By Ramkant Chaudhary
Bihar assembly elections, slated for October-November 2025, promise to be a high-hand competition that can change the state’s political dynamics matrix. With a history contained in a population of 13.07 crore and a history contained in caste-based politics, Bihar is an important battleground for national and regional parties. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) -Al Dal (RJD) -Bald Mahagathabas and a new entry, Pacific, face a great challenge for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) -Bald Mahagathabas and a new entry, Pacific, Pacific, Pacific, Pacific, Pacific. As the first major election after Operation Sindoor, the election tests will be conducted whether the voters of Bihar seek continuity or change.
NDA, including JD (U), BJP, Lok Jansti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP (RV)), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Ham), enter the field with a mixed record. Nitish Kumar, an experienced of Bihar politics, has carried forward the state through better roads and power -like development milestones, but has to face criticism for his frequent coalition switch. His return to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections helped 30 of the 40 seats in Bihar to secure the alliance, in which BJP and JD (U) won 12, LJP (RV) 5, and Ham 1, and however, the C-Voter survey indicates that Nitish’s credibility rats at a peak from 60 percent, which is more than 60 percent. The BJP is to consolidate its hold, riding on the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and riding on the support of the Sveamsevak Sangh (RSS) of the President, as seen in its recent dominance in the state cabinet, out of 21, 21 out of 21 portfolio.
The Congress and the Left parties, including the RJD -led Mahagatdanan, are banking on the youth appeal and a story of jobs and social justice. In 2020, RJD emerged as a single-half party with 75 seats, which to capitalize on the anti-NDA’s 20-year rule. Tejashvi’s My-BAAP strategy-laying Muslim-yardav, daughter-in-law (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes), Aadhada (forward, ie upper castes), Audi Abari (half the population, women) and poor-IAM beyond their traditional Muslim-life bank beyond the Aadhaar of RJD. However, the limited success of the alliance in 2024, by winning only 9 Lok Sabha seats (RJD4, Congress 3, ML) 2), exposed the weaknesses, especially Congress’s vanning effects and internal strength.
Prashant Kishore’s life Suraj Party introduced a fresh dynamic, promising rule free from caste politics. Launched in October 2024, it won 10 percent vote share in the November 2024 by-elections, but failed to win any of the four seats contesting the election. Its focus on education, health and clean governance resonates with urban youth, but the rural struggles to enter Bihar, where caste is dominated. John Suraj’s plan to field candidates in all 243 seats can potentially benefit the NDA, which can benefit the NDA.
Voter Pulse
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results provide insight into Bihar’s voter spirit. The NDA’s 30-seats race reflected their organizational power and Nitish Kumar’s permanent rural appeal, especially through their love-tax strategy, especially between backward classes (EBC, 36.01 percent) and Kurmis (2.87Percent). However, its tally fell from 39 seats in 2019, showing cracks in its dominance. BJP’s disadvantage in Shahabad and Magadha, where Kori voters transferred to RJD, underlined the liquidity of the alignment of the caste. In 2019, 9 seats of Mahagatthadhan from 1 indicate a revival, with the youth to get dividends in constituencies like Tejashvi’s EBC and Aurangabad for the youth. Nevertheless, RJD’s incompetence in breaking NDA strongholds highlighted its dependence on Muslims and 14.26PERCENT votes.
The 2024 by-elections made voter trends more clear. The NDA sweep of all four seats-Belganj, Ramgarh, Tarari, and Imamganj, despite health concerns, enhanced their alliance harmony and flexibility of Nitish. A traditional stronghold for Manorama Devi of JD (U) by over 21,000 votes was a shock of RJD in Belganj, although Tejashvi dismissed it as a minor hiccup. Among the three seats, John finished third of Suraj, but its limited electoral heft also showed capacity. These results suggest that as long as there is anti -disdain, NDA’s development story and caste engineering are still dominated.
The 2023 caste survey of Bihar underlined the centrality of caste in its politics. EBCS (36.01 percent), OBCS (27.13PERCENT), SCS, 19.65PERCENT, and Scheduled Tribes (STS, 1.68PERCENT) forms 84.47Percent, which are with yadavs (14.26PERCENT) and Koeris (4.26Percent). Forward casts, including Brahmins (3.65PERCENT) and 3.45PERCENT, form only 15.52percent. The NDA’s love-kiss alliance has been a game-changer for Nitish, combining the RJD’s Muslim-Yadava base, uniting Kurmis and Koiris. However, RJD’s My-BAAP strategy wants to remove EBC and SC votes with mixed success in 2024. The caste-plated pitch of the Jan Suraj faces a difficult battle in a state, where the identity behaves voting, as seen in its by-election performance.
Political flashpoint
The election of 2025 is the first since Operation Sindor, a rift on terrorism that has given rise to debate. The BJP has honored it as the victory of nationalism and the defeat of terrorism, while the RJD and the Congress have accused the NDA of politicizing it to consolidate Hindu votes. The dispute could polar the voters, the NDA took advantage of it to project a tough stance and the RJD prepared it as an overache to distract it from the failures of the regime. The effect of operation on voter spirit, especially between urban and upper-caste voters, would be important.
The electoral landscape of Bihar varies. In urban areas like Patna and Muzaffarpur, in favor of NDA’s development record-road, electricity and law enforcement. However, with rural areas such as margin and tirhut floods, agrarian crisis and migration, fuel struggle with fuel dissatisfaction. Tejashvi’s promise of 10 million jobs and debt exemption targets these concerns, although feasibility is doubtful. John Suraj’s focus appeals to voters focusing on education and health, but there is a lack of rural traction without a caste anchor.
The strong female voters, a major demographic, are a major demographic from Nitish’s liquor ban. The NDA aims to maintain its support through welfare schemes, while RJD counters with financial assistance promises. Technology is another border, in which BJP’s digital campaign is colliding with the ground level WhatsApp network of RJD. John Suraj’s viral outreach targets youth, but low literacy and digital access in rural Bihar limits its effects.
Nitish Kumar’s health and leadership is facing, in which opposition leaders like Tejasavi and Prashant Kishore questioned his fitness. Nitish’s son, Nishant Kumar is speculated, contesting from Harnat, a conspiracy, which potentially indicates a succession plan. After the post -Chief Minister’s election, BJP’s secret comment has stressed relations with JD (U), which emphasizes Nitish as NDA’s face. Tejashvi, supported by Lalu Prasad, is the Chief Minister of Mahagatdanan, who has 38.3Percent support in Rai’s survey against 35.6Percent of Nitish. Prashant Kishore, adopting himself as the Chief Minister’s contender, will produce a bold but unused claim, the next leader of Jan Suraj Bihar.
Will 2025 change the syllabus of Bihar?
The 2025 election is a litmus test for the political future of Bihar. The stability and development records of the NDA came out against the populist promises of Mahagatdanan and the reformist vision of the sun. Historical trends suggest that the voters of Bihar are swept away by caste alliance and strategic alliances, but increasing demand for jobs, infrastructure and quality of life indicates a subtle change. The NDA’s by-election sweep and Lok Sabha dominance suggests that it enters along the side, but keeps the youth appeal of opponents and Tejashvi open. Jaan Suraj, despite its discussion, despite the risk being a spoiled, does not make a strong rural base.
The result of the election is beyond Bihar, will shape national politics before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. One NDA win will strengthen the BJP’s dominance and Nitish’s relevance, while a Mahagatdanan victory can revive India’s block. The performance of the sun sun, even if it is modest, can indicate a new paradigm if it maintains speed. For 13.07 crore people of Bihar, the ballot will decide whether the state continues its incremental progress or embraces a new direction, balances caste loyal with aspirations for change.
(Ramkant Chaudhary is a senior journalist and communication strategist. He has worked in various editorial roles with major media organizations. The opinions expressed in the article are his own.)
