The cataclysmic events in Syria have surprised at least most of the world. Their full importance and impact will be understood only with time. How did proud, progressive Syria become in such a condition? The only parallel is Afghanistan, where a terrorist group swept into Kabul and took over the country as President Ashraf Ghani fled. In Syria, rebel groups backed by Turkey, many of which had previous links to al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, moved into Damascus after a lightning attack from northwestern Syria, where, without a fight, President Bashar al- Assad’s regime capitulated. Predictably, the President fled the country with his family. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali announced that he had agreed to hand over power to the rebel “Salvation Government”. Chief rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Jolani met with the prime minister to coordinate a transfer of power that “guarantees the provision of services”.
Comparison with Afghanistan is both inevitable and disappointing. Syrian society was qualitatively different. The country had achieved 100% literacy; Women had equal rights as men; Many of its minorities and the al-Assad dynasty, which ruled Syria for more than five decades and are members of Syria’s largest minority group, the Alawites, had kept the country secular. Despite close friendship with Iran, Syria was at the forefront of pan-Arabism. Until the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, it was a strong champion of the Palestinian cause, hosted Hamas and refused to make peace with Israel until the return of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since the 1967 war. Was. Ultimately, Syria became a bulwark against Sunni fundamentalism, albeit at a heavy human cost.
what went wrong? numerous explanations
We may never know what really happened after November 27, when rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) invaded Idlib, which they had held since the beginning of the brotherly war. Which had taken the lives of lakhs of people. , Within two weeks, they were able to enter and capture Damascus. The world has been left astonished as, due to the military and economic support provided by Russia, Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Assad regime was once able to wrest back more than 70% of Syrian territory from various terrorist organizations. , who had captured some parts. Of the country. ISIS was also involved in this.
The narratives abound: that Western sanctions had ruined the Syrian economy, that long years of war, coupled with a lack of reforms, had left the Syrian army weak, exhausted and ready to fight its co-religionists (the majority Syrians). Made me demoralized. are Sunni Muslims and the rebel groups fighting the Assad regime were almost all Sunni). Assad himself had failed to consolidate military gains and translate them into political and social gains. Russia, Syria’s main military backer, moved too far to intervene in the Ukraine conflict, while Iran was weakened by Israel. Hezbollah was also in a dilemma after the war with Israel.
Were Iran’s warnings ignored?
Russia itself has announced that Assad negotiated with the rebels and decided to leave the country without consulting it. The clearest message has come from Iran. According to Iran’s FARS news agency, in June this year, Iran’s supreme leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei warned Assad – it was their last meeting – that rebel groups were regrouping and planning an offensive in Syria. Have been. However, such warnings and preventive measures were ignored. High-ranking Iranian officials were in discussions with Assad even hours before his overthrow. But Assad relies more on his Arab allies, with whom he has recently reconciled. Due to this, Iran decided not to intervene further in Syria. In any case, the “Shia Crescent” created by Iran – spanning Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – had almost collapsed by then.
Indeed, the past few years have seen a rapprochement between Assad and Sunni powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, all of whom initially supported various rebel factions in the Syrian civil war. A variety of geopolitical factors – not least of which was an indifferent United States – and attacks on the region by both Sunni fundamentalist ISIS in Yemen and Iran-backed Shia Houthis caused reconsideration, leading him to embrace Assad. Syria was reinstated into the Arab League last year, following its expulsion in 2011; A delighted Assad also visited Saudi Arabia, where he was warmly welcomed. The only major Sunni power to refuse to recognize Assad-ruled Syria was Qatar, which funded several Syrian rebel groups.
so what happens now?
Creating another Afghanistan?
HTS, which has now taken control of Damascus, was until a few years ago an affiliate of Al Qaeda which wanted to establish a caliphate and engaged in brutal acts of violence. Al Jolani himself was an al Qaeda member who served time in US custody and had a $10 million bounty on his head. In 2016, he announced that HTS had broken ties with al Qaeda. While some sections of the media are portraying him and HTS as transforming into a more moderate rebel group, it remains to be seen whether this change is genuine or just a tactical move. For example, in the case of the Taliban, while its stance regarding its external relations has changed, its attitude towards women and minorities has not.
In any case, any political change usually faces teething troubles. It is important for the international community to see that no power vacuum continues to exist for long. For now, Assad’s main allies Russia and Iran have had to retreat from Syria, although both have said they are in contact with rebel leaders. The Joe Biden administration is bombing ISIS strongholds and monitoring Syrian weapons depots, while President-elect Donald Trump has declared this is not America’s war.
Benefits Turkey?
Israel and Turkey clearly have the upper hand. Israel has occupied a part of the demilitarized buffer zone on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights to prevent any anarchy from spreading into its territory. The Israeli Air Force and Navy have attacked missile depots, naval ships, fighter planes and more to ensure that they do not fall into the wrong hands. In a statement on Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Forces said its air force and navy had carried out more than 350 strikes against “strategic targets” in Syria in an effort to prevent advanced weapons from falling, and “the majority of strategic weapons stockpiles”. Has been taken out. Into the hands of hostile elements.
On the other hand, Türkiye has long been aiding Syrian rebels; The majority of foreign fighters entering Syria to join rebels, including ISIS, have passed through the Turkish-Syrian border. It is also widely believed that the current rebel offensive would not have been possible without Türkiye’s tacit approval. In northwestern areas of Syria, which have been held by rebels since the civil war began in 2012, both the Syrian revolutionary flag and the Turkish flag fly.
Even though Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned Israel for incursions into Syrian territory and spoken out against any efforts to divide Syria, it is very possible that Turkey itself could move deeper into Syria, Even if insisting on a large buffer zone between its borders. And Syria. Türkiye may also use some of these groups as leverage to achieve its strategic objectives in the region.
The Kurdish rebellion cannot be beyond questions
Another possibility is the creation of an enclave for the Kurdish minority in northeastern Syria. Syrian Kurds have been at the forefront of the fight against ISIS, but they have also alleged widespread oppression by the Assad regime. The emergence of an independent Kurdish enclave would be of strategic importance for Israel as well as Sunni Arab states. Israel has always maintained good relations with the Kurds, a significant minority community found in countries throughout the region—Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Interestingly, the new Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz mentioned his support for the Kurds and their cause in his address soon after taking office. However, an independent Kurdish enclave would be strongly opposed by Türkiye, which has long been waging an internal battle against the Kurdish insurgency. Iran will also oppose this.
Will Syria become a terrorist center?
The second security nightmare is that the void, with the Syrian army nearly decimated, could once again attract terrorist groups to set up bases in Syria. The possibility of the re-emergence of another ISIS-like monstrosity in Syria is not too far-fetched.
The only hope in this quagmire can be drawn from the Syrian people – the many capable, resilient women and men who have paid a great price and made many sacrifices for their homeland over the years. They are the only people who can ensure that Syria does not become another Afghanistan.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
