As the war in West Asia continues into its fourth week, European leaders have reached a consensus: not to get involved militarily. On 16 March, following a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, most European leaders said a resounding ‘no’ Iran to join the war.
On 18 March, during his address to the Bundestag (German parliament), Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Germany would not participate. America-Israel war against Iran.
Iran-Israel war update March 25, 2026
“To date, there are no concrete plans on how this operation could succeed. Washington has not consulted us and does not consider European assistance necessary,” Mr Merz said.
This is a far cry from the early days of the war when Germany, France and Britain issued a joint statement blaming Iran for its “reckless attacks.” Mr Merz even said that international law does not apply in Iran’s case. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who have blamed Iran for the conflict, have been more measured in their statements recently.
The change in attitude since then is noticeable US President Donald TrumpAppeal for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz, which has since been effectively closed The war started on 28 February. About a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the strait.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been the only European leader not to change his stance. A tweet from Mr. Sanchez on February 28 read, “We reject unilateral military action by the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order.”
Dr. Lynn Seeley, head of the Europe Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said, “The positions of EU member states in the current conflict are varying considerably. Because of their different historical relations with Israel, members have different stances. Germany has a special relationship with Israel, given its history. This is also reflected towards Iran.” According to him, even during the Iraq War in 2003, there were dramatic divisions within EU member states.
Ms Celle said, “On Iran, there are different shades of viewpoint, but they are not fundamentally different. After the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting (on March 16), there is a developing solidarity among member states. Across the EU, there is no appetite for military support for this war.”
Impact on Ukraine
Dr. Markus Löwe, economist and coordinator of research on the Middle East and North Africa at the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), said a large number of Germans view the war as a violation of international law. A recent March 5 nationwide poll showed that 58% of German respondents considered the war unjust.
“The only reason Germany does not actively oppose US-Israeli actions is the fear of doing anything against the will of the US government. Germany is worried that rejecting the US would lead it to withdraw support from Ukraine. But Germany also depends too heavily on the US for its defence,” Mr Lowe said.
On March 4, when Mr Merz met Mr Trump at the White House, he said this Germany was just like Mr Trump On Iran’s war goals. Mr Merz’s silence sparked sharp reaction in Europe when Mr Trump threatened to impose “sanctions” on Spain. In his defence, Mr Merz said he defended the Spanish and British leaders behind the closed-door talks with Mr Trump.
“The initial German response was kind of based on pandering to the United States, and that’s now beginning to be realized given the domestic consequences of the war. High energy prices, domestic echoes of the conflict, potential cyber attacks and other fears around that. Germany is now more cautious about not getting involved in the conflict,” Ms Seeley said.
With the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing in Europe, the main priority for Germany and the EU is to ensure that the US continues to support Ukraine. The German defense chief also warned in June 2025 that Russia could expand this war to attack NATO countries by 2029.
“If Russia decides to expand its operations, Germany will be next in line after Poland,” Mr Lowe said.
This possibility is worrisome for Germany because it does not have a nuclear deterrent of its own. After the end of World War II, the US, British and French promised to defend Germany because they did not want Germany to rearm. As a result, the German military is not the strongest and has limited strategic weapons because it has always been dependent on the United States for defense, Mr. Lowe said. Even the largest US air force outside the US is located in Germany (in Ramstein), which serves as a vital logistics and command center for the US military.
“But this does not mean that Germany supports the Iran war. The base in Germany has always been treated as an extra-regional base. When Mr. Trump asked other countries to support the US in the Strait of Hormuz, the German government rejected the request,” Mr. Lowe said.
Ms Cele said, “Since military capabilities are used in the Iran conflict and the Middle East region, there is less possibility of sending military aid to Ukraine. This is a concrete consequence of the Iran conflict. There is also a fear of political fallout.”
When on March 13 Mr Trump announces 30-day grace period for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products, this led to immediate criticism from Europe. “The US unilateral decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports is very worrying, as it affects European security. Weakening sanctions increases Russian resources to wage an aggressive war against Ukraine,” European Council President Antonio Costa said on Twitter.
The Brent crude index rose from $62 on March 2 to $114 on March 19. The latest escalation of the war, caused by Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompted retaliatory drone attacks by Iran on oil and gas sites in neighboring Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Many analysts have warned that the attack, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could further increase global oil and gas prices.
For Germany, Europe’s largest economy, which has seen negative growth for two consecutive years, this is not ideal news.
“Germany is not directly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and its closure does not have a direct impact. But there is an immediate impact on Germany due to volatile markets,” Ms Seele said.
economic shock
“For Germany, there is only a limited set of policy options in the short term,” said Dr. Sonali Chaudhary, trade economist at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). The country faces fluctuations in international oil and gas prices because of its dependence on fossil fuel imports. If the conflict continues for a longer period, it will experience a slowdown in its economic recovery, which is already hit by trade tensions with the US and the competitiveness of its exports in global markets. “is under pressure to reduce.”
Given the current fuel price shock, DIW has revised its forecast downwards, projecting slower economic growth of 1% and higher inflation of 2.4% in Germany.
“Rising energy prices will increase inflation and increase the costs of energy-intensive industries. We have suffered from negative growth rates for the last two years, and 2026 was supposed to be the year of economic recovery. I don’t see that happening if the war drags on,” Mr Lowe said.
Ms Choudhary also expects the German economy to take a longer time to recover. “A significant portion of households’ consumption expenditure is on fuel. Therefore, shocks in fuel prices have significant distributional impacts and can exacerbate economic inequality. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz also has implications for food security, with one third of the maritime fertilizer trade using this route,” Ms Choudhary said.
DGAP’s Ms Cele thinks it is too early to talk about an economic recovery and rising energy costs could impact it.
Germany is already seeing surges at petrol pumps, forcing the German government to adopt the so-called Austrian model, which limits price increases at pumps to just once a day.
“It highlights the lack of competition within the sector in Germany, where a few businesses control the entire value chain, from running refineries to operating petrol stations,” Ms Choudhury said.
The energy shock will reverberate across Europe. Europe’s gas storage levels are currently below 30%, a five-year low, according to a report by the Atlantic Council. They hope to reach 90% by November. With Qatar’s LNG supplies effectively shut down and Europe’s rejection of Russian energy sources, this will mean that Europe will have to look for alternatives which could translate into higher prices.
Lack of influence in Europe
According to recent statements by Ms. von der Leyen and Ms. Kallas, the Iranian regime is a threat to peace in West Asia. Neither of them has publicly called for the US and Israel to go to war, but their statements have focused on de-escalation measures and reiterated that the member states do not want to be dragged into war. These double standards have been criticized by left-wing members of the European Parliament.
Many lawmakers also allege that Ms. von der Leyen’s statements on the Iran war exceed her authority. His direct diplomacy talks with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders call for ‘credible change in Iran’ which falls within the scope of the EU Council. Under EU rules, the EU Commission and its President have no formal foreign policy role.
“Ms von der Leyen raises the question to what extent Europe can continue to defend international law all the time when others violate it. But if it is justified to violate international law when an objective is achieved, then this would set a precedent for the future,” Mr Lowe said, adding that the constantly changing objectives in the current war do not help matters. Mr Trump has failed since the start of the war to neutralize imminent threats of regime change in Iran, from dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities to destroying the Iranian navy.
“The Europeans were on the front lines of negotiating the JCPOA, where they played a constructive role. But now this is a very drastic escalation. At the moment, the Europeans are not the central actor. I hope that once the conflict ends, there will be more structured negotiations to reset the relationship in the future, and the EU can play a role in making sure that shipping routes are safe,” Ms Celle said.
Mr. Lowe agrees that Europe has little influence in the ongoing war. “What we can do is work towards stabilizing the countries of the Middle East from within, including Iran. The worst-case scenario in this conflict is instability or regime change in the Middle East leading to civil war or the fear of the new regime becoming even more extremist,” Mr Loewe said, noting that Germany and Europe could play a mediator role in the future.
As far as the economic response facing Europe is concerned, the European Central Bank has warned of inflation and economic recession if the war prolongs.
“Given the high level of uncertainty at the current level, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates steady and monitor the crisis closely to determine how severe and long-lasting the shock may be,” Ms Choudhary said.
(Nimish Sawant is a freelance journalist based in Berlin)
