TeaThe story of an election in Bihar bears the burden of a state system that has been facing poverty for decades. As a state with India’s lowest per capita income and highest rate of multidimensional poverty, public expectations of change and political churn seem high. For anxiously awaited voters, the contest looms as a decisive test of India’s democratic form, asking an important question – will the election seek to maintain the status quo of welfare-dependence for the poor, or can the verdict provide the structural change needed to lift millions out of poverty?
The electoral map of Bihar, spanning two decades from 2005 to the current elections, reveals a dynamic scenario of social change and political realignment between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the NDA. grand alliance (MGB). The dominant pattern is one of constant flux, punctuated by extremely narrow margins, such as the NDA’s narrow victory of 125 to 110 seats in the 2020 assembly elections.
Women, youth and new entrants
The changing dynamics of voting percentage has significantly changed the political landscape of Bihar. The state has long been seen as a bastion of caste-based and coalition politics.
Between 2015 and 2020, electoral data outlines a notable gender gap in participation that has worked in women’s favor: female turnout increased to 60.48% in 2015 compared to 53.32% for men, and although it declined slightly in 2020, women (59.6%) still outnumbered men (54.7%). This continued engagement points to the emergence of women as a decisive electoral constituency, capable of overcoming patriarchal voting norms and patterns set by caste loyalties. There are several factors contributing to this change such as targeted welfare schemes like Cycle and Ujjwala Yojana as well as improvements in the public distribution system. These have significantly improved women’s social and economic agency, encouraging them to vote independently rather than succumbing to male family preferences. Political parties, particularly the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, have crafted women-centric governance narratives that link gender empowerment to governance credibility. This has strengthened his appeal among women.
Additionally, urban youth voters, especially in districts like Patna, Muzaffarpur and Gaya, have become increasingly issue-oriented – prioritizing employment, education and governance performance over community-based loyalty. This has led to vote fragmentation and anti-incumbency tendencies, as young voters are less attached to traditional coalition bases.
The combined effect of high female participation and vocal youth voting has made Bihar elections more volatile and competitive. This has undermined the predictability of caste mathematics, weakened the hold of the legacy alliance, and prompted political actors to reimagine their reach by keeping social welfare, education and governance efficiency at the forefront of their campaigns.
While caste alliances have become stronger in parts of rural Bihar, they are actively fragmenting in peri-urban, migrant-worker districts. This disruption of old patterns is being accelerated by new entrants like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Movement.
Mr Kishor’s political strategy and voter messaging resonate directly with traditional loyalties. He is leading cross-caste mobilization among youth in western districts like Muzaffarpur and West Champaran, emphasizing a “governance-first narrative” focused on education, healthcare and anti-corruption. His core message appeals to youth who are angry at high unemployment and forced migration. As Jan Suraj is contesting the elections, political commentary has cited the party as presenting itself as a new third front alternative to the perennial caste-centric politics of Bihar.
question of development
Bihar’s electoral geography highlights a clear economic divide that mirrors its political alignment. Urban consolidation has consistently favored the NDA. In rapidly urbanizing districts like Patna and Gaya, voter turnout has been remarkably stable, indicating enduring support for the alliance. These areas, which benefit from visible infrastructure and welfare initiatives, have repeatedly rewarded the incumbents. Between 2005 and 2015, the NDA’s vote shares in such constituencies increased steadily, underscoring the persistence of development-based voting in Bihar’s urban centres. Yet, beneath this surface of stability lies a deep contradiction.
The NDA’s urban dominance rests on a “development-oriented” narrative that hides significant contradictions. Although its support stems from visible benefits such as roads, bridges, power and metro projects, these largely represent symbolic progress rather than transformative development. Persistent structural issues, particularly the absence of industrial employment, reveal a wide gap between the optics of development and the substance of economic transformation. Infrastructure has become synonymous with progress, even as job creation and industrial diversification lag behind. For example, the Patna Metro enhances the image of those in power but does nothing to address the underlying employment shortage. Meanwhile, the margin of victory has steadily shrunk, with winners now representing barely 20% of registered voters. Bihar’s urban paradox, therefore, is one of stability amid discontent: a sustained regime built on visible governance, yet based on a shrinking representation base and incomplete structural transformation.
ideology vs protection
Bihar’s political divide today is shaped by two distinct but competing logics – the NDA’s performance-driven governance model and the MGB’s populist, patronage-based mobilization. Out of power for nearly two decades, the MGB has relied on redistribution assurances rather than governance records. Its manifesto, ‘Tejashwi’s Pledge’, exemplifies this approach, promising free electricity, ₹2,500 monthly transfers, job guarantees and expanded livelihood schemes to attract those excluded from Bihar’s uneven development. While the NDA envisages visible development, the MGB seeks to convert economic vulnerability into electoral support through welfare-based outreach. These competitive strategies show how deprivation and aspirations are transformed into political legitimacy in a state that is still negotiating the path to economic transformation.
This division becomes even sharper when viewed through the lens of Bihar’s uneven development map. NITI Aayog’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), despite some of its methodological limitations, shows how Bihar’s overall poverty score improved from 0.265 in 2015-16 (NFHS-4) to 0.160 in 2019-21 (NFHS-5), while the progress is spatially asymmetric. District-level inequalities in health, education and living standards interact closely with constituency-level political representation, determining how development translates into democracy.
Deprivation is deeply prevalent in the Seemanchal region. Madhepura has the highest recorded multidimensional poverty in the state and is one of the most politically contested areas. Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) 2020 analysis of assembly constituencies in the belt shows that while the winners secured 49-55% of valid votes, their representativeness (the share of total registered voters for which they actually spoke) was only around 30-33%. In Araria and Purnia assembly constituencies, Congress’s Abidur Rehman secured 55% of the votes but represented only 33% of the voters, while BJP’s Vijay Khemka had 53% or 32% of the votes. This shows that even where voter mobilization is high, the majority of voters remain outside the scope of effective representation. Seemanchal politics thus thrives not on collective consensus but on targeted mobilization, where parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) garner political visibility through welfare networks and community brokers.
Patna’s MPI is 0.107, with only 23.09% of residents being multidimensionally poor, the lowest in Bihar. Yet ADR data shows that despite a high vote share of 54-59%, the average representativeness of MLAs from Patna’s Kumhrar, Bankipur and Digha remains between 19% and 22%. These are among the least representative constituencies in the state, reflecting not apathy but fragmentation within the urbanized electorate. The BJP continues to dominate, but declining margins and low representation depth indicate that voters now evaluate governance through performance-based criteria rather than patronage.
Nalanda provides a midpoint on this continuum. With an MPI of 0.142 and a poverty population of around 30%, it has a vote share of around 39–43% and representation around 23% in constituencies like Nalanda and Rajgir. These consistent figures reflect a more stable form of developmental politics, where citizens participate not to claim welfare, but to preserve governance models focused on infrastructure, electrification and women’s empowerment. This intermediate zone represents an electorate negotiating between old-style welfare mobilization and new regime-based appeals.
Further west, Bhojpur and Begusarai show how development can reshape democratic meaning. There has been a sharp decline in MPI values – from 0.188 to 0.121 in Bhojpur and 0.259 to 0.128 in Begusarai, while ADR data shows the winners securing 39-46% of the votes and representing 23-27% of the voters. Here legitimacy derives less from numerical majority and more from administrative performance.
Ultimately, Bihar’s district and constituency patterns together trace a curve from development to democracy. However, welfare politics has retained symbolic power: with nutritional deprivation at over 50% and maternal health deficit at close to 37%, central schemes remain electorally salient.
Do Bihar
Bihar elections thus emerge as a decisive ideological contest between the “two Bihars”. The ruling coalition still continues to rely on clientelism, targeting high-poverty areas where deprivation-induced mobilization ensures turnout but suppresses competitiveness, treating welfare as recurring political spectacle. In contrast, the newly formed Jan Suraj is attempting to break this old system by mobilizing around a “governance-first” narrative. This challenges the transaction model sustained by cash transfers and token schemes. The assembly’s decision will decide whether Bihar remains stuck in dependency or moves towards a new politics of evaluative inquiry, where poverty no longer guarantees loyalty, but demands accountability.
Dipanshu Mohan is Professor and Dean, OP Jindal Global University, Visiting Professor, LSE and Academic Research Fellow, University of Oxford. With inputs from Ankur Singh, Saksham Singh, Aditi Lazarus and Nagappan Arun from JGU.
