The Brazilian COP30 and Azerbaijan COP29 Presidencies have released the much-awaited report on the ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3T’, which documents how to distribute USD 1.3 trillion annually to developing countries from all international sources by 2035.
This is a major issue for India as it led intense protests against the weak finance deal at COP29 in Baku last year.
The COP29 deal set a climate finance target of “at least $300 billion per year by 2035” and launched the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T”. However, India has identified specific problems that could fundamentally alter climate finance obligations. It also said that the amount proposed for NCQG is too small and will be distributed too late.
Now, the Baku to Belém Roadmap for 1.3T identifies five action fronts on finance – Replenishing, Rebalancing, Rechanneling, Revamping and Reshaping (5R) to deliver 1.3T by 2035, with US$300 billion being part of the overall target.
During a press conference on Wednesday, COP30 President Ambassador André Corra do Lago and COP29 President, Mukhtar Babayev, confirmed that the report and its pathways to achieving the US$1.3 trillion roadmap will not be negotiated. He said the Presidency was asked to prepare a roadmap and so they have worked on it but there is no provision for reception or dialogue on the roadmap. Experts say that this may weaken the implementation of the roadmap.
Furthermore, the plan focuses on process, not immediate funding – developed countries will publish forward-looking finance plans by the end of 2026 and the UN Standing Committee on Finance will complete those plans only in 2027. For the $300 billion target, the paper does not specify how much public funding should be or what share should be grants or highly concessional funds, particularly for adaptation and loss-and-damage.
Under ‘replenishment’, developed countries are to achieve a manifold increase in the distribution of grants and concessional climate finance, including through bilateral and multilateral channels. Most importantly, multilateral climate funds must be supported by strong replenishment to meet the US$300 billion target committed to “at least tripling annual outflows from 2022 levels by 2030.”
The report said that under ‘rebalancing’, creditor countries, the International Monetary Fund and multilateral development banks will work together to reduce the onerous debt burden faced by developing countries, including through climate-resilient loan segments, loans for nature/climate change, other state-contingent or pre-arranged facilities, which will help reduce debt vulnerabilities.
Under ‘Rechannelling’ – multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, public development banks and multilateral climate funds to significantly increase the availability and quality of risk-bearing capital, including catalytic financial and risk mitigation instruments such as guarantees, foreign exchange hedging, insurance products, securitization platforms and early-stage equities.
To ‘reinvigorate’ the financial architecture, the report recommends that governments should integrate climate, nature and equity objectives into planning, budget and investment frameworks, respecting national needs and priorities and aiming for a whole-of-government, whole-of-the-economy approach. Finally, the report recommends that countries ‘reshape’ financial structures to account for increased capital flows. Gradually incorporating climate stress-testing requirements into supervisory reviews and bank risk management obligations for national supervisors and central banks.
In the short term, to implement this, the Presidency will convene an independent expert group whose task is to refine data and develop concrete financing pathways to reach 1.3T in 2035, building on the action fronts defined in this roadmap, with a first report by October 2026. During 2026, the Presidency will also convene dialogue sessions with parties and stakeholders to discuss how to make progress on the action fronts. According to the report, medium to long term roadmap.
To improve predictability, developed countries could consider working together on a distribution plan and outline their intended contributions to achieve the target of at least US$300 billion by 2035, as well as other elements of the NCQG, such as access and adaptation finance, in their next biennial communication by the end of 2026, the report said.
Furthermore, based on the information received, Parties may request the Standing Committee on Finance to provide an overall approach towards achieving the various elements of the NCQG, taking into account, inter alia, information received from the biennial communications by 2027. The report recommends that the world’s 100 largest companies (ranked by market cap) could report annually on how they are contributing to the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions and national adaptation plans and the world. The 100 largest institutional investors (ranked by assets under management) can report annually on how they are contributing to the implementation of the NDCs and NAPs.
Dhruba Purkayastha, Advisor to ORF Middle East and Visiting Faculty, said, “Instead of arguing for $1.3 trillion, the Baku to Belem Road Map could have chosen to focus on effectively and efficiently using the agreed $300 billion by leveraging available concessional finance to direct private commercial finance/capital with a focus on global reserves of capital (and not annual flows) that will support a long-term low-carbon transition, More than $200 trillion for CO2 removal and building climate resilience.” IIM Calcutta said in a statement.
India’s Union Environment Ministry did not immediately respond to the plan.
“At its core, the Roadmap is about translating commitments into practical, inclusive climate finance action that is effective in delivering real-world results that protect lives and strengthen economies. For the first time, more than 200 governments, banks, businesses and communities have come together to outline practical solutions for mobilizing climate finance. The Roadmap shows how, by working together, we can mobilize climate finance to US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035 could bring tremendous benefits to the global economy – creating jobs, protecting communities and boosting innovation, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Still said in a statement.
“The Baku to Belém Roadmap turns the promises made at COP29 into a plan. It lays out a smart, holistic strategy to deliver $1.3 trillion per year in climate finance to developing countries, and start transforming the global economy right now. The value of the Roadmap is in combining practicality with a focus on scale and systems change. For too long, the climate community has been overly focused on relatively modest sums of public climate financing, while the Baku to Belém Roadmap The Belém plan is the right way to look at how “a broad set of public finance and policy changes could unlock larger flows from private investors,” said Melanie Robinson, global director of climate, economics and finance at the World Resources Institute.
EU ministers on Wednesday ratified the European Commission’s first “statement of intent” for 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions by 66.25-72.5% below 1990 levels. The NDC will be an important input at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil next week. The EU Council has also ratified the bloc’s target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. While this outlines Europe’s long-term ambition, up to 5% of the reductions are expected to come from carbon offsets outside the EU, according to the World Resources Institute, with an agreement to periodically review the plan.
China also formally updated its NDCs by submitting them to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on 3 November.
Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China, the world’s largest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions, will cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10% from peak levels and increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to more than 30% of total energy consumption by 2025. He also called on countries to adopt low carbon development. “China’s updated NDCs are an important moment in our collective climate effort. China’s NDCs will deliver clean, reliable and affordable energy on an unprecedented scale and help accelerate the transition by driving down the cost of clean technologies and driving innovation. Today’s news is another signal that the future global economy will run on clean energy. The NDCs will be one of the most important policy documents of this century because they can accelerate economic transformation, delivering more economic growth, jobs, affordable and safe energy, clean air and better Health,” Simon Steele, UN climate chief.
This leaves India’s NDC update for the period to 2035 among the big polluters. Union Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav said on Tuesday that an update will be announced after the deliberations are completed. The US, the largest historical greenhouse gas emitter, has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement.
