At 8:06 a.m. Tuesday, President Trump issued the most dramatic ultimatum of his presidency: If Iran does not make a deal in the next 12 hours, “an entire civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back.”
Even for a president who has long relied on maximalist threats, the 85-word post was shocking. It reached from the Oval Office to foreign embassies and corporate suites, triggering a countdown to Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline and a frantic global guessing game on what the world’s most powerful man was willing to do.
Less than ninety minutes before his deadline, Trump backtracked, writing in a social-media post that he had and would agree to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. postpone his threatened strikes Subject to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump had warned for days that he would bomb Iran’s bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure, and insisted that the country’s people would be “willing to endure all this to have freedom.” As he appeared to threaten to destroy the country of 93 million people, he also appeared to leave the door open to a deal to stop the devastating attacks.
“Who knows?” He has written. “Tonight we explore one of the most important moments in the world’s long and complex history.”
As time passed, everyone from Pope Leo to actor Ben Stiller called on Trump to step back. Administration officials fielded phone calls from officials and political allies to try to understand whether Trump’s threat was a hoax or the beginning of an escalation.
European officials rallied on one call and largely convinced themselves that Trump would back down. On Wall Street, traders and executives treated the day like other Trump deadlines that have come and gone: as a negotiating tactic they hoped would pass without widespread devastation.
struggle for off-ramp
Trump’s social-media posts ignited group chats around the world and sparked a race among U.S. allies and mediators to find an off-ramp or buy more time.
As their threat spread across Iran, many residents prepared to turn off electricity and gas and debated whether it would be safer to stay in the city or camp in the countryside.. Some people dusted off old camping stoves and canisters filled with oil. “When the pain goes deep enough, fear takes over,” said a 42-year-old Iranian woman, citing the country’s five-week war and years of repression and economic crisis.
Less than 30 minutes after Trump’s post, Iranian officials told Egypt that Tehran had cut off direct communications with US negotiators, according to Arab government officials. Officials from several Arab governments warned that the president’s threat was likely to have an adverse effect on Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has signaled it would plunge the region into darkness if Iranian infrastructure was attacked.
Trump’s post made headlines in Israel as people there prepared for the end of Passover. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert read the message just before sirens warning of an Iranian missile threat over central Israel sent him into his home bomb shelter. “I do not accept President Trump’s statement at face value,” Olmert said from his shelter. “I want to believe that what he meant was that we would destroy the regime. I don’t think we can accept any destruction, complete or partial, of Iranian civilization.”
At 9 a.m., Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Cain logged in to their daily secure videoconference with Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central.
Permission. According to two US officials, Cooper and military planners at the Pentagon were preparing for possible attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Military planners drew on existing target lists that had already been reviewed and examined by military lawyers.
Officials said the list of targets falls far short of Trump’s threat that “every power plant in Iran will be shut down, burned, exploded.” Each target was legally feasible, officials said, because it had clear connections to Iran’s military and security forces and would not cause excessive harm to the civilian population. According to US officials, overnight US forces attacked more than 50 targets on Kharg Island, but did not attack oil infrastructure.
“The entire department acts at the direction of the President and will execute his military objectives without fail,” said Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell.
‘We will see that the king has no clothes’
Trump’s threat sparked similar discussions among Trump’s allies and influencers, who engaged in furious speculation on live-streams and podcasts. “He’s trying to look threatening and crazy,” Tim Poole, a social media personality with more than two million followers, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. If Trump fails to comply, “we will see the emperor have no clothes…This will be his last shot,” he said later in a video filmed for his followers.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was on a plane en route to Washington when Trump published his social-media post. He was scheduled to meet with Trump, Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday.
Some European officials gathered on a call to discuss the fallout from the president’s threat. Two officials present on the call said the consensus was that Trump was going to back down.
Vice President JD Vance takes the stage with Hungarian President Viktor Orban in Budapest. “I hope they’re smart,” Vance said of the Iranians. “The President has set a deadline of about 12 hours from now in the United States. We’re going to figure it out but there’s a lot of conversation to be had between now and then.”
At 10:30 a.m., Fox News host Brett Baier went on the air with the president’s message. He said Trump had told him “it’s going to be 8 p.m.,” adding, “If we get to that point, there’s going to be an attack like they haven’t seen.”
With time ticking on his self-imposed deadline, Trump appeared to be vacillating between last-minute diplomacy to deal with a major escalation and more mundane activities. In the morning, he phoned in a rally at a sports arena in Budapest, headlined by Vance, who displayed his cellphone on stage in front of thousands of Orbán supporters.
He held meetings at the White House with tech investor David Sachs and Justice Department officials, according to a person familiar with the matter. They removed more than two dozen Truth Social posts endorsing candidates for Indiana state legislative races.
Inside the Trump administration, some officials privately expressed concern about the president’s threat. A White House official described Trump’s post as disturbing and said the president’s focus on foreign affairs was distracting from domestic priorities that could win over the public.
Other senior administration officials and Trump allies said they viewed Truth Social posts as a negotiating tactic.
People on the thread said the text chain, which included tech CEOs and investors, expressed concerns about the potentially destabilizing effects of the president’s threats after a five-week war that has sent oil prices soaring and roiled the global economy.
Sovereign-wealth funds based in the Gulf states — many of which have been bombed by Iran in recent weeks — have been key investors in the AI ​​revolution that is powering both the tech sector and U.S. economic growth during Trump’s second term. If they had to invest more in defense, they wouldn’t be able to invest as much in America’s AI boom, said people who spoke to fund leaders.
On Wall Street, traders were somewhat hesitant to exit when Trump frequently changed direction, and while many expected Trump to launch an attack, some were betting that the most realistic scenario would be widespread destruction.
People familiar with the matter said Citigroup has amended protocols around the presidential election, such as preventing any small coding updates to its trading tools or anything else that could slow down operations.
“It’s dizzying,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. “One look at the markets screen and one look at Trump’s Truth social page.”
Carlyle Vice Chairman James Stavridis, a retired US Navy admiral, gave an internal briefing to officials saying he believed the chances of a ceasefire in the next few weeks were about 65% as both sides are encouraged to negotiate. But he warned there was a 35% chance of further conflict, more tensions on both sides, and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Former Trump adviser Brian Lanza, now a corporate consultant, received a wave of inquiries from clients — including executives in the energy and finance sectors — after Trump rose to office, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Lanza questioned him while on vacation in Turks and Caicos, urging calm and arguing that Trump would not follow through on his threat.
As the day progressed, reactions to Trump’s threat started coming from all sides. Actor Ben Stiller posted, “Stop the escalation. End the war now. No one wants that.” Pope Leo, who has been critical of the US war in Iran, called Trump’s threats “truly unacceptable”.
last ditch effort to make a deal
By afternoon, with little progress, few European officials spoke publicly. “One cannot destroy a civilization,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in a local television interview.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, one of Trump’s closest European allies, also issued a rare criticism. “It is important to clearly differentiate between the responsibilities of governance and the fate of millions of ordinary citizens,” he said. “Iran’s civilian population cannot and should not pay the price for the sins of its leaders.”
This message was echoed from Capitol Hill. It would be a “big mistake” if Trump attacked civilian targets, Trump ally Senator Ron Johnson (R., Wis.), said, adding that he hoped Trump was trying to “use his unpredictability” to make a deal. Dozens of Democrats called for Trump’s removal from office through the 25th Amendment or other means.
Soon after, the first signs appeared that Trump’s deadline could slip as US allies asked for more time for diplomacy. Shortly after 3 p.m., Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly called on Trump to extend his ultimatum by two weeks and support the US-Iran ceasefire, and urged Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a goodwill gesture.
White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt said in response to Pakistan’s appeal, “The President has been briefed on the proposal and a response will be forthcoming.” Trump later told Fox News that the US was in “warm talks” about reaching a deal with Iran.
The president spent much of the afternoon in the Oval Office with key aides, listening to calls and hearing the pros and cons of the proposal.
At 6:32 pm, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would call off his planned strike. “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s agreement to the full, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack on Iran for a period of two weeks,” he wrote.
Some US officials said they were concerned Iran would not fully meet Trump’s demands, potentially bringing both Washington and Tehran to the brink in two weeks.
