Time to be with Nitish, Lalu and the public once again

74-year-old Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and 77-year-old Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo Lalu Prasad have been at the helm of Bihar politics for almost five decades. His journey began as a comrade in the Jayaprakash Narayan (JP) movement of the 1970s, fighting against the Emergency and advocating socialist ideals. Over the years, they parted ways, joined hands again and reshaped Bihar’s political landscape again and again – often as rivals, sometimes as allies, but always as key figures in these decades. Together, they have held power in the state, either directly or through influence, for most of 30 years, and have created a political culture that continues to define the political identity of Bihar.

Today, advancing age and declining health have pushed both the leaders to the margins of active politics, although Mr Kumar remains the Chief Minister. The Assembly elections in Bihar this year will probably be the last elections in which Mr Kumar and Mr Prasad will be the lead actors. Their impending eclipse is not just about the two aging leaders stepping away from the spotlight; It marks the end of a political era that he himself shaped and sustained. What will happen after this will not be just a change of faces, but will be a new chapter in the political journey of Bihar. It remains to be seen whether this change will lead to progress or create new challenges.

Mr Kumar and Mr Prasad have already relinquished control of their respective parties, although it is not clear who is in command. Tejashwi Prasad Yadav is Mr Prasad’s chosen successor to lead the RJD, but his sibling is not stepping down easily. Tejashwi’s elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav has launched a new political party named Jan Shakti Janata Dal. Meanwhile, sisters Misa Bharti, the sitting MP from Patliputra, and Rohini Acharya, who donated a kidney to their father in 2022, have both expressed discomfort over the growing influence of Tejashwi’s political advisor Sanjay Yadav.

Mr Kumar is the Chief Minister, but it is hard to believe that he is in charge. His public statements and conduct have led observers to conclude that Mr. Kumar is suffering from dementia. Like the United States presidency under Joe Biden, although decisions appear to have been taken in Bihar, few people know by whom.

In the intermittent conflicts and alliances of these two leading actors over the last half-century in Bihar, there was also a third supporting actor – Ram Vilas Paswan – who died just before the 2020 assembly elections. The trio of Lalu, Nitish and Ram Vilas were the faces of various aspects of lower class politics in Bihar, which they also helped map and shape. It all started as an umbrella category of ‘backwards’ – broadly speaking all non-upper caste Hindus, but in more specific contexts middle castes excluding scheduled castes and upper castes. Due to different aspirations of different classes, that broad category started disintegrating. In a moment, we will return to this social dynamics of Bihar politics from a long-term perspective, but before that let us have a brief overview of the current dynamics and basic facts of Bihar politics.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United), with allies like the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Jitan Ram Manjhi), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha). The opposition grand alliance – the Bihar group of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc – has the RJD and the Indian National Congress as key partners, along with leftist parties (Communist Party of India – Marxist–Leninist, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India – Marxist), Vikassheel Insaan Party (Mukesh Sahni), and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (Hemant). Soren) as an ally.

Apart from these two blocs, there are at least two major players who could potentially make a decisive impact this year – the Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, and Jan Suraj, the political startup of Prashant Kishor, who was once an advisor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

caste census

Mr Kumar has been the Chief Minister of Bihar since 2005. Out of 15 years in the top post, Mr Kumar has been a partner of the BJP nine times and with the Congress and RJD six times in two installments. He can easily exit one alliance and join another the next day without blinking, and completely free from any need for explanation. Changing partners without any risk has proven to be fun for them. Political narrow-mindedness has guaranteed their long stay in power, but there is more to it.

Mr Kumar’s frequent change of partners may appear to outside observers as opportunism, but there appears to be an essential ability to secure his interests in power bargaining with both the national parties in his core constituency of Extremely Backward Class (EBC) voters and the key Other Backward Class (OBC) group of Yadavs represented by the RJD.

According to the survey of communities conducted by the state government in 2023, the population of Bihar is 82% Hindu and 17.7% Muslim. Among Hindus, 15.52% are upper castes which include Brahmins (3.66%), Bhumihars (2.87%), Rajputs (3.45%), and Kayasthas (0.6%). About one-fifth are Dalits (Scheduled Castes), and prominent among them are Paswans (Dushadhs) who form 5.31% of the total population. The middle castes of Bihar are classified under two categories – Annex 1 and Annex 2. In popular parlance, Annex 1 is called EBC and comprises 36.01% of the population, while Annex 2, Other Backward Castes (OBCs) constitutes 27.12%.

In most parts of India, caste and religion are factors with varying degrees of intensity. Bihar is a perfect laboratory of this social engineering for political purposes. Almost all secular issues, such as unemployment, housing or even infrastructure, can be linked much more closely to caste or religious identity in Bihar than the national norm. This allows analysts to limit political trends in Bihar to permutations and combinations of caste and religious identities. Even if reductionist, this framework proves to be remarkably accurate in most cases.

The much talked about Jaiprakash Narayan movement in Bihar in the early 1970s needs to be seen through this caste lens. In Bihar, the Congress Party received support from upper caste and Dalit Hindus and Muslims. The middle castes felt excluded from the power structure of the Congress. Narayan was a Kayastha, a community that is over-represented in the bureaucracy despite its negligible numerical strength. His arguments against Indira Gandhi found immediate resonance among the middle caste youth and thus Nitish-Lalu’s ‘backward caste’ politics became a major force in the state politics.

Among the large category of backward castes, there were three that had been leading in Bihar for many decades – the Yadavs, the Kurmis and the Koeris – who were jointly called the Triveni Sangh. Their early demands in the 1920s were Sanskritisation – such as demanding the right to wear the sacred thread that marks Dwijas in the Hindu caste hierarchy. Although they made some electoral gains, the real success of OBC politics in Bihar came in the late 1980s with the alienation of Muslims and upper castes. Between 1989 and 1992, when the BJP’s Ram Janmabhoomi movement was at its peak, upper castes left the Congress for the BJP and Muslims left it for the Janata Dal. Congress collapsed and has not recovered till date, although it hopes to make a comeback based on the changing dynamics in the society of Bihar.

The backward, or ‘backward’, which included Dalits under the banner of the Janata Party in the late 1980s and later the Janata Dal under the leadership of Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh, began to disintegrate soon after it gained power in Bihar. Kurmi first came out under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, then Paswan came under the leadership of Ram Vilas Paswan. The rest remained with Lalu Prasad and his caste, the Yadavs, under the RJD banner. As the dominance of Yadavs within the party and the overall state power of Bihar expanded under the RJD, other castes became restless.

The caste groups that had the capacity to form parties on their own were mobilized accordingly. Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) organized the Mallah or Nishad communities – sailors and fishermen – classified under the EBC. Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) developed the Kushwaha community as a separate faction and formed an alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress over the years. Jitan Ram Manjhi, who was once so trusted by Mr. Kumar, was chosen to keep the chair warm while Mr. Kumar took time out to establish the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) for the Dalit community Musahar.

Mr Kumar’s success so far has been in keeping all the remaining backward and extremely backward communities behind his Janata Dal (United) platform. For now, that model still holds, but it faces a different challenge – not from the RJD, but from the two national parties, BJP and Congress.

At present, Mr Kumar commands the loyalty of the remaining Other Backward Class (OBC) and EBC groups, which is why despite his three terms in power, despite the short tenure of Mr Manjhi, there is very little anti-incumbency wave in the state. The Congress-RJD alliance is trying to raise the issue of youth unemployment as a top concern, pointing to mass migration due to lack of jobs in Bihar. Congress’s “Naukri Do, Palayan Roko Yatra” – give jobs, stop migration – campaign and RJD’s job guarantee promises are at the center of their campaigns. Allegations of “vote theft” (vote theft) and manipulation of voter list (SIR) are other issues that the Congress-RJD alliance tries to raise.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has launched a new scheme – Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana – to promote self-employment among women by providing ₹10,000 each to 75 lakh women. The ₹7,500 crore scheme aims to empower women through self-employment, providing additional assistance of up to ₹2 lakh for entrepreneurial ventures in agriculture, tailoring and handicrafts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the program, although it is named after the Chief Minister.

While all parties are offering more and more on the same lines while pushing the boundaries of caste or social justice politics, efforts are also being made to harness the possibilities of other identities. The focus on women and youth as secular categories is evident in the parties’ women-centric and youth-centric promises. Prashant Kishor – a Brahmin – who has no caste background, is trying to build politics around secular questions like better schools, qualified teachers and better healthcare infrastructure, especially in rural areas.

Popular discontent against the BJP and JD(U) over unemployment, corruption and governance may come to the fore, but a discussion on rising above caste loyalties and influencing voting patterns does not seem immediate.

Yet, this remains the biggest possibility for the assembly elections in Bihar in 2025 – post-Mandal politics. In 2020, the BJP had 20 per cent vote share, five points more than its ally JDU, which had 15 per cent. RJD got 23 percent votes and Congress got nine percent votes. Once Mr Kumar and Mr Prasad are no longer active in politics, the population currently under their influence may loosen up and be open to new political options.

The Congress hopes that on the one hand, its new enthusiasm for social justice politics may make it acceptable among OBCs and EBCs in Bihar, and on the other, caste-agnostic governance considerations may work in its favour. The BJP hopes to work on a mix of Hindu solidarity, undermining caste loyalties, giving greater representation to OBCs and EBCs in its electoral design, and offering welfare schemes.

The nature and character of post-Mandal politics remains unclear, but indications of it will be visible in the results of this year’s assembly elections.