The world has entered the period of geopolitical uncertainty and confusion with the introduction of Donald Trump’s second presidential. West is no longer present, the United States (US) has returned its European allies and decided to rely on Moscow rather than Brussels. The European Union (EU) is particularly declared an opponent by Washington. In view of these developments, the Sangh and its member states will have to come up with a strategy to protect their global interests. This involves reviewing existing relations with other international partners and strengthening the current partnership – especially with India.
Already in December, he had made it clear to take over in December, European Commission (EC) chairman Ursula von Der Leyen that India was in its sites, possibly realizing the way the world was about changing. And in fact, after starting his new mandate as the Chairman of EC, his first bilateral journey is in India on 27 and 28 February, as well as almost full college of European Union Union-coopers-one others first.
The importance of this journey can hardly be underestimated. Can not be opposite with the last ten years. In the world before January 20, 2025, the European Union and India saw each other as important partners, who cooperated in a very large variety domains, but most of the conversations between them took place at the bureaucracy level. While India made some efforts to join the Sangh at the political level, especially since 2016, the subsequent political leadership has had a passive attitude in this relationship.
The member states of the European Union cannot be said to be the same, whose heads of the state and government, as well as ministers, are going to New Delhi regularly.
India goes to see the world as dominance of the US-China-Russia-Triangle in geopolitical terms. This keeps itself in position in relation to the development of the relative powers of these three actors, as viewed through the prism of their own interests. This foreign policy philosophy is called ‘strategic autonomy’ by New Delhi. Where does the European Union fits in all this world vision? While the argument for this increased European Union for India is clear from an European point of view, one must ask the question whether New Delhi needs a close relationship with the Sangh. Does India see the European Union as a possible alternative global partner in this new transaction-trump-world-in a world where it can be correct?
There is no reason for the Russia-India relationship to change the course. It is based on solid realities for both sides such as Russian oil-export India and India’s dependence on Russian military hardware. Prime Minister Modi’s first bilateral visit was in Moscow, after starting his third mandate. Business Minister Piyush Goyal met his Russian counterpart on the margins of a BRICS to discuss ways to increase bilateral trade in 2024. India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Dowal met President Vladimir Putin in September 2024. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh visited Moscow for the 21st meeting of the Indo-Russia Inter-Government Commission on military and military technical cooperation in December 2024.
Conversely, reducing US-Russia relations will remove some pressure on India about its neutral position on the purchase of Russian oil or its neutral position on the Ukraine War. It can eventually reduce Russian dependence on China-a factor that has always worried New Delhi.
The relations between India and China began to rest in the second half of 2024, after being frozen by New Delhi for four years. While India has a solid trade deficit with China and clearly requires Chinese significant supply for its manufacturing sector, a reality that was recognized by the Economic Survey 24-25 (published by the Ministry of Finance), China has decided in 2024 that it was better to reduce its aggressive military currency along the line of real control (in Ladakh and other places), perhaps in view of a possible provisions. The exemption of its relationship with New Delhi can also reduce Indian needs through its quad partners-US, Australia and Japan.
Unknown factor definitely intends to do or what Trump China.
At the moment, New Delhi is trying to know how much imports Trump gives India’s importance.
At the bilateral level, signs are confident to India. Foreign Minister Jaishankar attended a meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers the next day after President Trump attended the swearing -in ceremony of President Trump on 20 January and was bilateral with State Secretary Marco Rubio. This was followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington on February 11 and 12, during which Trump “emphasized the importance of India to extend the purchase of American-made security equipment and move towards a fair bilateral trading relations”. Both Modi and Trump emphasized their commitment to pursue the US-India Strategic Partnership and the Indo-Pacific Quad Partnership, India hosted quad leaders for the first time this year “, the closing statement said.
It is not yet clear how the Washington Cwad looks at the future, the quadrilateral security dialogue that was revived during Donald Trump’s first presidential post in 2017. The next day of the inauguration of President Trump, a quad meeting of ministers of foreign affairs was held in Washington, and its closing statement repeats most of the earlier quad declarations about Indo-Pacific, such as the importance of maintaining international laws, democratic values, sovereignty and regional integrity. The next Quad Leaders Summit will be held in India.
The general view in New Delhi is that India does not have much to fear new distribution in Washington. While Delhi is expected and already American has felt the pressure in the field of foreign trade and immigration, New Delhi feels that India’s geographical situation is such that Washington will continue to see India as an important partner in Indo-Pacific and will be a possible counterweight for China.
On the other hand, India needs America in the field of foreign trade and technology, and the US is definitely ready to oblige.
Keeping these elements in mind, it may conclude that global changes, which are currently happening, do not offer India with difficult options. It finds itself in a relatively comfortable position.
The Commission’s proposal for the European Union has become a potentially alternative global partner for India in this new transaction Trump world-in a world where it can be right-it should be alertly interested for India. Creative connectivity with Europe for a vast country dealing with complex developmental challenges will always be of value.
However, it was already clear for some time that von deer Leyen had intended to pay more attention to India, as much as he had done during the last five years, the above journey time could not come at a more symbolic time. The recent breakdown of the transatlantic relationship has proved how much time this outreach is for India. EC’s visit to India gained additional importance, with US-Russia-China-Tribhuj in the flux. The last few weeks have shown that the European Union should strive for other important colleagues in the world as it is now clearly in a weaker state of a bhurjiti. Referring to the new geopolitical realities, the Chairman of the Commission said that it wanted to ‘next level’, with special emphasis on defense and security cooperation.
The results of traveling 27–28 February are widespread and can actually deepen the relationship. The European Union and India want to end the dialogue of the Free Trade Agreement by the end of this year. Considering the complex nature of these dialogues, this is a very ambitious goal. Trade from India’s point of view is still the main European Union-India subject. To avoid delay at the technical level, political leadership from both sides, however, must closely monitor the progress of these negotiations.
In addition, India has expressed interest in the European Union’s involvement in projects as well as involvement in the security agreement (SOIA) to be involved in the security. The leaders also committed to find out a security and defense partnership. (After CFR Leaders statement visit …, 28/02). There is no doubt that deepening the relationship will be mainly the result of concrete progress in these areas.
The merits of a strong European Union Union-India relationship are clear: he is the remaining two most powerful international actor to try for a rule-based international order. In addition, both are looking for ways to deal with the results of new American-business policies by looking for dynamic trade relations that are independent of the impact of Trump trade policies.
But, the evidence of pudding is in food-the European Union and India should be able to prove that many agreements and partnerships that already exist between them, and what they want to launch now will also make a difference for both. The actual results will have to achieve if this partnership must be more than the manifesto meaning.
A lot will now depend on the proposals of the upcoming commission for a new strategic agenda between India and the European Union. The basis for these has been set during this commission’s visit. This new agenda will eventually be discussed and it is expected that the next European Union-India summit will be adopted.
The Commission has taken the right initiative to reach India. Keeping in mind the challenges facing the European Union in the Trump II era, it would depend on the Union to prove that it can actually bring the European Union-India relationship ‘to the next level’.
This article is written by Jan Luikex, Senior Associate Fellow, Agmont Institute and former Belgian Ambassador to India.
