New Delhi: For whom does the bell ring this year? The year 2024 has come Lok Sabha The elections, and assembly elections in eight states, are setting the stage for a political confrontation.
Contrary to predictions, BJP Faced with tough competition as the Lok Sabha elections sprang a major surprise as the saffron party had to battle a shaky majority based entirely on NDA allies to form the government. However, BJP changed things in the second half of the game as it managed to win crucial state assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively.
2024 can also be seen as a crucial moment for regional parties as they challenged the dominance of national parties and turned the debate once again towards local issues.
Meanwhile, the future of the India Bloc, which looked bright after the general elections, looks bleak as the alliance is showing internal cracks and fractures after failing to turn the tables in the subsequent assembly elections.
Here is the list of winners and losers for 2024:
winners
In the backdrop of the pandemic and global recession, Narendra Modi has managed to establish himself as the Prime Minister for the third term.
However, contrary to forecasts, the BJP won 240 seats in the election and its allies, with a little help from the TDP (16) and JD(U), helped it cross the 282-majority mark.
However, the second half of the year was more fruitful for PM Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party as it managed to win the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections with a thumping majority.
PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah again proved their electoral expertise. His strategy under PM Modi’s ‘If one is safe’ strategy helped BJP and Mahayuti alliance achieve historic victories in Haryana and Maharashtra. BJP’s record performance in the assembly elections showed that the ‘Modi wave’ has not subsided, in fact, the best is yet to come.
Devendra Fadnavis
After a long deliberation, Devendra Fadnavis returned to the top post of Maharashtra after giving his best performance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections and emerging as the biggest winner of BJP.
Fadnavis was credited with the success of the BJP-led Mahayuti in the state, especially in the Vidarbha region. “Devendra is Nagpur’s gift to the country,” PM Modi had said about him at an election rally. The 54-year-old leader, who has deep roots in the RSS, praised the BJP for working in coordination with the organization after its defeat in the Lok Sabha. Helped.
Akhilesh Yadav
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav managed to make a major dent in the BJP’s momentum in Uttar Pradesh, despite predictions that the saffron party would equal, if not better, his performance in 2019. Ram Mandir Inauguration Samajwadi Party, the cornerstone of the India Bloc in the state, secured 37 seats and once again established itself as one of the big giants of politics in Uttar Pradesh.
However, the party suffered a setback in the subsequent assembly by-election, where it lost two of its seats to the BJP. BJP won six out of total nine seats, while Akhilesh’s SP got only two seats.
JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, a veteran of coalition politics, changed the script of the Lok Sabha elections after leaving the India Bloc despite being one of its founding members.
Despite declaring unconditional support for Modi 3.0, the fact remains that Kumar holds the keys to a Modi 3.0 government by driving a hard bargain on some key issues. JD(U) expressed its views on some of the key issues like Centre’s pressure for lateral entry into top government posts and pan-India caste census.
In an event with PM Modi in Patna, Nitish Kumar had promised PM Modi that he would not have a change of heart again. PM Modi laughed out loud at this, who certainly hopes Nitish doesn’t have a change of heart in the near future.
Chandrababu Naidu
Chandrababu Naidu proved to be one of the most important allies for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. TDP made unexpected gains in Andhra Pradesh as a result of its last-minute electoral pact with BJP and its return to the NDA.
As part of the seat-sharing agreement of the NDA allies, the TDP was allotted 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, while the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats.
Naidu has emerged not only as a king in Andhra Pradesh but also as a kingmaker as he holds the keys to the NDA government at the Center after TDP won 16 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats.
Hemant Soren retained power in Jharkhand for the second consecutive term despite his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in a money laundering case earlier this year.
Soren’s election strategy focused on his government’s tribal identity narrative as well as welfare initiatives such as the “Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana”.
Soren and his wife MLA Kalpana Soren held around 200 campaign rallies after the election was announced.
The party demonstrated resilience despite significant obstacles. Despite anti-incumbency sentiments, the BJP proved unable to muster enough support to establish a government.
lost
Rahul Gandhi started 2024 with his Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0 traveling through 15 states, 110 districts and over 100 Lok Sabha seats. The outreach programme, an excellent effort by the Gandhi family, helped the Congress deliver its best performance in the last two general elections.
With this, Rahul Gandhi became the face of the anti-BJP group and also the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha.
However, the Congress once again failed to make any impact in the second half of the year. Despite its lead in the Lok Sabha, the Congress lost Haryana and repeated its record in Maharashtra. Despite the BJP battling anti-incumbency in Haryana and Maharashtra, star campaigner Gandhi failed to change the party’s fortunes. The Congress also failed to garner votes with the help of farmers and wrestlers, who were in direct competition with the BJP governments.
Congress is part of the government in Jammu and Kashmir, but only with the support of the National Conference. It is understood that the National Conference entered into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress to help it win in the Jammu region, where the BJP has dominance. However, the party failed to cause any significant damage to the BJP in the region.
Sharad Pawar
After a stellar performance in the Lok Sabha, Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP has now become one of the smallest parties in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. In the Pawar vs Pawar battle, Sharad’s nephew Ajit emerged with a stronger position, while the veteran leader managed to bag only 10 seats out of 68.
Ajit Pawar’s decision to field his wife Sunetra Pawaragainst cousin Supriya Sule Baramati seat proved to be a setback for him, the advantage of which ultimately went to Sharad Pawar. Additionally, Sharad Pawar has hinted at retirement after his Rajya Sabha term ends in 2026. Does this mark the end of Sharad Pawar’s active political career?
Arvind Kejriwal
After a disappointing performance in Delhi in the general elections, Aam Aadmi Party’s efforts to make inroads in Haryana also suffered a setback as the assembly results were not entirely in the party’s favour.
AAP had campaigned on the strength of its popular governments in neighboring Delhi and Punjab. The Haryana results come at a time when Arvind Kejriwal had quit his post as Delhi Chief Minister saying he would continue in the post only if AAP forms the government after next year’s assembly elections.
Although Haryana elections will not have a direct impact on the upcoming assembly elections in Delhi, but not being able to secure even a single seat despite contesting on almost all the seats can dampen the enthusiasm of AAP workers.
Naveen Patnaik
After being in power for an impressive 23 years, BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik lost to the BJP in Odisha as his party managed to win only 51 out of 147 seats in the assembly elections. The BJP also swept the Lok Sabha elections in the state and won 20 out of 21 parliamentary seats.
A major factor behind the BJD’s decline was growing anti-outsider sentiment, particularly directed at VK Pandian, Naveen Patnaik’s trusted aide and private secretary. Pandian, a former IAS officer, had significant influence in both the BJD and the state’s administrative machinery, with him often being seen as the de facto ruler.
From Pandyan’s external position Tamil NaduResentment arose among the Oriya population, who became increasingly disillusioned with his dominance and approach to rule. The BJP effectively took advantage of this sentiment and portrayed the BJD as a party controlled by an unelected bureaucrat.
voting
Without a doubt, the biggest loser of 2024 was the exit polls, which lost all their credibility after making wrong predictions in election after election. Most exit polls in the Lok Sabha elections had given the BJP a comfortable lead of over 350, with an average of 371.
Miscalculation of voters’ perceptions can possibly be attributed to factors such as inadequate sample size, tight deadlines, competition, geographical challenges, linguistic barriers and financial stakes.
In both large-scale elections such as the Lok Sabha elections and smaller elections such as the assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, actual results often differed from exit poll predictions, with Jammu and Kashmir being the only exception.
