-Devendra Fadnavis, Chief Minister
From strategizing and working on alliances to campaigning, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has led the BJP’s quest to win all the 29 municipal corporations. But the holy grail is BMC. Fadnavis has used all his strength to capture the Mumbai Municipal Corporation, which has been the stronghold of undivided Shiv Sena for 25 years.
In 2017, the BJP had come close to wresting power in the BMC from its then ally, Shiv Sena, but Fadnavis chose to keep his government stable rather than compete with its ally to gain power in the civic body.
However, Fadnavis actually has a clear chance of winning the Mumbai civic body in 2022, following divisions in the Army and his strained relationship with Army (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray. A victory would consolidate the BJP’s control over India’s financial capital.
If the Sena (UBT)-MNS is victorious, it will be a blow to Fadnavis, as it will give Thackeray a platform to make a comeback after his defeat in the 2024 assembly elections. Of course, victory will make Fadnavis the undisputed leader in Maharashtra.
-Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief
After the party lost to arch rival Eknath Shinde in 2022 and a disappointing performance in the 2024 assembly elections, Bal Thackeray’s successor is fighting a do-or-die battle.
Ruling the BMC for decades has been a source of strength for the undivided Shiv Sena. Mumbai has been the base of the party. Winning the BMC elections will give Uddhav Thackeray the much-needed boost to make a comeback into state politics. This is why he ended his rift with his cousin and MNS chief Raj Thackeray. Together, they hope to not only regain control of the BMC but also keep the Sena founder’s legacy intact.
For Uddhav, losing the BMC elections would mean surrendering his party’s last bastion. More importantly, it will deal a huge blow to the “sons of the soil” issue that Thackeray has been using. A defeat could also prompt the ruling parties to further weaken the military (UBT) by removing its MPs and MLAs. What’s worse is that defeating Uddhav in Mumbai, even with BJP’s help, would also mean that Shinde would stake his claim on the Sena’s legacy across Maharashtra.
Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Minister, Shiv Sena chief
Building on the strong performance of the first phase in the local body elections, Eknath Shinde wants to repeat that performance in 29 cities. Across the state, the Sena and the BJP are contesting against each other in 13 municipal bodies and Shinde is trying to consolidate his position as an independent.
However, their focus is on Mumbai as well as the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). He will have to retain power in Thane, his hometown, win power in Kalyan-Dombivli, which he has made a prestige issue, and Navi Mumbai, where the Sena and the BJP are rivals. But winning the Mumbai civic elections is extremely important for the Sena-BJP alliance.
If the Mahayuti alliance is successful in Mumbai, it will be a decisive victory for Shinde over Uddhav Thackeray, putting an end to the bitter rivalry that has defined their relationship for the last three years. He can then claim the legacy of Sena founder Bal Thackeray and move to politically dismantle Uddhav’s Sena (UBT), by bringing most of his MLAs and MPs to his side.
Mahayuti’s defeat in Mumbai will give Uddhav a chance to make a comeback in state politics. This would also legitimize Thackeray’s position as a custodian of Marathi Manoos heritage, which could further harm Shinde’s political prospects.
Ajit Pawar, Deputy Chief Minister and NCP chief
Like Uddhav Thackeray, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar has focused on a limited number of civic bodies – choosing to focus on two municipal corporations in his stronghold of Pune district. In these corporations, in Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, where the BJP was in power, his NCP is in a head-to-head fight with its Mahayuti ally BJP.
To improve his prospects, Ajit made peace with uncle Sharad Pawar, hoping that the NCP-NCP (SP) alliance would help him regain power in Pune and his former stronghold, Pimpri-Chinchwad.
Ajit’s fight with BJP has turned very bad, he told how those who accused him in the irrigation scam are now sitting with him in power. The BJP hit back with veiled threats over the ongoing investigation against him.
A victory would strengthen Ajit Pawar’s position within the ruling Mahayuti alliance, but a defeat in both corporations would see the BJP tighten its grip on him.
Ajit also seems keen to go ahead with an alliance with Sharad Pawar’s party NCP (SP). With strained relations with the BJP and getting closer to his uncle, Ajit Dada may be ready to take some big steps.
Raj Thackeray, MNS chief
After a disappointing performance in the 2024 assembly elections in which he could not secure even a single seat, embattled Raj Thackeray has decided to join hands with estranged cousin Uddhav. The reunification has made the Mumbai municipal elections the most important contest in Maharashtra.
Over the years, Raj kept changing his political stance and his party became a minor player in state politics. He decided to bury his differences with Uddhav and is now trying his best to win BMC, which is a tough task. Gaining power in BMC will give new life to MNS. It will also give Raj a platform to make a comeback into state politics.
The defeat will force him to rethink his strategy and decide whether he wants to continue the alliance with Uddhav. Defeat will also mean that seeking votes in the name of Marathi Manoos will not get the support of Marathi speaking people in Mumbai-MMR. This would deal a serious blow to their main issue – “Justice for the sons of the soil”.
Varsha Gaikwad, Mumbai Congress chief
Mumbai Congress president and MP from Mumbai North-Central Varsha Gaikwad was given the opportunity to rebuild the Congress in the city where it was born. But there are no signs of revival within the party and on the ground. Gaekwad was adamant on not forging an alliance with his cousin Thackeray, saying it would alienate North Indian voters. This was the main reason why the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) did not contest the elections as an alliance, turning it into a triangular contest, which could have given an edge to the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena alliance.
The Congress tried to save the situation by forming a hasty alliance with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VB). However, no party could field candidates in 20 wards.
If Congress manages to win 30 seats like in 2017, Gaikwad would have been able to retain some ground for his party. The disappointing performance will put a serious question mark on his political fortunes.
Ganesh Naik, BJP minister and prominent leader of Navi Mumbai
Ganesh Naik has dominated the politics of Navi Mumbai for years. In the last 25 years, he changed parties twice, yet his grip on the satellite city of Mumbai never loosened. During this time, he also retained control over the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation.
Naik is facing a tough fight in this election as Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena is giving a tough fight. There is no love lost between him and Shinde, with Shinde taking many decisions related to Navi Mumbai as the state’s Urban Development Minister. Moreover, Shinde has almost ousted Shiv Sena (UBT) in Navi Mumbai and fielded some of Naik’s local rivals against his candidates.
The election campaign saw a heated exchange between the two, with Naik claiming that Shinde would face trouble in the coming days. If Naik manages to win the Navi Mumbai civic elections, his dominance over the city will continue. The defeat will be a big blow for them, at a time when the city is set to see a major development with the opening of the international airport.
Prakash Ambedkar, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) chief
After a strong performance in the 2019 assembly elections, the Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA has seen a steady decline. In the 2024 elections, he did not form an alliance with the opposition parties and was accused of secretly helping the BJP. Since then, Ambedkar has been unable to get rid of that charge.
Ambedkar tried to burnish his image by forming an alliance with the Congress in Mumbai and some other cities for the civic elections. But their joint campaign could not really take off. In Mumbai, Congress gave 62 seats to VBA but VBA failed to field candidates on 20 seats. It remains to be seen whether the alliance will translate into gains for either party at the grassroots level.
The impressive performance of the Congress-VBA alliance, especially in Mumbai, could be the beginning of a new chapter in state politics. This would also make Ambedkar a prominent leader of socially backward communities as other Dalit leaders lost their power, and he could emerge as a major player in state politics. On the other hand, a poor performance could mean the end of the new experiment in the opposition arena, if both sides blame each other for the defeat.
