Ten years have elapsed since the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) flagged the urgent need to curtail some undesirable practices among its cadre.
“There is a growing desire among some Party cadres to contest elections. They demand to contest elections in places where there is no basis to contest. When certain cadres have not been allowed to contest, they have expressed their displeasure by not working during the election. In some cases, there has been defiance of the Party decision, especially at the level of the local bodies election (sic),” read the organisational report adopted by the party’s Kolkata Plenum in December 2015.
Cut to December 2025, and the party is still ruminating over the erosion of cadre quality, having not been able to stem the rot. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) suffered a serious jolt in the just-concluded local body elections in Kerala, and a preliminary assessment by the CPI(M) attributed it, among other things, to dispirited grassroots work carried out by its cadre, which was once known for its near-flawless ‘squad work’, or door-to-door campaigning.
A senior CPI(M) leader rued that there was a reversal of roles this time when the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) showed far more diligence at the booth-level, with their election squads covering more ground methodically. For the UDF, which had been on an atypical losing streak in the local body and Assembly elections since 2015, it was a life-or-death battle, with another Assembly election around the corner. But more than their work, a combination of factors, including the Left’s fatal flaws, handed it the win. A decade in power has made the CPI(M) cadre complacent and lethargic, stuck in a rut. Add to that the ambition for plum positions: the civic elections of 2025 saw an unprecedented number of Left rebel candidates in the fray. Factionalism reared its ugly head all over again in the CPI(M) and the Communist Party of India (CPI) at the local level. That a Left-backed independent candidate drew a blank in Pattambi municipality and another candidate in Mannarkkad polled just one vote bolstered allegations of a local-level “nexus with communal forces”.
At the State secretariat meeting of the CPI(M) that took initial stock of the trouncing, an exasperated senior leader called for out-of-the-box solutions to engineer a turnaround in view of the Assembly polls. But it’s easier said than done.
Returning to power in the Kerala Assembly for an unprecedented second consecutive term in 2021, the LDF chose to shun the old guard, with the sole exception of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, for a new crop of young leaders to steer the government. The way it handled the floods of 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic played a critical role in securing it another term. But 2018 also marked an inflection point in Kerala politics when the Supreme Court’s verdict allowing women of all age groups to worship at the Sabarimala temple set off a political storm, putting the government in a fix.
The weaponisation of faith over the Sabarimala temple that spilled over to the streets was reminiscent of the anti-Communist Liberation Struggle led by religious and caste forces to overthrow the first Kerala government in the late 1950s. But the Left government took an unflinching stance, upholding the court order, which has since been put on hold subject to a review, without quite realising the faultlines at the intersection of constitutional values and the politicisation of faith. It embarked on a mission to bring in a new wave of renaissance (Navodhanam) in Kerala society and organised a women’s wall in support of gender parity. In the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the Congress and the BJP ran protection of customs at Sabarimala as their main poll plank, handing a crushing defeat to the Left. The formation was forced to change tack.
By 2021, Sabarimala was on the backburner, and the Left was re-elected with an overwhelming majority in the State Assembly polls. Statistics showed that all sections, including religious minorities which doubted the Congress’s ability to fight for them, rallied behind the Left Front to give it one of its most spectacular electoral wins in the State. But a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since.
Right from 2016, when the first LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan assumed office, the challenge before the administration was to address the crisis of the Kerala Model. While being singularly responsible for the State’s stupendous achievements in the social sectors, the model had come under attack for giving a short shrift to production and employment generation. The government chose to evolve a whole new development paradigm by plugging the infrastructure gap and driving growth without shelving welfarism. With the Centre choking federal funds, an alternative source of funding was devised through a body corporate, the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board (KIIFB), which became an eyesore for the Centre very soon. Increasing tensions between the State and the Centre, often through the office of the Governor, have marked the term of the second LDF government headed by Pinarayi Vijayan. With the Congress largely steeped in resolving its internal issues, it appeared that the Left Front would have a cakewalk in the 2026 Assembly elections. However, it looks like a tall order now.
In Kerala, local body elections are political in nature, and history suggests that the pattern of voting in these elections is indicative of the way the political wind is blowing. The recent local body elections were, therefore, counted as a referendum on the government and a forerunner to the Assembly polls three months from now.
A month ahead of the civic polls, in November, the Kerala government sought to create a dominant poll narrative by announcing the State to be free of extreme poverty. It was the culmination of a painstaking programme conducted over four years to lift over 64,000 families out of extreme poverty, with tailor-made plans for each of these families. However, a storm had broken even before that. The CPI, the second-largest constituent of the ruling formation, had taken umbrage at the government’s action of unilaterally signing up for the PM-SHRI (Prime Minister’s Schools for Rising India) scheme, which the government had opposed for a long time for its link with the ‘saffronised’ National Education Policy of 2020. At one point, the row looked powerful enough to split the alliance. The CPI(M), which holds the general education portfolio, contended that the pact was signed for availing of withheld federal funds, but the CPI held its ground and compelled the government to backtrack.
It was no secret that the style of functioning of Pinarayi Vijayan was anathema to a section of CPI leaders, and the crisis over PM-SHRI lent itself to conjectures and a feeling of a deep schism within the ruling front.
There were other missteps, too. Over the last few years, as the BJP gradually increased its influence and clout in the State, the CPI(M) noticed that sections of its traditional constituency, comprising Hindu OBCs, were slowly drifting away. While the alliance with the Kerala Congress(M) fetched the Left Front Catholic Christian votes in 2021, the clergy began to show hostility over a gamut of issues soon after. A few months before the civic polls, Catholic institutions had a run-in with the government after General Education Minister V. Sivankutty accused some aided school managers of trying to sabotage reservation for the differently abled. Among the other issues that pitted Christians, who form a significant chunk of the settler-farmer community, against the government was the rising human-animal conflicts along forest fringes. While all these issues were subsequently addressed by the Left Front at the instance of the KC(M), it appears the community could not be placated, going by the civic poll results. Among the districts that voted heavily in favour of the UDF were Kottayam, Ernakulam and Idukki, where Christian voters are critical. The KC(M) was only able to secure a win for 243 of their 1,026 candidates, a sharp fall from over 500 seats in 2020. In contrast, the Kerala Congress led by P.J. Joseph, a UDF partner, contested from 650 seats, winning 332 of them.
Over the last few years, the LDF has realised that Muslims as a secular political class have been gravitating towards the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), with the radical sections closing ranks with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and the Welfare Party of India (WPI). The CPI(M) has lately been increasingly wrangling with the IUML and the Congress for having a tacit electoral understanding with the Jamaat-e-Islami-run WPI. This, poll pundits say, caused a consolidation of Muslim votes in support of the UDF in Malappuram, where the Left faced a rout in the civic polls.
The Global Ayyappa Sangamam was seen by many as a move to appease Hindus ahead of the polls. The photo shows Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan greeting Tamil Nadu IT Minister Palanivel Thiaga Rajan at the meet in Pampa.
| Photo Credit:
Leju Kamal
The Left tried to overcome the challenge posed by these two communities by fielding independent candidates in Central Kerala and Malappuram with little success.
One much-discussed chapter in the Left’s recent efforts to woo back the Hindu community was holding a Global Ayyappa Sangamam, seen by many as open appeasement. Some observers see this as the CPI(M) dithering over its commitment to secular values. Close on the heels of the venture, the Sabarimala temple opened for its seasonal pooja amid a chaotic environment. Just when the dust settled on that, a massive row came over an alleged appropriation of gold from the door frame and sculpture casings at the temple, leading to a High Court-monitored probe. The CPI feels that the arrest of two CPI(M) leaders, former TDB officials, in connection with the alleged gold theft influenced the voters. The CPI(M), however, doesn’t believe so, but some leaders feel that the party should have acted against these leaders after their arrest.
An enduring image of Pinarayi Vijayan arriving for the Ayyappa Sangamam with Vellapally Natesan, General Secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, a caste organisation representing members of the Ezhava community, drew sharp criticism from Left sympathisers and secularists. Natesan had led the Navodhana Samithi (Renaissance Committee) in the aftermath of the Sabarimala protests at Pinarayi Vijayan’s behest. More recently, Pinarayi Vijayan honoured Natesan before a massive crowd in Alappuzha, likening him to the iconic Malayalam poet Kumaran Asan, who was the first General Secretary of the SNDP Yogam. Many Left sympathisers balked at the comparison, as Natesan has been known for communally charged remarks targeting the Muslim community. Interestingly, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a political party launched by members of the SNDP and led by Natesan’s son, Tushar Vellapally, is a constituent of the NDA.
Closer to the polling dates of December 9 and 11, the verdict in the 2017 actor assault case in which actor Dileep was acquitted and the rape cases against Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkootathil, who was removed from the Congress after a court rejected his bail application, dominated the discussions, eclipsing all issues of development and progress. Many see this as a failure on the part of the Left in piecing together a cogent election narrative. But the results in Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam (minus the municipal corporations), the rural areas of Alappuzha, Thrissur, Kozhikode and Kannur show it has some fight left.
The UDF, which secured a thumping win in four of the six municipal corporations and a vast majority of urban and rural local bodies, rode on a wave of anti-incumbency. A consolidation of anti-Left votes is believed to have favoured it in the Central Travancore region and in Malappuram. The UDF campaign hinged almost entirely on the Sabarimala gold scandal. At the time of writing, a political parody of an Ayyappa devotional song targeting the CPI(M) that had gone viral during electioneering is at the centre of discussions, as a case has been registered against the songwriter for “hurting religious sentiments”.
Upbeat over the results, the UDF decided to expand its base by adding the All India Trinamool Congress (Kerala unit), led by P.V. Anvar, and the Janadhipathya Rashtriya Party led by C.K. Janu, into its fold as associate members. Anvar had been waiting for a call for some time after being cut to size. The KC(M) has put a lid on assumptions that it will be jumping ship.
BJP workers celebrate victory in Thiruvananthapuram corporation election at the party State headquarters.
| Photo Credit:
Nirmal Harindran
The civic polls helped the BJP gain national attention by wresting the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation from the LDF, which had held it for 45 years. While the LDF recorded a higher vote share, it won only about half the number of wards the NDA did, demonstrating the NDA’s deft election engineering. The NDA made a mark across urban local bodies, posting noticeable wins in all six municipal corporations, though it ceded the Pandalam municipality, which has an umbilical connection with the Sabarimala temple, to the LDF. Despite severe infighting, it was able to retain the Palakkad municipality. While there was a marginal drop in its vote share compared to the outcome of the 2020 local body polls, the drop is significant when viewed against the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. Nevertheless, the formation has acquired strike power and is now capable of deciding the outcome of a contest. It polled handsomely in areas like Nooranad, Punnapra, Mannar and Cherthala in Alappuzha district, an erstwhile citadel of the Left Front.
But the BJP will be racking its brains over the fact that a year after it secured its first Lok Sabha seat in Thrissur, the place has now turned its back on the party. Suresh Gopi may have held numerous corner meetings, but the people do not seem to have bought his ideas. In Kasaragod, too, the BJP’s influence waned. Its carefully crafted Christian outreach seems to have fallen through in Central Travancore and Thrissur.
The 2026 Assembly election will show if the State’s secular bipolar politics will continue to hold sway over voters or allow the BJP to queer the pitch.
This article is part of The Hindu e-book. Kerala: a model State’s paradox
