul Gandhi’s attempt to position the rest of corporate India as a victim of the government’s alleged crony capitalism. But Maharashtra’s decision says two things. Within the broader opposition, this will raise doubts about the power of this narrative that focuses on politics-business relations and its appeal among the broader electorate, especially since all parties appear compromised; And the sentiment in the broader corporate world will continue to be that Modi is here to stay. Both help BJP.
And that is why, in terms of political narrative, electoral map, control over the party, coordination within the larger ideological family and influence over sources of finance, Maharashtra victory is very good news for the BJP.
A huge blow to the opposition
A ray of hope for the anti-BJP forces came from Ranchi on Saturday.
The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance returned to power in a context where the BJP had used its most senior leaders and tremendous resources to regain power, after the BJP had arrested top leaders of the ruling party and the Chief Minister of the state. and where the BJP had deployed its most senior leaders and tremendous resources to gain power. The BJP was engaged in a communal campaign targeting other Muslims in the name of fighting illegal immigrants. Given the social realities of the state and the presence of a substantial tribal population, the economic realities of the state and the possibility of rent-seeking through natural resource extraction contracts, and the political realities where a loss would have left the opposition in power. Across eastern India including Bengal (Bihar, Odisha and Assam are already in the NDA tent), this victory is a huge source of relief for JMM, Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal, who will hope that the decision will benefit them. Impact in Bihar next year.
But this cannot overcome the bigger shock that Maharashtra presents in three ways.
Congress’s ability to compete with BJP has once again come under serious doubt. This will make it difficult for Rahul Gandhi to unite the parliamentary opposition behind him and all other parties behind the issues he feels are central to taking on the BJP; This will deprive the Congress of electoral opportunities where it is a strong dominant party until the Assam elections in mid-2026; This will destroy the possibilities of raising funds; This makes it extremely difficult for the party to make a comeback in Maharashtra, a state it had long dominated and where it ruled for 15 years until 2014; And this once again raises questions about the continuity of the Congress, its organizational cohesion and the appeal of its ideological platform.
The second implication is the dimming of Sharad Pawar’s political star. The decline of his faction of the party may have been a Maharashtra-specific trend, but Pawar’s stature extended beyond his party and he remained a man who commanded respect across the opposition. The electoral setback does not mean that others will not listen to him, but it does mean that Pawar’s ability to unite the opposition against the BJP has now effectively ended.
And finally, the biggest blow to the opposition is that the trick that had enabled it to surge and gain ground during the Lok Sabha elections is perhaps now working its way out on both the development and identity axes.
Interrelationship between Hindutva, caste and cash
There is no single strategy that works in elections. And the varying impact of Hindutva politics, which is essentially code for consolidating the Hindu vote by showing the threat of Muslims, in different geographical settings is an example of this.
In Maharashtra, “Ek hain to surakshit hain” – “If we are united we are safe”, a slogan which, in polite company, can be understood as a call for unity of all, but in grassroots politics it has been interpreted as A warning to Hindus that allowing caste division would create existential challenges for Muslims appears to be working to some extent. Modi even doubled it in his victory speech. In UP, Yogi Adityanath’s “Batenge to Katenge” call was to polarize the society. Also, the relentless effort to pit tribals against Muslims in Jharkhand failed spectacularly and the BJP was wiped out in the tribal belt. Hindutva will remain the BJP’s preferred political platform, but it may work in some cases, and it may not work in others electorally. On the other hand, “secular parties” will continue to rely solely on Muslim integration, even as they seek to split Hindu votes by appealing to specific caste or regional identities. This formula also works in some cases and not in some cases.
When and how religious integration works depends on another variable that was once again in play on Saturday – the strength of caste identity. If the Lok Sabha results reflect the national opposition’s success in sowing the seeds of doubt among backward communities, Dalits and tribals about the BJP’s commitment to reservations, then Maharashtra’s decision to form a broad multi-caste alliance may at least partly reflect It is the result of BJP’s capability. , a difficult balancing act given the contradictions between the two over their claims for reservation, based on assurance of representation and political voice to the OBC subgroups and the Marathas. The victory of the JMM-led alliance in Jharkhand is a reflection of the smart and broad caste and social coalition that non-BJP forces were able to build, including tribals, Dalits and backward classes.
But if there is one lesson that all parties will learn from the results, it will not be the power of party organizations or even identity politics. This is the power of distributional plans. India’s welfare model has now changed decisively at two levels. One, the trend of direct cash transfers has now become stronger. Second, cash transfers to women are seen as a winner. It is difficult to imagine that the political shock of the Lok Sabha results would have been reversed if the NDA had not launched the cash transfer scheme in Maharashtra or if the JMM had not won without its version of the cash transfer scheme.
The good news is that the Indian political system can see the crisis, it can see the gendered nature of the crisis, and it has the political imagination and electoral imperative to offer help. The bad news is that the scale of the crisis remains deep, structural solutions to address the crisis are absent or limited, and payments to specific demographic groups, at the expense of fiscal discipline, are becoming the preferred path for politicians. Indian democracy won again on Saturday, but whether it came close to providing deep answers to India’s real governance challenges is uncertain.
