France is without a government or annual budget. Germany, considered the cornerstone of European stability, is being run by a caretaker administration. Meanwhile, Poland has temporarily suspended the right to asylum, a cornerstone of European values, under a “bold new migration strategy” in what looks like a move that undermines EU ideals. Russia is firmly in the driver’s seat in the Ukraine war. And as if that weren’t enough, the EU is looking forward to a new US presidency – which promises to raise import tariffs and bully Europe’s NATO allies into raising more cash.
These aren’t just random hiccups. France, Germany and Poland—the big boys of the EU—are all in turmoil. In fact, when the pillars of a building start cracking, how long can the roof last?
A union in crisis
The European Union, built on the lofty ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom of expression, now finds itself standing on the brink of an existential crisis. The irony is as rich as it is sad: a union based on unity is crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions.
Let’s start with the obvious. Britain left the union, but it is not alone. In France, Marine Le Pen lurks dangerously in the political shadows, her far-right populism offering an attractive, anti-EU narrative to voters. In Italy, Matteo Salvini champions a similar brand of nationalist zeal, while in Germany, the far-right AfD party is no longer a marginal player but a rising force. The EU is not only decaying from the outside, it is also under siege from within.
When Europhiles play the populist card
The Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, is a well-known Europhile. But it was shocking to many in the EU that he suspended the right to asylum in their own country, setting aside his own principles. Tusk was a man who championed European values for years, and now he is undermining one of their cornerstones to save his own skin. Cynically, they justified their decision by saying that Russia and Belarus were sending asylum seekers towards their country and other EU member states, an allegation still unproven. But his critics say his real concerns lie much closer to home. His pro-EU Civic Platform coalition may have lost in Poland’s parliamentary elections last year, but it has been flailing ever since. Polls now show Tusk’s party in a tight race with the Eurosceptic Law and Justice party (PiS).
Tusk is not alone. Struggling Europhile leaders across the continent are suddenly discovering the political utility of “securing national borders.” Take, for example, Germany’s embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz. His popularity is decreasing rapidly. Recently, Scholz imposed border controls on all of Germany’s land borders, citing an Islamic terrorist attack in Solingen as the trigger. But let’s call it what it is: a calculated move to appease voters fed up with migration and fend off rising populist parties like the AfD in the run-up to the February elections.
Double standards
Then there is Brussels itself – the sacred guardian of European unity, democracy and human rights. It has taken a remarkable U-turn on migration. Recently, after one of its signature closed-door meetings, the European Commission threw its weight behind Tusk. In a statement backed by all 27 member states, Brussels claimed that Russia and Belarus are “abusing our values” and “undermining our democracy”. It justified its stance by saying that “exceptional situations require appropriate measures”.
Apparently, the EU has decided that border controls are acceptable as long as the justification is wrapped in anti-Russian rhetoric and presented by the right kind of leader. To understand the EU’s hypocrisy, let’s remind ourselves what it did to Viktor Orban’s Hungary – Orban became the ‘bad boy’ of Europe for supporting Russia. Recently, the EU’s top court fined Hungary €200m for failing to comply with the union’s asylum policies. The court will also impose a fine of €1m per day unless the court changes its policy. The European Court of Justice said Budapest is violating the 2020 ruling and violating EU laws by forcing asylum seekers to travel to Belgrade or Kiev to apply for a travel permit to enter Hungary. .
It is impossible to ignore these double standards. When Poland’s PiS government first cracked down on migration, Brussels immediately condemned it as a betrayal of European values. But now that Tusk is doing the same, suddenly, the EU is completely in agreement with it.
France is facing distrust of the people
President Macron and the so-called political class of France are facing public distrust. A recent Le Monde survey paints a grim picture: only 22% of French people trust their MPs – a decline of seven points in just a year. Voters are fed up with the endless political bickering. And who can blame them? With confidence in the system eroded, new parliamentary elections next summer seem unlikely to magically deliver a stable majority.
The timing couldn’t be worse. The war in Ukraine is at a potential tipping point, and across the Atlantic, a new Trump administration looms, eager to start a trade war that could jolt Europe’s fragile economy. For now, Macron still has the reins – at least on paper. But he will have to convince France’s allies that the country is not going to completely disintegrate. With domestic impasse and a global crisis looming, it’s up to them to prove that France can still play ball on the world stage. The question is, does anyone still believe he can accomplish it?
Ukraine obsession: a crisis of priorities
The EU is pouring billions of dollars into Ukraine in the name of standing up to Russian aggression – defense aid, financial packages, reconstruction pledges – everything. But its own citizens are burdened with rising costs. Energy bills are skyrocketing, inflation continues to rise and wages remain stagnant. Let’s be clear, I live and travel in the center of Europe and I feel this: the EU’s continued commitment to Ukraine is not only draining its coffers, but also harming its people.
The Biden administration, once the puppet master, has drawn the EU deeper into the Ukrainian quagmire. Washington’s strategy is clear: Keep Europe committed to Ukraine as a front-line bulwark against Russia. But what did Europe gain? Endless sanctions that did more damage to its own economies than Moscow’s, and a cold winter of discontent fueled by overdependence on expensive trans-Atlantic LNG imports. Meanwhile, as I said in my previous column, Russia, though battered, is not broken. Its economy is thriving and its regional hold in eastern Ukraine remains strong.
A strange dance with Trump and Musk
Europe’s love affair with American technology and political elites has turned surprisingly sour. The triumphant return of Donald Trump and his friendship with Elon Musk could spell trouble for the EU’s ambitious tech action.
Let’s talk about X, Musk’s digital playground and its clash with the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). This is not just another slap on the wrist regulation. Passed in 2022, the DSA packed a punch, demanding platforms to remove illegal content or face fines up to 6% of their annual revenue. Musk’s Ax is on the radar of EU regulators, who have accused him of multiple violations of DSA rules. Now, they’re considering their next move – fine X, slap Musk with a penalty, or go ahead with both. But that was before Trump came into play. Now that he is, the EU’s tech campaign is about to get a lot messier.
Digital dinosaurs in a world of tech titans
One of the EU’s biggest problems is that it is not disintegrating – it has become badly stagnant. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi sounded the alarm in September. In his highly anticipated 328-page report, Draghi left no stone unturned: “This is an existential challenge,” he said. Europe needs to increase its annual investment to €800 billion to keep pace with the US and China. Without it, the continent risks turning into dust.
Seattle-based Indian-origin technology expert S. Aamir Arfi says Europe needs to act fast, as it currently lags behind all the top players. He says, “Silicon Valley is innovating rapidly, China is dominating AI and 5G, and even India is emerging as a tech superpower. Unfortunately, Europe is stuck with rules and bureaucracy , which is dangerously close to stagnation and irrelevance.”
“Consider the cold, hard facts,” says Arfi, “America dominates Big Tech and is home to giants like Apple, Google, and Microsoft. China has its own state-backed giants—Tencent, Alibaba and Huawei. But Europe? This is what SAP claims only. Draghi says only four of the world’s top 50 tech companies are European. He doesn’t mince words: “Europe largely missed out on the Internet-led digital revolution and the productivity gains it brought.”
The EU seems to be spending more time on regulation than innovation. Its core Digital Services and Markets Act is more about policing foreign technology than promoting local development. Meanwhile, European startups are largely struggling due to red tape and a lack of venture capital. Europe is in dilemma over morality, while its brightest minds head to Silicon Valley or Shenzhen.
Draghi’s diagnosis is clear: Europe is not just falling behind – it is failing to show up. If it doesn’t act boldly and invest massively, it risks becoming a digital backwater, sidelined in future-defining industries. As Arfi says, “Europe needs a technological revolution and it needs it now.”
The biggest threat to the EU comes not from Moscow or Beijing but from within. Populist and nationalist movements are growing from a toxic mix of economic anxiety, cultural insecurity and distrust of Brussels. Caught in the trap of good intentions but poor implementation, the EU risks becoming irrelevant – not through dramatic collapse, but through slow, self-inflicted collapse.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
