Thiruvananthapuram: As dawn breaks, you see it looming on the horizon. On the 600-plus kilometer winding highway connecting Manjeshwaram, the northernmost constituency Kerala From the border of the Konkan region of Karnataka to Parasala in the south, Pinarayi Vijayan’s The face is visible big in the hoardings, with the message – Who else besides him? LDF. Every three or four kilometres, the tagline changes – better welfare, timely distribution of pension, jobs and tourism opportunities, etc. But the message is the same: there is no alternative to Vijayan Communist Party of India (Marxist) The leader is seeking a third consecutive term, a feat not achieved by any politician in Kerala since the formation of the state in 1957.
At 81, Vijayan is chasing history; And his message is “Vikasam” (Development). The CM’s fans see in the hoardings a suave “captain” who has led Kerala to the port of “prosperity” and “development” through difficult waters for a decade, including the 2018 floods and the Covid years; For his critics, the reduction of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to a single face marks the rise of a power sect defined by nepotism, nepotism, corruption and betrayal of democratic norms.
Since 2016, Vijayan has risen to the top CPI(M)The traditional balance between the party and the government is being disturbed. With the disappearance of VS Achuthanandan after the 2016 elections, there is no other power center in the party except Vijayan.
In many ways, the CPI(M) and the LDF have taken a gamble by betting only on Vijayan, turning this assembly election into a referendum on his record and legacy.
This record reflects a government that has invested heavily in public infrastructure, evident in new highways, roads, luxurious offices, school buildings and hospitals, much of it financed by funds from the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board, a quasi-government body for off-budget financial assistance. Critics claim the state is falling into a debt trap, but the government is sticking to its guns by promoting mega projects like high-speed railways (K-Rail), which are facing opposition from sections of the society who fear fragmentation of assets and loss of livelihoods.
CPI(M) hopes development narrative will weigh heavily on its campaigns United Democratic Front – Congress-led opposition – and Bharatiya Janata PartyWhich highlights issues like alleged theft of gold and corruption in Sabarimala temple. CPI(M) general secretary MA Baby, who was education and culture minister from 2006 to 2011 during Achuthanandan’s tenure, said, “I believe that our government has brought about a significant change in the lives of common people through its investments in roads, inland waterways, the tunnel road connecting Wayanad to the plains.”
CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP John Brittas, who worked closely with the CM, said there was no “artist” like Vijayan. from Kerala Recent History. “He acknowledged that Kerala has made gains on the social development front but has lagged behind in creating world-class infrastructure,” Brittas said.
There has also been a conceptual change in the attitude of the Vijayan government towards private capital. TI Madhusudhanan, who is contesting the election for the third time as MLA from CPI(M) stronghold Payyannur, stressed that the party has to change with time or face irrelevance. He argues that CPI(M) support for entrepreneurs and big projects is necessary to address the concerns of the youth, who now migrate for ambitious jobs in IT and manufacturing. The CPI(M) had supported the government’s pro-capital stance in its “Nava (New) Kerala” document at the party congress last year. In Kerala: India’s Miracle State, economic historians Tirthankar Ray and K. Ravi Raman write, “Two decades into the new millennium, the state was one of the harbingers of the country’s post-liberalization growth resurgence… By 2022, it represented another anomaly – a Marxist state presiding over a strong capitalist resurgence. Its income growth has been consistent and well above the national average since 2000.”
This new wealth has clearly changed the way of spending, which is evident in the large number of malls, shops selling exclusive and branded goods, everything from coffee shops to pastry shops and even in social attitudes even in small towns. A new middle class has emerged, which is entrepreneurial in nature, replacing the old dominant class consisting of government employees, teachers, etc. This social change has significantly weakened the bargaining power of the working class, especially those in the informal sector, and damaged the party’s relationship with the cultural left. The perceived lack of democracy increased by overcentralization of governance in the Chief Minister’s office and the police has contributed to anti-Vijayan sentiment.
Public intellectual and Kerala Sahitya Akademi president K Satchidanandan lamented that the government and the CPI(M) have focused only on catering to the needs of this specific new class and have ignored the rise of the BJP, communal polarization and Islamophobia in the state. “No one is against development, but we have to ask whose development is taking place,” he said.
Is the Left changing its class interests?
Refusal to support the government ASHA workerA significant workforce in the healthcare sector, which went on strike demanding higher wages, was interpreted by many as evidence of the CPM’s new class interests.
Furthermore, its record on civil liberties – for example the increase in encounters – has created discontent among the broader leftist constituency, influencing voter choice. The unexpected defeat of the LDF in the recent local body elections – the UDF had a lead of 1.1 million votes over the LDF – suggested that rising economic inequality despite rising incomes could become an electoral factor. In short, the political ground has changed significantly since the 2021 elections, which the LDF won with 99 (out of 140) seats.
There are two other undercurrents that could undermine Vijayan’s bid for office. One, the possible consolidation of minorities against the CPI(M); And two, the rise of BJP as the first choice of many Hindus in the state. Communist parties have been the legacy of the social reform movement in the region and have built their base through the mobilization of the poor and the working class. But its cadre has been mostly Hindu, constituting about 54% of the state’s population. Anecdotal evidence suggests a shift in this vote – initially upper caste Hindus, and now, the party’s traditional backbone, the Other Backward Class Ezhava community – are leaning towards the rising BJP.
The CPI(M) leadership has tried to reverse the situation by adopting political language that alienates Muslims. The remarkable success in the 2016 elections was clearly due to significant Muslim support as well as focused government intervention during the 2018 floods and the Covid pandemic in the years that followed. He may be missing in this election, which could affect the party’s prospects, especially in the northern districts.
However, the CPI(M) hopes that any Muslim mobilization could trigger a counter-mobilisation in favor of the LDF in the southern districts: the Muslim League is the second largest component in the UDF and there is a narrative that Muslims benefit more under Congress rule.
Congress national spokesperson Shama Mohammed said, “This is just a polarizing argument. The UDF works for all Malayalees, works for the development of communities in Kerala irrespective of gender, caste, faith and class.” The Social Democratic Party of India, seen as a radical organisation, is supporting the UDF in some constituencies.
There is one statistic that may be reassuring for the LDF. Since the delimitation of constituencies in 2008, the LDF has won 59 seats in three consecutive elections. The UDF has only 30 such “assured seats”. This and the short time for campaigning may be the reason why the LDF has repeated almost all its sitting MLAs, who need no introduction in their constituencies, and according to party insiders, remain popular. The UDF got only three weeks to introduce its candidates, many of whom were new, to the voters: elections were declared on 15 March and votes were declared in Kerala on 9 April.
For CPI(M), this election is a do-or-die fight. If defeated, the party will not have a single state government for the first time in nearly 50 years. The current leadership and its choices will come under scrutiny from restive sections in the party: there has been an unprecedented flow of lower-level functionaries and at least six former MLAs to other parties, indicating a collapse of old forms of political allegiance and communist loyalty as well as organizational stagnation. A third victory will change the political character of the Left and the state, with serious consequences for the Congress.
