Donald Trump’s declaration in his inaugural address on Monday that “America’s golden age begins now,” may align with his campaign promise to Make America Great Again (MAGA). Perhaps this signals an extension of their MAGA slogan. Where MAGA focuses on reclaiming a perceived lost greatness through economic nationalism, deregulation, and an “America First” foreign policy, the “Golden Age”, however boastful, may also mean a forward-looking promise of prosperity and strength. But it also signals a new sense of optimism that bears the burden of delivering concrete results in a deeply polarized nation.
Why is China important
Trump also pledged to be a “peacemaker and unifier”, which dovetailed well with his anti-war stance. But to make America great again or usher in a “Golden Age of America,” Trump will need more than just slogans. Common sense says they will need to focus on economic recovery, geopolitical stability and continuing deepening domestic divisions to achieve their goal. But one area is most important: the management of the US-China relationship, the most important bilateral relationship in the world at the moment. The geopolitical reality is that there is no other country that poses a greater threat to US global dominance than China, both now and in the years to come.
Following Trump’s victory, there has been a flood of analyzes in Western media and think tank circles, many of which predict the beginning of a second Cold War or the collapse of the Chinese economy. Still, the fact remains that while Trump pledged in his election campaign to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, after his inauguration, he said he was considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese-made goods. Are. This may come into effect from February 1. So, while the West unnecessarily and endlessly repeats the rhetoric of Donald Trump’s first term portraying him as China’s eternal nemesis, the reality may be different this time. Let’s not ignore Trump’s positive gestures toward China and its president in recent days. He went out of his way to invite Chinese President Xi Jinping as a special guest at his inauguration ceremony and, before the spectacle, even had a phone conversation between the two leaders. He certainly couldn’t be there to discuss the weather.
All this suggests that the two leaders can still hold talks.
Trump chose balance
The new US President also came out in favor of Chinese-owned app TikTok and promised to delay implementing the US ban; He has also promised to find a US buyer, suggesting a 50% buyout. This comes nearly five years after Trump himself tried to ban the short-video-sharing platform. There was a brief darkness in America this weekend but it was restored after Trump’s assurance.
While signing executive orders on his first day in office, Trump shared his satisfaction over his recent phone call with Xi, saying it was “very good”. And although Xi himself did not attend the inauguration ceremony, he sent Vice President Han Zheng to attend the swearing-in ceremony. Hahn seems to have had a more productive time in Washington than most pundits. He didn’t waste a moment meeting with Tesla’s Elon Musk, who reiterated his commitment to invest more in China. The Chinese vice president also sat down with a group of American business leaders, and gave them the classic Chinese pitch: Keep those investments flowing, guys.
Trump promised to announce tariffs of 10% on imports from all countries, 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico and 60% on Chinese imports on his first day in the White House. However, these things were mentioned only in general terms in his inaugural speech. There is no doubt that Trump’s return has created a sense of uncertainty, but does it make sense to focus on tariffs, especially with respect to China?
Who is the real slave, Biden or Trump?
Contrary to popular belief, Trump was the biggest hawk to China — his administration imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, blacklisted tech companies like Huawei, and carried out at least a handful of other measures directly targeting the country. Issued at least eight executive orders – the reality is that Joe Biden was very strict. While Trump’s approach was often forceful and unilateral, Biden’s strategy was quieter but far more detailed and coordinated, indicating a long-term containment plan rather than a short-term trade skirmish.
Biden didn’t inherit Trump-era tariffs, he doubled them. They not only retained most of Trump’s tariffs, but also expanded the list of items subject to higher tariffs. Last year, they imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese green buses and electric vehicles, aimed at countering China’s push for global dominance in the renewable energy sector. Additionally, he tightened export controls on semiconductors and chip-making technologies, effectively isolating China from critical components needed for its technology sector. This was coupled with sanctions targeting Chinese military advances, particularly companies involved in AI and quantum computing.
Biden became a complete attacker on China
Biden went global with his anti-China strategy. He rallied his friends and partners to put pressure on Beijing. Under his administration, the US strengthened QUAD (a strategic grouping of the US, Japan, India and Australia) and shifted its focus to countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Biden also welcomed India with unprecedented enthusiasm, offering military deals, economic partnerships and support on global forums to further pull New Delhi into Washington’s orbit. He also paid a state visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a rare occurrence in Washington.
That was not all. Biden strengthened NATO’s focus on China, a significant shift for the transatlantic alliance originally focused on Russia. Under his leadership, NATO for the first time recognized China as a systemic challenge in its official documents, indicating a broader geopolitical pivot. Additionally, Biden formed a coalition of nations to block Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE from critical infrastructure projects, especially 5G networks. On the economic front, his administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which aimed to offer an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. By working closely with ASEAN countries, South Korea and Japan, Biden sought to reduce regional dependence on Chinese trade and investment while increasing American influence.
Trade War or Trade Tango?
Even though there is some merit in the West’s fear of a second ‘Cold War’ under Trump’s leadership, it will not be a one-sided affair. Let us not forget that Beijing is busy laying the groundwork to ensure that American companies remain connected to China’s huge market. This time, it appears that China is ready for anything the US throws at it, be it the trade game or the trade tango.
In preparation for any potential economic storm resulting from Trump’s tariffs, China has been quietly and strategically diversifying its trade and investment networks. Their efforts span continents, trade blocs, and major partnerships, creating a strong web of economic ties that could blunt any future US pressure.
friends in different places
Consider China’s deepening ties with ASEAN. As one of the 17 dialogue partners of the ASEAN Regional Forum, China has ensured that its economic ties in the region are both broad and deep. Together, they established the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, which is currently being upgraded to cover more areas. The results are staggering: in 2023 alone, China-ASEAN trade volume increased to $911.7 billion. For four consecutive years, China and ASEAN have been each other’s largest trading partners – a testament to the strength and importance of this partnership. In 2024, China’s trade surplus will reach nearly $1 trillion, and a third of it will come from trade with the US (as of last year, the US was the world’s largest economy with a GDP of just under $29 trillion). China maintains the position as the second largest with a GDP of approximately $18.5 trillion.
China has also been a driving force behind the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), one of the largest free trade agreements in history. Effective from January 2022, RCEP unites 15 Asia-Pacific countries including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and 10 ASEAN countries. Collectively, members of this powerhouse group account for 30% of global GDP. It aims to eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods in 20 years, streamlining trade flows and creating unprecedented market access. If Trump’s tariffs are a hammer, RCEP is China’s sledgehammer.
China’s engagement with the Arab world has been similarly calculated. By further strengthening ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Beijing has emerged as the largest trading partner for many Arab countries. Trade between China and the Arab world is expected to grow from a modest $36.7 billion in 2004 to $431.4 billion in 2022. Chinese investment in the Middle East has also increased, targeting manufacturing, energy and infrastructure. The region, long dominated by the US, is increasingly looking east.
Even further, China has expanded its economic footprint in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Beijing has so far injected more than $138 billion in loans into the region, providing a significant boost to developing economies. According to the latest data (2021), China’s trade with LAC stood at $445 billion. For many LAC countries, Beijing is not just a trading partner but an indispensable ally in development.
in for the long game
Closer to home, China’s engagement with India reflects its diplomatic pragmatism. Xi’s meeting with Modi at the last BRICS summit led to a thaw in India-China ties, leading to a reduction in military tensions and promises of expanded trade. And, in Australia, the visit of Premier Li Qiang in mid-2024 has revived Sino-Australian relations. These are the two key Quad members with whom China has managed to improve relations, which is a testament to its magnetic attraction.
All this highlights Beijing’s unpreparedness to respond to external shocks. Trump may threaten tariffs, but China will not stand still. It has prepared itself well to play the long game. What’s more, even as analysts focus on the confrontational aspects of US-China relations, there remain signs of mutual recognition and goodwill.
The real question is not whether Trump will stick to his campaign rhetoric or tone it down in the face of reality — it is whether the US is prepared for a trade war with a China that is far stronger and more resilient than it was four years ago. Is.
So, perhaps it is time for the West to think again. Trump’s stance on China is no longer a one-dimensional story of arrogance and arrogance. His outreach to Xi — whether strategic, self-serving, or both — suggests he is playing a more complex game. If anything, the post-inauguration scenario shows that Trump talks tough, but he may leave a door open for negotiation.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
