WASHINGTON—President Trump said Tuesday he has canceled all meetings with Iran’s leaders, urged Iranians protesting their government to overthrow the regime and declared that “help is on the way.”
Just three days later, Trump indicated that there would be no imminent attack on Iran. The US president, who had led the country to the brink of war, appeared to be holding back from military intervention unless Tehran killed more protesters.
The pause was the culmination of nearly a week of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, during which America’s regional allies warned Trump that the bombing campaign could lead to a wider conflict and senior US military officials ready for strike orders The Wednesday that never came.
The prospect of an attack less than two weeks after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro unsettled leaders in capitals around the world, who fear Trump’s penchant for quick airstrikes could spark another protracted conflict in the Middle East if he fails to oust the Iranian regime.
The US is sending an aircraft-carrier strike group, additional jet fighters and missile defense to the region, a sign that bombs could also fall soon after their arrival. But when reporters asked on Friday whether US aid was still being delivered to protesters as promised, Trump said he had decided not to order the strike alone.
He said, “Nobody convinced me. I convinced myself.” “They didn’t execute anybody. They canceled executions. It had a big impact.”
Trump’s repeated posts on social media in support of the protesters sparked a guessing game over whether he would consider attacking Iran again. Last June, he vowed to give Iran two weeks to negotiate over its nuclear program – before attacking the country before that deadline expired. When he made the original deadline he had already decided to send B-2 bombers and a cruise-missile-carrying submarine to attack three Iranian nuclear sites, leading some to suspect a similar move this time around.
Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in a single operation was a much less challenging mission than using force to force an authoritarian regime in Tehran to pay attention to its restive population or even assume power.
Trump was given advice Scary possibilities of change of powerThe Wall Street Journal reported, despite America’s repeated requests Will support what some call the New Iranian Revolution. Now critics fear for the fate of the protesters who were energized by Trump’s call to action.
“They put American credibility at stake,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. “There will be, and already has been, a sense of betrayal and reaction from the Iranians that will last beyond the lifetime of this presidency.”
While the White House is insisting that Trump has not yet made a final decision on attacking Iran, the criticism Trump offered echoes criticism from decades ago when then-President George H.W. Bush encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Saddam Hussein but chose to stay out of the country’s internal conflict when they rose up against the Shia dictator in the wake of the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt said in a statement on Friday that no one except the President knows what Trump will ultimately decide. “He is keeping his options open and will make decisions that are in the best interests of America and the world,” he said.
Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in late December and the Israeli leader was concerned about Iran Attempt to rebuild its missile powerWhich was destroyed by Israeli air strikes. Senior US officials familiar with the conversations said that at the time, demonstrations were growing in Iran and Netanyahu said the Iranian regime could suppress the protests with violence. Trump asked his aides about the unrest and asked if the US could do anything.
On January 2, Trump used the threat of US military action to try to persuade Tehran to stop shooting at protesters or killing them. “We are locked in and ready and ready to go,” Trump posted on social media. It was a message he delivered several times online and in comments to reporters.
In fact, the President had set a red line. The question was how he could implement it.
As the protests grew – fueled by economic crisis, state repression and statements of US support – so did Tehran’s anger. Activists and human rights groups said at least 2,000 people were killed in just a few days, although observers remain skeptical. actual casualty toll It’s too much.
“The speed and brutality with which Iran responded is something we have never seen before,” said Ali Waze, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. He said that before the US was ready to bomb Iran, the regime might have a “perverse incentive” to crush the movement even more quickly and brutally.
During the week Iranian diplomats tried to persuade the US not to attack their country and instead restart nuclear talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in the Swiss resort of Davos in hopes of holding a meeting with US special envoy Steve Witkoff ahead of the start of next week’s World Economic Forum, Arab and European officials said. The meeting was never finalized.
US and military officials were already preparing options for the president to respond to Iran’s crackdown on dissent, and were receiving informal briefings from top aides such as Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
On Tuesday, Trump was scheduled to meet with top officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Kaine, to review some of the plans, but he skipped the session and detailed his views once again on social media.
“Iranian patriots, keep protesting—occupy your institutions!!!” He posted. “getting help“
Later that evening in a CBS News interview, Trump said he was unable to get reliable numbers about how many people the Iranian regime had killed during the crackdown. But if Tehran hangs protesters, “we will take very strong action,” he said.
Brookings’ Maloney said Trump’s tough statements “certainly increased the sense of possibility among Iranians”, even if US support has not been a major factor in bringing Iranians to the streets, due to their long-standing suspicion of Washington.
Trump was there on Tuesday evening inclined to order an attack and directed the Pentagon to prepare for an attack on Iran, US officials said. American military officers went to sleep that night expecting the President to give final orders for the attack the next day. Early on Wednesday, the US military evacuated some personnel from Al Udeid air base in Qatar, which is home to US aircraft and the main US air combat command center in the region.
But Trump was listening to alternative viewpoints. US officials said the US could not be confident of overthrowing the regime with a quick flurry of airstrikes alone, and it was unclear whether bombing Iranian military and civilian sites would help quell the rebellion and weaken the government. Aides told the President that the United States did not even have the military assets necessary to launch large and sustained attacks in the region that could strain the regime and protect U.S. forces and allies in the Middle East.
US officials said officials from Israel and Arab countries also told Washington that the time was not right for the attack. Middle Eastern leaders said that the situation in Iran was very volatile, and that protests had already been largely suppressed due to the regime’s heavy-handed crackdown. Also, it was unclear who would lead the opposition if Tehran’s government somehow fell due to American air power.
Iran’s national security adviser Ali Larijani and other officials on Wednesday lobbied regional countries, including the Gulf monarchies, Iraq and Turkey, to pressure Trump to step down, according to Arab officials. In a series of “bullet points”, Iranian officials said Persian Gulf countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia would face retaliation against US bases they host if Iran was attacked, Arab officials said.
By Wednesday afternoon, Trump’s message about the need for the strike appeared to be changing. He told reporters at the White House that Iran had informed the administration that the killing of protesters had stopped, though he did not say who had sent the message. “There are no plans to hang,” he said. “I’ve been told this on good authority.” Trump further reiterated the Iranian point that protesters were also firing at regime officials.
Top Iranian diplomat Araghchi claimed in a Fox News interview that evening that the regime would stop killing and executing protesters.
US officials said Trump would speak to Netanyahu by telephone on Wednesday evening. The Israeli leader reiterated that the US should not attack Iran at this time, as there were questions about whether the bombings were coming too late to help the protesters. Israel will certainly need a better-positioned US military to help defend the country from Iranian retaliation.
Still, the US was sending more military assets toward Iran on Thursday, a sign that Trump may consider striking again. White House Press Secretary Leavitt told reporters that the President’s stance remains the same: “If the killing continues, there will be serious consequences.” However, he said the administration was pleased that Iran had committed not to execute 800 people. Levitt did not say where this figure came from.
By Friday morning, Trump was also pleased with Iran’s announcement that there would be no more executions, and toned down his rhetoric. “I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled executions…have been canceled by Iran’s leadership. Thank you!”
Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham also adjusted his tone after spending weeks openly pushing for a massive strike. The South Carolina Republican, who earlier this week compared Iran’s regime to the Nazis and called for stopping its repression by “any means necessary,” wrote on Friday that Trump’s claim that averting a plan for 800 executions was a significant accomplishment. “Hopefully, people won’t have to live under this regime and danger forever.”
Write to Lara Seligman lara.seligman@wsj.comin alexander ward alex.ward@wsj.comMichael R. gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com and on Benoit Faucon benoit.faucon@wsj.com
