By Vikram Subburaj
The pause in the US-Iran conflict on April 8 has triggered a coordinated repricing across global markets. The sequence is visible in the data. Brent crude fell to $91.7-$94.4 per barrel, thereby marking a one-day decline of about 14-16%. The US dollar index declined by about 1.0-1.1% to around 98.8. This was its lowest level in four weeks. US equities moved in tandem as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose about 2.4% 2.9%, respectively.
Bitcoin follows macro
Bitcoin has followed this macro adjustment rather than leading it. Prices moved to roughly $71,575-$71,927 on the day. This was a gain of about 4.5-4.8%. The alignment seems to be very direct. Oil has eased, the dollar has weakened, and risk assets have repriced higher.
Start of repricing
The transmission in this cycle begins with oil. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for close to 20% of global oil flows. The move in Brent to the $91-$94 range reflects a sharp reduction in disruption risk. This is the starting point of the current repricing across markets.
That shift has fed into inflation expectations and, in turn, into rates pricing. Market-implied probabilities now show the likelihood of holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% through December 2026 declining to about 53.6% from 77.4%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut has increasedto about 35.2% from 16.7%. The probability of a 50 basis point or larger cut has risen to about 10.4% from 1.1%.
Tight dependence
The dependence remains tight. These rate expectations are anchored to oil remaining within the $90-$95 band. A move in Brent back above $100 would rebuild the inflation impulse and quickly reprice these probabilities.The currency market reflects the same adjustment. The dollar index at around 98.8, following a roughly 1% one-day fall, points to a partial easing in global liquidity conditions. Bitcoin’s move into the $71,500- $71,900 range, alongside the rise in US equities, indicates that crypto is currently responding to this liquidity shift rather than to crypto-specific demand.
Institutional flows do not yet confirm the price move. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $471.4 million on April 6. On April 7, flows reversed to net outflows of about $159.1 million. The shift from +$471.4 million to −$159.1 million within one session shows that positioning has not stabilised.
Market’s clear thresholds
Taken together, the market is operating within clearly defined thresholds. Oil is in the $91-$94 range. The dollar index is around 98.8. ETF flows have ranged between +$471.4 million and −$159.1 million across two sessions. Bitcoin is trading in the $71,500-$71,900 band. The constraint is continuity. A single day of strong inflows followed by immediate outflows indicates that institutional participation is still adjusting to macro signals rather than reinforcing price levels.
What follows now depends on whether this adjustment evolves into sustained positioning. Oil, the dollar, and ETF flows must align, and definitely not move in isolation. Brent holding below $95 would keep inflationary pressures in check. A dollar index below 100 would support liquidity conditions. Most importantly, ETF flows need to remain consistently positive across sessions. Until that alignment is visible, the current move reflects a macro-driven repricing within a range, rather than a confirmed directional shift.
Vikram Subburaj is CEO of Giottus.com, a technology entrepreneur and crypto advocate focused on democratizing access to digital assets. An alumnus of BITS Pilani and IIM Calcutta, he combines entrepreneurial agility with strategic growth, leading product strategy, customer experience, and market expansion at Giottus.
