COP30 (Conference of the Parties) began in the Brazilian Amazon city of Belem today (Monday) with high expectations that it would be a watershed moment for countries in the Global South. It will also be an important meeting, as there is likely to be no official participation from the Trump administration, yet observers expect China to play a relatively prominent role in the talks.
Adaptation indicators, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and implementation of the Paris Agreement, as well as the NDCs submitted so far for the period to 2030, the Just Transition Work Program and delivery of climate finance, among others, may be discussed during the negotiations.
Observers and negotiators who wished to remain anonymous warned that there were strong diplomatic headwinds that the parties should be mindful of. It is important to remember that under pressure from the United States, member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed voting on a strategic plan to transition the shipping industry away from fossil fuel use and become ‘net-zero’ by 2050.
The US has warned of retaliation and sanctions against countries voting in favor of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) resolution on cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships, observers said. One observer said, “There are similar fears, and there may be pressure on particular parties. That’s why COP30 will be a very challenging environment diplomatically.”
On Friday, Brazil’s COP30 presidency sent its ninth letter to parties, summarizing what is likely to happen. The letter invites all parties to help turn the gap into advantage.
Taking inspiration from the latest reports, including the Global Tipping Points Report, the letter acknowledges the scale of the challenges ahead and the means to respond as the global community gathers in Belém.
Following the completion of the Paris Rulebook at COP29, the latest edition will be the first COP where the full policy cycle of the Paris Agreement is in motion. The paper states that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), and enhanced transparency frameworks are now active instruments of global climate governance.
While it may seem that the stakes are not as high as, say, last year when the new collective quantitative target was on the table for negotiation, experts said the positions adopted by countries could still send important signals.
HT reported on November 6 that the Brazilian COP30 and Azerbaijan COP29 presidencies have released the much-awaited report on the ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap to USD 1.3T’, which documents how to distribute USD 1.3 trillion annually to developing countries from all international sources by 2035. But this document will not be negotiated and will remain outside the work of COP30.
“I urge all parties to use our work as a mutirão (collective effort) under the negotiation agenda to move the Paris policy cycle from design to delivery. COP30 can signal the maturity of governance – from negotiation to coordinated implementation – based on equity, science and cooperation,” COP30 President Andre Corra do Lago wrote in his latest letter.
China can play a major role
Observers believe that China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter, is positioning itself to fill the void created by the US, especially because it also has economic interests in the green transition.
“Earlier this year, at a COP event in April 2025 – the Leaders’ Summit on Climate and Equitable Transition, President Xi Jinping made a strong advocacy for China to remain committed to global climate goals. Xi criticized ‘major countries’ for unilateralism, while reiterating China’s support for international climate cooperation through multilateral governance platforms. Xi called China a ‘doer’ that has taken strong action for concrete results,” Pooja Vijay. Ramamurthy, fellow, Center for Social End, said. Economic progress. “Second, Xi also called for a protectionist stance of the powers that be, promoting technological innovation and industrial transformation through the free movement of high-quality green products and cooperation. Therefore, given that these are China’s stances on past climate events, it will definitely play a leadership role.”
China could call for the continuation of multilateral fora, encouraging countries to engage in constructive climate talks. It will signal its own large-scale, rapid green transformation, establishing itself as a leader whose model can be followed. Instead of keeping a low profile, it is expected that China will portray itself as a champion of the green transition, given that other major powers such as the US are lagging behind.
However, it will, as always, position itself in the Global South camp and call for solidarity against early coal cuts. Ramamurthy said this is reflected in China’s NDC, which some critics say is not as ambitious as some had expected.
Adaptation is likely to be important for India
HT reported on November 4 that finalizing adaptation indicators will be a key issue for India at the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belem, Union Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav said at a briefing. Yadav said, “Adaptation is an important issue at COP30. There is a need to rationalize adaptation indicators. This will be a big issue. Indicators should be rationalized based on national conditions, finance, technology, capacity etc.” India’s nationally determined contribution and national adaptation plan are also expected soon. It is likely to present its successful renewable energy transition at COP30. India has achieved one of its Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement 5 years early. It has exceeded its target of installing 50% of its electricity capacity from non-fossil sources. New and Renewable Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi has said that India is confident of achieving the target of 500 GW installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
“The time for promises is now over. COP30 must mark the shift from a bank of commitments to a true bank of actions, where delivery, not declarations, defines progress. Nowhere is this more urgent than in South Asia, a region on the front lines of the climate crisis, from small island states like Sri Lanka to the mountains of Nepal and vulnerable states of India. For India, climate action is both a necessity and an opportunity driven by innovation and partnership. But to succeed, the world must come together “Smarter, more inclusive multilateralism that rewards implementation and builds real coalitions,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and COP30 Special Envoy representing South Asia.
COP when 1.5°C target becomes obsolete
It will be important to see how parties respond to different scientific indicators at COP30. The UN Environment Programme’s emissions gap report indicates that the temporary exceedance of the Paris Agreement’s lower limit or 1.5°C target is now certain. “The new scenarios show that it is technically possible to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, due to continued delays in deep emissions reductions, 1.5°C pathways now indicate a higher temporary overshoot of this temperature target. The magnitude and duration of this overshoot should be limited as much as possible. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure. This could result in greater harms to people and ecosystems, higher adaptation There is heavy reliance on carbon dioxide (CO2) removal,” the report said.
Additionally, the Global Tipping Points report 2025 from international partners including the University of Exeter and Stockholm Resilience Center found that widespread die-off of warm-water coral reefs is occurring now as the world reaches its first climate tipping point. Forest is also an important issue. COP30 host Brazil officially launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility at the COP30 Leaders Summit on Thursday. The TFFF is an initiative that encourages the conservation and expansion of tropical forests by making annual payments to tropical forest countries that maintain their permanent forests. India will join the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), Brazil’s global initiative to curb deforestation, as an “observer”, India’s Ambassador to Brazil Dinesh Bhatia said in his statement on the second day of the Belem Leaders Summit on Friday.
“The Amazon symbolizes the truth that awaits us in Belém: the future of humanity and the health of the planet are inseparable. The forest is not a distant frontier; it is a living center of the global climate system, the beating heart of hydrological cycles, and the guardian of the world’s carbon balance. If the Amazon exceeds its tipping point, the planet will struggle to restore balance, Lago has said.
