Pakistan’s fate in this tournament still isn’t sealed — but the math is tight. Here’s exactly what they need.
Scenario One: Bat First, Win Big
If Pakistan win the toss and choose to bat — or are sent in by Sri Lanka — a win alone won’t be enough. They need to win convincingly. The required margin scales with their total:
- Score 103–150? They need to win by 63 runs or more
- Score 151–198? The margin rises to 64 runs or more
- Score 199–246? They need to win by 65 runs or more
In short, the bigger they score with the bat, the bigger they need to win — and there’s no room for a close finish.
Scenario Two: Bowl First, Chase Fast
This may actually be Pakistan’s more realistic route to qualification. If they bowl first, the mission is to keep Sri Lanka’s total well below par — and then chase it down at a
blistering pace.
The critical cut-off is 12.4 overs. Any chase completed after that point will not be enough to advance Pakistan’s net run rate to qualification. It doesn’t matter if they win — how fast they win is everything.
