The foreign ministers of Egypt, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan gathered in Riyadh on Thursday morning for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic path forward. war in iran.
But according to Arab officials involved in the discussions, there was a major problem: finding a counterpart in Iran for the talks. Earlier that week, Israel killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, who was considered a viable partner who could engage with the West.
Some officials said Egyptian intelligence officers managed to open a channel with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – the paramilitary group that protects the Iranian regime and is the country’s most powerful security and political entity – and proposed a halt to hostilities for five days to build confidence for a ceasefire.
Those discussions set the stage for an unexpected reversal more than 7,000 miles away in Florida.
On Saturday night, President Trump, who spent the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago club, Gave ultimatum to Iran To reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or US forces will “destroy” the country’s power plants. Two days later, as news of the discussions in Riyadh reached the White House, Trump reversed course, pursued diplomacy with Tehran and halted the threatened attack.
Trump’s shift on Monday morning followed a series of closed-door discussions through Middle Eastern mediators, with US officials saying they were hopeful an agreement was possible to resolve the conflict. It also reflects a growing desire by Trump and some of his advisers to end the war, according to people familiar with the matter, as the president faces political and economic fallout from the conflict.
White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt said, “These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the United States will not negotiate through the press.” “This is a fluid situation, and speculation about meetings should not be considered final until they are formally announced by the White House.”
Trump’s announcement that he would postpone attacks on Iranian power plants for five days caused a stir stock market boomThe President got some relief after weeks of pain on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day gains since early February. International benchmark Brent crude ended the session 11% lower at just below $100 a barrel, its lowest level since March 11.
But Arab mediators privately expressed skepticism that the US and Iran could reach an agreement soon, noting that the two sides remain far apart. Trump’s claims that the talks were productive were contradicted by Iranian officials, who denied that discussions were taking place.
As a condition of any agreement to end the war, Iran is demanding that the US and Israel pledge not to carry out future attacks. Tehran is insisting on compensation for the losses suffered during the war. The US still wants the same things it demanded of Iran before the war began: dismantling Tehran’s nuclear work, suspending its ballistic missile program and ending its support for proxy militias.
a possible meeting
The uptick in diplomacy in recent days has prompted discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials about an in-person meeting in Pakistan or Turkey later this week, according to U.S. and Arab government aides as well as others familiar with the matter. Officials said the meeting has not been completed yet.
Trump appears ready to pursue a deal, telling reporters on Monday that some Iranian leaders could usher in a better era of US-Iran relations. “We’re working with some people who seem to me very reasonable, very solid,” he said. “Maybe one of them will be exactly what we’re looking for. Look at Venezuela, how well it’s doing.”
Trump first learned about the possibility of discussions with Iran on Saturday and was receptive, according to a senior administration official.
For now, Tehran is distancing itself from the talks. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the country’s top officials, suggested on Monday that Tehran is not yet ready for talks with Washington.
“The Iranian people demand full and remorseful punishment for the attackers,” he wrote in English, hours after Trump’s initial comments. He stressed that there have been no negotiations with the US, saying that such optimism is used to “manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are stuck.”
During back-channel discussions last week, Arab leaders were particularly focused on openness strait of hormuzThe narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil exports typically flow.
He called for the strait to be overseen by a neutral committee that would allow safe access for all ships, officials familiar with the discussions said. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp responded that Iran should charge transit ships a fee, as Egypt now does with the Suez Canal, officials said.
Gulf officials objected to the idea of tariffs, with Saudi Arabia saying the kingdom would not allow Iran the upper hand in operations in the strait, some officials said. They feared that such an agreement would strengthen Iranian influence over Gulf energy exports in the years to come.
European and Arab officials said messages continued to be exchanged, with Qatar, Oman, France and the UK working on their back channels. Officials said the proposals also included Pakistan hosting a meeting between senior leaders of the US and Iran. He also said that America immediately agreed to the idea.
A US official said the US could be represented by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, although there is also a possibility that Vice President JD Vance could also come if a deal is reached.
can send to tehran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi As for the possible meeting, however, Iranian officials have indicated that they were not eager to repeat previous failed talks between Araghchi and Witkoff. It is unclear whether Ghalibaf would be willing to leave the country and engage in talks at this point – especially if Vance did not attend.
An agreement to end hostilities would focus on what the US has accomplished beyond inflicting significant damage on Iran’s military capabilities. Analysts say the regime is battered but intact, still controls the Strait of Hormuz and can access its nuclear material buried under debris. The US is still sending two Marine expeditionary units to the region, each with about 2,200-2,500 Marines aboard three warships.
Vance spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, officials said, although Netanyahu only publicly confirmed the call with Trump. An administration official said that Trump spoke to Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir on Monday.
‘Maybe I’
Washington will now officially negotiate with the more hardline Iranian regime under new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – whose father, wife and sister were killed in the air strikes – while strong disagreements remain over the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Asked on Monday who would control the strait after the war, Trump told reporters: “Probably me—me and the ayatollah,” adding, “Whoever the next ayatollah is.”
Trump said the US was in contact with a top Iranian official, whom he said was respected in Tehran, but he declined to name the person for fear of putting the official at risk.
Nicole Grajewski, a non-resident scholar in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf is one of the few remaining senior officials who can convince Iran’s political leadership and hardliners to accept a deal.
Ghalibaf, 64, is a hardline former IRGC commander, but at times he has established himself as a pragmatist, including during his service as mayor of Tehran.
“Ghalibaf has great legitimacy in the eyes of the security establishment,” Grajewski said.
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