For months he tried to give the impression that he didn’t have a care in the world. His most recent party trick, on state television, was to sing John Lennon’s “Imagine” in nursery-level English. He “wanted peace, not war,” he promised. He claimed that a telephone conversation he had with President Donald Trump in November was “cordial.” He used to tell his insiders that he sleeps “like a baby”. It was all a big misunderstanding. Now, after being seized by US special forces in the Venezuelan capital Caracas extraordinary night raid As early as January 3, he will never be able to sleep again in the country he misruled for more than a decade. By day’s end Nicolas Maduro, the former Venezuelan president, was being wheeled into the offices of the US Drug Enforcement Administration in New York. The charges of which he was convicted carry penalties ranging from 20 years to life in prison.
The fall of Mr. Maduro has delighted millions of Venezuelans, especially expatriates. Street parties suddenly started from Chile to Miami. Precautionary rules inside the country. It is not clear whether Mr. Maduro’s departure marks the beginning of the end of the regime. At a press conference held at his Florida mansion on January 3, Mr Trump rejected the idea that Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition’s most prominent figure and Nobel Peace Prize winner, should lead the country. Instead, he claimed, bizarrely, that he “does not have support or respect within the country”. The name of Edmundo González, who with their support actually won the last presidential election in 2024 (Ms Machado was barred from running), was not even mentioned.
dig deep
Mr Trump instead promised that the United States would “run” Venezuela. He said Mr. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was “essentially willing to do what we think is needed to make Venezuela great again” and incorrectly said she had already been sworn in as president. Although he promised a “transition” at some point that could provide an opportunity for Ms. Machado, Mr. Trump was most interested in profiting from the country’s oil.
Mr Trump’s PlanWhat was short on detail and long on optimism seemed to unleash American capitalism on Venezuelan oil reserves with the help of a new Venezuelan government. He said that oil companies would invest “billions and trillions” of dollars to revive Venezuela’s oil fields, and that the country would be rebuilt based on the resulting revenues, which would eventually result in elections. This depends on Ms. Rodriguez’s compliance. Mr Trump thought it was safe. “I think she was kind enough, but she doesn’t really have a choice,” he said, repeatedly threatening further attacks if her wishes were ignored.
But Ms. Rodriguez, who describes herself as a leftist thinker, did not summarize the day’s events that way. Appearing on state television shortly after Mr Trump’s remarks, he said Mr Maduro remains the country’s sole president despite his capture. “We will never be a colony of any empire,” he said. “What is being done to Venezuela is barbaric.” The Trump administration appeared to gloss over those comments and treated them as necessary domestic signals to keep the regime in line.
Ms. Rodriguez, who serves as both vice president and oil minister, is considered more financially literate than most people in the regime. Partly educated in France, he helped drive pro-market reforms and the informal dollarization of the economy in 2019, bringing some stability. His brother is the head of the National Assembly. His father was a leftist revolutionary who was tortured and possibly murdered by Venezuelan state security forces in 1976. He is seen as pragmatic in Caracas business circles, although both he and his brother are sometimes described as being on a “revenge journey” against the country’s old elite, including Ms. Machado.
Even if her comments on television are cosmetic, and she is actually working privately with Mr. Trump, she faces the immediate challenge of ensuring that other powerful figures support her. Earlier on January 3, Interior Minister and strongman leader Diosdado Cabello urged calm and declared that “we have learned how to avoid all these situations.” The defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, promised that the Venezuelan military would “resist” the US attack.
The biggest question is whether the Venezuelan military will support Ms Rodriguez and thus Mr Trump’s apparent plan. It has bowed to American military power, and is perhaps afraid of falling prey to Mr Trump’s bluff. Many generals have profited handsomely from drug trafficking and corruption under the regime. If Ms. Rodriguez offers a chance to bring more cash, or at least keep the loot they already have, they might fall in line. So far, top Army officials have said little publicly.
However, there is a risk that the army becomes divided. Some groups may support Ms. Rodriguez; Others may want power for themselves or for Mr. Padrino; Some, perhaps joining forces with dissident soldiers who have already fled to neighboring countries, may press for Ms Machado’s return. A fragmented army would increase the dangerous mix of armed people in Venezuela and could destabilize the regime. The morning after the Americans invaded, some colectivos, pro-regime armed gangs, were seen patrolling the streets of Caracas. The National Liberation Army, a Colombian rebel group, and drug gangs such as the Tren de Aragua also operate in Venezuela. It appears that Mr. Trump believes that the threat of further attacks can keep all these various factors in check. But if conflict erupts, U.S. troops may be needed on Venezuelan soil to restore order. Mr Trump said he was “not afraid” to commit troops.
Ms Machado found herself sidelined at the very moment her dream of a Venezuela without Mr Maduro came true. She will certainly lobby the Trump administration to change its stance, although months of sweet-talking by Mr. Trump have so far been able to get her nowhere. Failing that, perhaps she would try to encourage demonstrations in favor of rapid change in Venezuela.
But organizing a popular rebellion would be difficult. The country is tired after decades of oppression and falling incomes. Some 8 million people have fled since 2015, leaving relatively few of the protesting age. The repression following the election theft in 2024, when Mr. Maduro claimed to have jailed thousands of people, has so frightened most people that they cannot voice their unhappiness. After the US raid, Venezuelans were more focused on survival than performance.
Governance also has its own existential challenges. Venezuela’s allies have offered little support. Cuban intelligence officials, long working to protect Mr. Maduro and root out his army of dissidents, failed to protect their client. Officials in Havana, which depend on Venezuelan oil, will now likely support whichever regime official replaces him. But Cuba is a dramatically weakened ally, now facing its own struggle for survival. Mr Trump is promising to cut off its oil supplies and threatening direct action against the island. Relations with Ms. Rodriguez appear to have soured. “She was irritated by the Cubans,” says a Western diplomat in Caracas, who suggested Cuban officials were ungrateful for all the cheap oil. China, the main buyer of Venezuela’s oil, and Russia, a frequent arms supplier, have long helped Mr Maduro. Both strongly condemned the raid but said nothing to suggest any imminent practical support.
Mr. Maduro never had many friends in the region. The leftist leaders of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico influenced him most. Those bonds also appear weak now. All three governments expressed outrage at the US attack and condemned the violation of sovereignty. But it is unlikely to support any resistance against the United States. Instead their interests are narrow: They worry about the chaos spreading throughout the region and Venezuelan refugees. Mexico and Colombia also fear American attacks on their territory. At his news conference Mr Trump threatened Mexico and told Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro to “watch your ass”.
Faced with few foreign backers, uncertain support from the military and threats from Mr. Trump, Ms. Rodriguez may have chosen, or soon will choose, a compromise. The governance system she works for is surprisingly durable and adaptable. It survived the death of its original leader, Hugo Chávez. Now a compromise with his perceived enemy may give him another chance to survive.
