The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based leading authority on military, political and security matters, believes that the India-Pakistan military standoff in May last year, Operation Sindoor, as it is known in India, “may be the world’s longest visual-range (BVR) air-to-air encounter to date”. BVR refers to the use of aircraft to launch rockets or missiles to target distant flying objects, which are usually invisible to the naked eye.
The statement is taken from the IISS’s Military Balance 2026 report, a massive annual publication, which was released on February 24. It also presents analysis claiming that the Indian Air Force may have lost a Rafale fighter aircraft in Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2024. “Open-source imagery has confirmed the loss of a Rafale EH (augmented with advanced electronics),” it said. To be sure, India has never directly answered questions on the loss of Rafale during Operation Sindoor, and has insisted that all objectives of the operation were met.
“What exactly happened during the engagement is still uncertain. It is not clear which BVR missiles (MBDA Mica or Meteor) the Rafales were armed with, whether the Indian aircraft engaged the Pakistani aircraft, and whether their rules of engagement even allowed the Indian aircraft to engage,” it said, offering theories on the alleged loss of one aircraft.
It added, “Reports also vary on what may have caused the known loss of the Indian aircraft. The recovery of the wreckage of a China Airborne Missile Academy PL-15E (CH-AA-12 Abaddon) suggests that this long-range missile may have contributed to the loss. The official range of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China for the PL-15E is 145 kilometers.”
The IISS review also confirmed that Indian aircraft “struck nine alleged terrorist hideouts or camps in Azad Jammu and Kashmir as well as Pakistani Punjab”. It added: “Although reports vary on what aircraft and weapons India used, India said it used MBDA Scalp-EG land-attack cruise missiles and Safran AASM Hammer 250 guided bombs launched from Dassault Rafale DH/EH aircraft (the DH is a twin-seater) to target these sites.”
“In response, Pakistan (with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsos) deployed its fighter aircraft – possibly Chengdu J-10CE Firebrands and CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder Block III,” the review said.
“But… neither country’s fighter aircraft went beyond its airspace,” it concluded. The report also said that the India-Pakistan conflict “provided a real-world test of Chinese military technology”.
After the operation, it said, “India continued to expand its capabilities, modernize its forces, and strengthen its domestic defense-industrial base… aiming to develop an integrated air and missile defense system by 2035, covering both strategic and civilian domains. The country adopted a new maritime doctrine for the first time in a decade, as well as a joint doctrine on special forces.”
It also commented, “India’s armed forces are primarily oriented toward territorial disputes with Pakistan. The country also has a long-standing territorial dispute with China and is paying attention to security concerns posed by Beijing in the Indian Ocean… India continues to develop its nuclear capabilities, and in 2024 tested its Agni-V IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missile), using MIRVs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles). India’s equipment is mainly of Soviet and Russian origin, particularly its air capabilities – the two countries are also cooperating on missile defense through recent imports from the US and France… The government’s ‘Make in India’ policy aims to strengthen the defence-industrial base. “Limited foreign direct investment in defence”.
defense spending in asia
India’s defense outlay last year was $78.3 billion. This was the sixth highest among all countries, with Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom in third, fourth and fifth place. The IISS report estimated that “(India’s defense budget) may increase after a major conflict with Pakistan in May 2025… The government claimed that 65% of the country’s defense equipment is now produced domestically. Yet, licensed assembly and manufacturing comprises a large portion of this percentage, especially for major defense platforms.”
Commenting on Pakistan, the IISS said the country “announced the establishment of an Army Rocket Force Command, followed by the first test of a new Fatah IV ground-launched cruise missile”. It added, “In the naval sector, the country saw the launch of its second and third Chinese-designed Hangar-class (Type-039B (Yuan)) conventionally powered attack submarines, which feature air-independent propulsion. The first of eight boats ordered in 2015 – of which only the initial four are being built in China – are expected to enter service in 2026.”
Regarding Pakistan’s defense budget, it estimated expenditure to increase by 17.8% to $10 billion in 2025, with the high rate of inflation in the country having a “significant impact”, so much so, that the 2025 allocation is “actually 11% lower in real terms than 2019”.
Due to India’s recent strained relations with Bangladesh it becomes relevant to know what the review says about it.
“The country has close defense ties with India, its longest-serving defense partner,” it said, but it canceled a $21 million shipbuilding contract due in May 2025.
Bangladesh’s budget allocation for 2026 was still a modest $3.25 billion. The military expenditure of Myanmar, one of India’s other neighbours, was estimated at $2.47 billion in 2025, almost entirely spent on maintaining internal security and carrying out counter-insurgency operations – given the insurgency against military rule.
But as the IISS report makes abundantly clear, China is the dragon in the Asian universe. Chinese defense outlay last year was $251.29 billion, accounting for about 44% of all military spending in Asia. China’s spending was second only to the US’s $921 billion, and more than three times that of India, which was the second-highest spender in the Asian continent. Japan is at second place with $58.9 billion and South Korea is at second place with $43.8 billion.
China continues to flex its muscles against neighbors with whom it has territorial disagreements. In the new environment of Trump-led America, Washington’s East Asian allies have been kept guessing about its commitment to security guarantees. As a result, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan may invest more on defense to protect their interests. “Japan has made significant progress in developing a suite of stand-off missile capabilities,” the Military Balance 2026 manual explains.
The round-up of the year highlighted, “The growth in China’s aircraft carrier capabilities clearly reflects the country’s progress in capability and increasing operational reach.” It added: “In 2025, significant personnel changes took place in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as part of an ongoing anti-corruption campaign, which has led foreign analysts to question the impact on operational readiness and China’s defense-industrial capabilities.” But a Chinese white paper published in December 2025 reaffirmed a policy of “no first use” in the use of nuclear weapons.
As the IISS account states, “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the world’s largest armed force with an increasingly advanced equipment inventory.” China’s military manpower is 2,035,000 (Ground Force 950,000, Navy 262,000, Air Force 403,000). In comparison, India’s strength is 1,500,700 (Army 1,248,000, Navy 84,350, Air Force 151,800).
China has 275 satellites, 62 submarines, three aircraft carriers and 2,880 combat capable aircraft, while India has 27 satellites, 19 submarines, two aircraft carriers and 636 combat capable aircraft. Obviously, such numbers are disproportionately in China’s favor. Therefore, India will have to match China in quality rather than quantity, with the use of drones being a new element in warfare.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, it has 660,000 men and women in its armed forces – 560,000 in its army, 30,000 in its navy and 70,000 in its air force. “Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional capabilities are focused on the threat from India,” the report underlined.
