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Operation Sindoor: India emerged with a clear operational advantage, as it protected assets and degraded Pakistan’s capabilities, while dictating escalation dynamics, says report
Army officials with a tableau themed on ‘Operation Sindoor’ during the 78th Army Day parade in Jaipur on January 15. (PTI)
India’s air superiority during its 88-hour Operation Sindoor coerced Pakistan into a ceasefire during the May 7-10, 2025 conflict, according to a detailed European military analysis.
The report highlights how India emerged with a clear operational advantage, by protecting critical assets, degrading adversary capabilities, dictating escalation dynamics, and demonstrating credible deep-strike capability without crossing nuclear thresholds.
The report, titled ‘Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025)’, is authored by Adrien Fontanellaz and was published last week by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military history and strategic studies institution based in Pully, Switzerland. Founded in 1969, CHPM is not affiliated with any government and positions itself as a neutral forum for professional military research, force-preparation studies, and lessons-learned analysis. The publication carries institutional oversight, with a review committee including Joseph Henrotin, a Paris-based strategic analyst associated with European defence think tanks; Claude Meier, a retired Swiss Air Force Major General and former Chief of Staff; and Arthur Lüsenti, a specialist in nuclear doctrine and arms control with experience at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
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According to the report, India’s response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack marked a deliberate shift from earlier crisis-management precedents. The political leadership led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi authorised strikes against Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba infrastructure deep inside Pakistani territory, while granting the armed forces freedom to manage escalation.
OP SINDOOR ATTACKS: REPORT SHOWS HOW INDIA DOMINATED THE AIRSPACE
The first wave of Pakistani attacks on the night of May 7-8, 2025 resulted in a second stage of Indian escalation, planned during the preparatory phase of Operation Sindoor. On May 8, the IAF launched its own campaign of air interdiction and air strikes against Pakistani air-defences. This operation, focused on border surveillance radars and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries, carried on until the evening of May 9. Eight air-defence sites were struck on May 8, and a further four the following day, resulting in the visually documented neutralisation of at least two early-warning radars at Chunian and Pasrur.
The IAF also claimed to have struck at least one HQ-9 battery, although the Pakistani side stated that their air-defence systems had shot down 25 drones on the morning of May 9. One of the IAF’s S-400 batteries reportedly surprised the PAF, likely by lying in ambush near the border, and engaged an Erieye or electronic warfare aircraft orbiting well beyond. The IAF claimed to have destroyed the enemy aircraft at a range close to 300 kilometres.
The cumulative effect of these operations was a drastic reduction in both the extent and quality of Pakistani airspace coverage, as several radars that remained intact ceased emissions to avoid attracting enemy strikes, thereby facilitating the potential penetration of a further escalation stage by Indian aviation, according to the report.
HOW INDIA’S CHECKMATE HURT PAKISTAN: WHAT THE REPORT STATES
The Indians detected preparations for the Pakistani attack scheduled on the evening of May 9 and opted for a quasi-immediate counterstrike. As soon as the Pakistani action had concluded, between 02:00 and 05:00 on 10 May, the IAF conducted a series of strikes using BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles launched from within Indian airspace by Su-30MKIs, Jaguars and Rafales. The missiles struck seven sites up to 200 kilometres inside Pakistani territory, including one surface-to-air missile battery and five air bases.
In north Pakistan, Nur Khan Air Base, near Islamabad, was hit by at least one missile, which destroyed a PAF command-and-control centre, while Murid Air Base, the hub of Pakistan’s MALE drone fleet, saw several hangars housing drones and a control centre struck. In central Pakistan, the small Rahim Yar Khan Air Base sustained several missile impacts on its runway, while the civilian airport terminal, which reportedly hosted a drone control centre, was also severely damaged. Rafiqi Air Base was also targeted, though the Indian side did not disclose specific objectives or damage inflicted. Finally, in the south, a hangar that housed drones and a radar at Sukkur Air Base were struck.
After having detected preparations for a PAF counterstrike, the IAF launched a second wave of attacks at 10:00 on 10 May, which employed the same munitions and the same tactics, but this time extending their targeting to manned aircraft, whereas the previous night’s strikes had mostly been restricted to drones and their support infrastructure.
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In central Pakistan, Sargodha Air Base, home to multiple combat squadrons, was rendered inoperative by several missile impacts at the intersection of its runways. Indian strikes were even more destructive in the south. At Jacobabad Air Base, an F-16 maintenance hangar suffered a direct hit, while a radar was also damaged or destroyed, along with electrical and cooling facilities. At Bholari Air Base, another hangar housing one or more Erieye aircraft was severely damaged.
In total, the IAF assessed that at least four or five F-16s, one Erieye, one C-130 transport aircraft, several MALE drones, two radars, two command-and-control centres and one surface-to-air missile battery had been destroyed on the ground, at the cost of roughly fifty long-range munitions. The PAF, however, subsequently reported that the Erieye hit at Bholari was only lightly damaged and was quickly repaired, though five personnel were killed in the strike.
By noon on 10 May, Pakistani military authorities requested a ceasefire from their Indian counterparts. This was quickly accepted, as the political objectives assigned to the military, namely to conduct spectacular retaliatory strikes to deter JeM and LeT while countering the Pakistan military’s response, had been achieved. New Delhi thus claimed to have brought the conflict to a close, whereas other powers repeatedly get bogged down in the conflicts they initiate, said the report.
THE AIR BATTLE AND ITS IMPACT
Around 01:00 on the morning of May 7, Indian aircraft launched a series of longrange munitions against the complex that housed the JeM headquarters at Bahawalpur, roughly one hundred kilometres from the border. At the same time, another formation released a second salvo of guided munitions against the LeT headquarters at Muridke. One of the two Indian strike formations, composed of Rafale or Mirage 2000I aircraft, penetrated Pakistani airspace at very low altitude before executing a pop-up manoeuvre to release precision-guided bombs, continuing to guide them until impact. Pakistani ground-based radar and electronic listening stations, supported by an Erieye airborne early warning and control system, detected the approach of the IAF strike and diversion formations shortly after midnight. Over the following twenty minutes, they identified eight distinct groups of six to eight aircraft each, concentrated along four main axes, totalling 60 aircraft, including 14 Rafales, soon reinforced by a further dozen combat aircraft. The PAF, which initially ran three combat air patrols (two of four and one of two aircraft), scrambled 32 additional fighters (F-16s, JF-17s, and J-10Cs) on quick reaction alert, most of which concentrated in the east of Pakistan’s airspace, from Lahore to east of Islamabad. The Erieye continued to orbit at the rear, over the Peshawar region, facing the two largest Indian concentrations. The PAF thus established a locally less unfavourable force ratio, with 24 Pakistani fighters confronting 28 Indian aircraft.
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The subsequent circulation of images of wreckage fragments on social media and in Indian and Pakistani media, however, confirmed the loss of at least one Rafale (serial number BS001), one Mirage 2000 and either one MiG29UPG or one Su-30MKI.
The IAF and the Indian government have neither confirmed nor denied losing aircraft during Operation Sindoor. Recently, Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan admitted that “unspecified” losses were sustained but stressed that all mission objectives were achieved. Director General Air Operations, Air Marshal A K Bharti, added that “losses are part of any combat,” while confirming that no pilots were lost and that Pakistan’s air force did suffer damage. In June, India’s Defence Attache to Indonesia, Captain Shiv Kumar, also referred to “some aircraft” losses, attributing them to initial political restrictions on targeting Pakistani air defences.
THE REASONS BEHIND THE LOSSES: WHAT THE REPORT STATES
1. The Pakistanis were likely not surprised by the Indian operation, which was very similar in design, albeit more ambitious to Operation Bandar in 2019. In fact, the PAF had already conducted the Zarb-e-Haideri air defence exercise on April 27 and redeployed a portion of its fighters to better cover the country’s coasts, including Karachi, the nation’s economic hub, offshore from which the Indian carrier battle group centred on INS Vikrant was operating, as well as the eastern sector of Pakistan.
2. The Indians appear to have assumed that the Pakistanis would continue adhering to their established practice of refraining from firing at aircraft outside Pakistani airspace. Indian pilots were therefore likely taken by surprise by long-range Pakistani fire while some were operating tens of kilometres from the border or the Line of Control.
3. On a more tactical level, some Pakistani fighters may have succeeded in remaining covert by switching off their electromagnetic emissions and by flying at low altitude in to order to conceal behind the mountainous terrain, despite at least one IAF AEW&C platform supported the attack. Furthermore, as in 2019, the Pakistanis did their best to disrupt adversary communications.
4. Indian intelligence reportedly underestimated the threat posed by the PL-15 missile, assuming that the PAF possessed an export variant with a maximum range of 150 kilometres, well short of the 200 kilometres at which some missiles were actually fired, surprising Indian pilots. This misjudgement may have resulted from deliberate deception, as shortly before the operation, documents from the Chinese firm CATIC, allegedly leaked, suggested the delivery to Pakistan of a significantly downgraded export variant of the PL-15.
5. The PAF is believed to have used its Link 17 data link, capable of integrating Western and Chinese technologies, to conduct cooperative engagements.
IAF STRENGTH
The Indian Air Force (IAF) is presently the world’s fourth-largest air force in terms of size. New Delhi systematically uses major acquisitions to foster the development and consolidation of its domestic defence industry. Thus, by seeking to assemble part of the aircraft acquired by the IAF domestically while gradually increasing the proportion of locally manufactured components, India has achieved a measure of success. The IAF’s sizeable UAV fleet is likewise largely composed of Israeli platforms, including the Searcher, Heron and Heron TP MALE drones, as well as Harop and Harpy loitering munitions. In addition, the IAF was able to acquire sophisticated equipment, often along with transfers of technology of varying depth, from countries such as the United Kingdom (Hawk trainer aircraft), France (Mirage 2000 upgrade and Rafale acquisition), and the United States (Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft).
Beyond the BrahMos supersonic missiles, India has completed development of the Astra active radar-guided air-to-air missile, intended to replace the Russian R-27 and R-77 missiles. Besides, Indian engineers converted three Embraer 145 aircraft into AEW&C platforms, giving rise to the Netra system. By 2022, the IAF had received at least sixteen Akash medium-range surface-to-air missile batteries, along with several types of early-warning radars. The Indian armed forces also rely on a limited constellation of communication and radar reconnaissance satellites.
CONCLUSION: THE REPORT
Pakistan did not mount a response of comparable scale or depth, and the escalation cycle ended without external mediation.
The report concludes that India achieved escalation dominance by demonstrating both the capability and the willingness to impose higher costs while retaining control over further escalation.
January 25, 2026, 13:00 IST
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