Cafés in bustling central London are always packed with tourists, many of whom are well-heeled people from the Arab world. Once, I found myself deep in conversation with a young Saudi architect who, in a moment of rare candor, shared his thoughts on the “Gazan massacre” that has taken place over the past year.
“We’re in trouble,” he sighed. “We young Saudis can watch Gaza being destroyed, but my country remains silent.” These are brave words from a Saudi, no doubt on foreign soil. But still, this is a country where the closest thing to freedom of speech is the freedom to agree with the king.
But what made the conversation really interesting was his perspective on Iran’s missile attack against Israel on October 1. “Iran is the only country that stands with Israel and America,” he said in praise and relief. A Sunni Saudi praising Shia Iran is the same as an Iranian praising Israel. This should give Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sleepless nights.
Two weeks ago, a massive rain of missiles rained down on Israeli skies, causing limited damage but sending shockwaves across the Muslim world. There was celebration from Jakarta to Jenin – people were cheering as if this was Israel’s final defeat. The screams, the slogans, the sheer disbelief. Never mind that Israel’s inevitable retaliation, yet to come, could be even more deadly. For them, the mere fact that someone – anyone – had the courage to defy Israel was enough. Forget logic. This was emotional catharsis at its finest.
It is not surprising that Tehran’s defiance against Israel and the US is making the Islamic Republic more popular among both the broader Shia and Sunni communities. It is important to recall the 2006 Lebanon War, when Iran’s active support of Hezbollah against Israel created a surge of support for Iran throughout the Muslim world.
Iran’s soft power
“The revolution of the Iranian people is the beginning of a revolution for the entire Islamic world.” These were the words of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who sparked the 1979 Iranian Revolution and essentially announced his intention to export Iran’s brand of Islamic revival far and wide.
While policymakers and analysts in the West focus on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its well-trained armed militias, they are in fact only skimming the surface. Certainly, the IRGC’s militia network is impressive, but it is only a part of Iran’s influence. The real thing happens behind the scenes, where Iran has built a soft-power empire across West Asia and beyond, thanks to its soft-power agencies. Under Iran’s current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has continued its policy of exporting its revolution. In fact, the export of its ideology lies in its constitution implemented after the 1979 revolution.
What Iran cannot do with Israel militarily, it is doing with its soft power. It has surrounded the Jewish state with a web of institutions deeply influenced by its ideology. It has cloned its ideology in Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Its ideological fingers also extend all over Syria and Iraq. Additionally, Tehran’s influence is growing in parts of the Gulf, with the Shia-majority country of Bahrain being a notable example. He is also trying to infiltrate into places like Afghanistan and even Palestinian areas.
And if you want to know where Iran’s revolution is spreading beyond its borders, just visit Shia-dominated Kargil in Kashmir. A life-size cutout of Khamenei outside a Shia mosque in the main city says it all.
By 2009, right in the middle of US and UN sanctions, Iran had completed nearly several hundred development projects in southern Lebanon – schools, religious centers, sports complexes, hospitals – you name it. And all of them easily spread Tehran’s Islamic ideology.
The question is why does Iran support Hamas and all Palestinians in general, even if they are Sunni who have not accepted its Shia revolution? The answer is simple. The Maulvi regime claims that it is its Islamic duty to defend the oppressed people. Supporting the oppressed and opposing the oppressors is at the core of Shia doctrine.
Shia doctrine of sacrifice
From the early years of Islam, followers were divided into Sunni and Shia sects. The former has the majority and the population of the latter is limited to West Asia, Pakistan and India. Persia had a vibrant ancient culture. After the adoption of Shia Islam, Persian pride in culture remains strong in Iran.
Urdu poet Allama Iqbal expressed the spirit of Shia martyrdom in this couplet: “Islam remains alive after every Karbala(Islam revives after every tragedy like Karbala). The Shia sentiment of martyrdom is deeply rooted in the tragedy of Karbala, where Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, and his followers were brutally killed for standing up against tyranny. This sacrifice is seen not only as a historical event, but as a timeless symbol of resistance, justice, and self-sacrifice for a higher purpose; in the Shia faith, martyrdom is devotion and defiance against oppression. It is the final work of Irani, which encapsulates the ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Therefore, US sanctions or Israeli attacks on its infrastructure only harden the Shias’ resolve to resist and defiance. Take, for example, the Israeli campaign against Iran over the past four years, which has included sabotage and attacks on nuclear and military facilities inside Iran, on Iranian soil, and even in Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere, killing nuclear scientists and respected military. Murders of officers have been witnessed. , Yemen and elsewhere, have failed to prevent Iran or Hezbollah from harming Israeli objectives.
Israel could attack Iran and destroy its oil fields or other infrastructure in response to the October 1 attack, but it is very likely that this would only strengthen Shia resolve to launch further attacks on Israel. This could become a never-ending cycle of violence
Competition to win over Muslims
Long before the Islamic Republic of Iran began exporting its ideology, it was Saudi Arabia that was engaged in winning the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. The export of Wahhabism gained momentum during the reign of King Faisal (1964–1975) and continued under subsequent kings. Its primary purpose was to promote Wahhabism, support Muslim communities around the world, and counter Shia and Iranian influence. “The Wahhabi Mission and Saudi Arabia” by David Cummins presents the rise of the Wahhabi ideology well. Wahhabism took a radical form in some societies, giving rise to organizations like the Taliban and Al Qaeda. It was no surprise that 15 of the 19 hijackers in the 9/11 terrorist attacks were Saudi nationals.
It is ironic that the US will continue to nurture kings in Saudi Arabia. Of course, it cannot be denied that in recent years, Saudi Arabia has re-established itself as a force against extremism by embarking on reforms under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ‘Vision 2030’ Tried to do. However, critics argue that these reforms are superficial and the underlying Wahhabi ideology remains intact.
Saudi influence is decreasing
Saudi Arabia was on the verge of signing the Abraham Accords with Israel before Hamas’ deadly attack on October 7 last year. Many people in the Muslim community complain that Saudi is not doing anything for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. On the contrary, he is being accused of ignoring the Palestinian issue. Clearly, as Iran faces competition from powerful powers like Israel and the US, Saudi Arabia is losing the battle to win the hearts and minds of Muslims.
But West Asia is a complex region. Arabs, Turks and Persians are the largest ethnic or linguistic groups there. Together, they make up 90% of the region’s population. The Arab population is divided among more than 20 countries. Turks and Iranians live largely in Türkiye and Iran respectively. Most of the present-day Arab countries and the land where Israel stands today were part of the Ottoman Empire until World War I. Therefore, Türkiye’s influence in the region cannot be ignored. Turkish Muslims follow Sunni Islam but they are more moderate than the Saudi brand of Islam. Modern Türkiye, under the leadership of President Erdogan, continues to spread its cultural and political influence across the Muslim world.
Iran is very isolated
It is widely believed that due to US-imposed sanctions since 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has become isolated. There is no doubt that the sanctions have had a huge impact on its economy, but the country has still managed to create a huge missile production industry and manufacture the most modern drones. Iran has not only created its own axis of resistance in Hezbollah and the Houthis, but it has also developed good diplomatic relations with key regional players such as Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Qatar and most recently Saudi Arabia. Over the past two years, it has become part of geopolitically important multilateral forums such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). A strong anti-American sentiment has also brought Iran and Russia much closer together, which is actually a big deal for the former.
The US had an excellent relationship with Iran after it helped overthrow an elected prime minister and install a king in 1953. It continued to support the repressive rule of the Pahlavi monarchy until the Islamic Revolution replaced the dictatorial administration in 1979. In a way, America is indirectly responsible for the Islamic revolution and the Iranians oppressed under the monarchy who sought refuge in Shiism. As is its habit, the US has often supported dictators and anti-democratic leaders in West Asia. The military dictatorships in Egypt and the monarchies in Saudi Arabia and Jordan remain dependent on the American security umbrella. Perhaps there is a need to reset the West Asia policy. But there are still people within the US Congress and Israel for whom any rapprochement with Iran would be tantamount to blasphemy.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
