As we tackle the complexities of the US presidential election, let’s start with some basic facts and figures. About 245 million US citizens are eligible to vote, but between 160 and 165 million are expected to vote when polls close today.
The election depends on a majority in the Electoral College, which has a total of 538 votes. This includes one electoral vote for each of the 435 House seats, 100 Senate seats and three votes for Washington DC. Each state’s electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.
43 of the 50 states are reliably Republican or Democratic. The outcome will be determined by seven swing states with a total of 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10) in the Midwest, and Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6) in the Sun Belt.
Many people liked America under Trump
Had Biden remained on the Democratic ticket, Donald Trump would likely have won the election. Even with Kamala Harris turning out one of the closest presidential races in the last 50 years, Trump is certain to lose the election. One prominent political scientist put it succinctly: “The fundamentals are low approval ratings across every policy area of the Biden-Harris administration, large majorities believing the economy is bad or only fair, high prices for necessities.” “The reality is in Republican favor this year.”
new York TimesThe organization, which has consistently opposed Trump editorially, has been following a focus group for the last two years. In its final summary, the newspaper notes: “A key takeaway from our groups is that a cross-section of independents, Republicans and Democrats liked how America was under Mr. Trump, giving them positive results about the economy, relative global stability. Loved the perception, the restraint of divided government, and the image that this outsider businessman was not beholden to Washington insiders, lobbyists, and big money (the unholy triumvirate of impunity for many of our participants).” economistTrump makes many Americans “watch.”
Polling analyst Nate Silver, whose “gut” leans toward a Trump victory, recently listed 24 factors in Trump’s favor. These include a 2% Electoral College advantage for Republicans, a 20% increase in prices since 2020, stagnant or modest wage increases, nearly 5 million illegal border crossings between 2021 and 2023, Kamala Harris’s leftist stances on fracking and immigration, and Are included. The “feminization” of the American political landscape, which has strengthened Trump’s appeal among non-college-educated white men and attracted more black and Latino men.
‘Horrible, horrifying, stomach turning’
In the 2016 campaign, Trump famously claimed, “I could stand in the middle of (New York’s) Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and not lose any voters.” Eight years, the Capitol Hill riot and more than 30 felony indictments later, his popularity is at an all-time high.
Trump’s campaign strategy has focused on energizing his base. As author Tom Nichols put it, “Trump supporters love him because he is as fearless as he is. They want Trump to be terrifying, horrifying, and stomach-turning, so that re-electing him would be a complete act of social retribution. You will realize.”
As the campaign has progressed, Trump’s rhetoric has deepened, labeling anyone who opposes him as the “enemy within.” He has blamed illegal immigrants for America’s economic and social challenges. Recently he said, “This is the final battle. With you, we will dismantle the deep state… and we will free America from these villains forever.”
Despite Trump’s strong appeal to his base, concerns about his integrity, criminal trials, and the chaos surrounding him appear to have limited him to 48% in support. Even among some voters leaning toward Trump, doubts remain about his credibility and mental fitness. Lillian, a 27-year-old Virginian who voted, said, “I don’t trust Kamala in terms of our national security or our economy. But I don’t know that I would trust Trump to be a normal person for the next three months.” Am I or not?” Trump said in 2020, but is still undecided NYT,
The demographics behind the tight race
The second reason for the tight competition is demography. Broadly, the electorate is 67% white, 13% Latino, 12% black and 5% Asian. While Trump’s focus has primarily been on voters over the age of 60 and those without college degrees, whose strong support helped propel him to victory in 2016, he has also targeted younger voters along racial lines. At the beginning of the campaign, he identified young, undecided voters in swing states, who make up 11% of the electorate, as the key to victory.
A recent Harvard Youth Poll supports this strategy: Compared with four years ago, 7% fewer voters under 30 identify as Democrats, while a similar percentage now consider themselves Republicans. Among Gen Z men, three out of four describe their future as “bleak.” “Obscure” or “scary”. Additionally, twice as many youth are lonely, less likely to attend college, and less likely to participate in the workforce, leading to higher suicide rates.
In his campaign, Trump has leaned heavily toward the preferred medium of his young audience, prioritizing media presence with favorite podcast hosts, creating what is commonly referred to as “bro culture.” He spent three hours with top podcaster Joe Rogan, an actor and comedian popular among youth, chatting about football and other topics relevant to this largely apolitical crowd.
Trump has made his largest gains among young black and Hispanic voters, particularly young black and Hispanic men, who are associated with his conservative views. the new York Times Chief Political Analyst, Nate Cohn. Nearly 40% of black voters and 43% of Hispanic voters say they support building a wall on the southern border. Similarly, 45% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters favor deporting undocumented immigrants. Cohn points out that among Hispanic men under 45, Trump has a 55–38 lead, with even stronger support among Hispanic and black men 18–29 years old.
After a turbulent 14 weeks of campaigning, Kamala Harris’s biggest challenge remains that voters still don’t feel they know her well. She has largely avoided specifics, often giving scripted answers to questions about her changing views on immigration, health care and green energy.
His main message from the Democratic convention is this: He is committed to all Americans, whether they vote for him or not, to putting country above self, promoting non-ideological solutions, and serving as a unifier. Their slogan is, “We’re not going back.” However, critics have summarized it as, “I’m not Trump.”
Although economist Endorsing him in its latest issue, he was branded a “highly mechanical politician”. Harris also faces the pressure of Biden’s deep unpopularity, which she did nothing to alleviate. When asked if she would have done anything differently from Biden, she replied, “I know about one thing. I couldn’t think.”
Harris’s dependence on women
Nevertheless, Harris’ campaign strategy may still prove decisive. He has focused heavily on women, particularly white women, who make up 30% of the electorate and are the largest single demographic. Although white women lean Republican (53%) versus Democratic (43%), they are less divided than white men. Importantly, unlike young men, they are more likely to vote.
Young white women motivated to protect reproductive rights have been a driving force for Harris. In 2020, Trump received 53% of the white female vote, up from 47% in 2016. but latest new York Times/Siena poll shows Harris and Trump now in deep trouble, with Harris slightly ahead. Times It was also noted that his campaign targeted women without college degrees, who often lean Republican not for economic reasons, but over the so-called “care economy” and policies supporting parents and caregivers. They can be persuaded by Harris’s attention.
According to a recent news ABC News/According to the Ipsos national poll, Trump trails Harris by 14 points among likely women voters, far exceeding her 6-point lead among men. The gender divide among young voters is even deeper: across three Times/In a poll this fall in Sienna, Trump leads Harris by 21 points among young men, while Harris leads Trump by nearly 40 points among young women.
Another advantage for Harris is that her campaign is more focused on voter turnout. Harris’s team outspent Trump’s by a 3:1 ratio, with significant investments in staff and volunteers for door-to-door canvassing and phone calls. In swing states, their 2,500 employees in 353 offices have knocked on more than 600,000 doors and fielded more than three million calls through 63,000 volunteer shifts.
Kamala, “Underdog”
At the start of the race, Harris told supporters, “This is a margin-of-error race. We’re the underdog, and I’m running like the underdog because I’m the underdog in this race.” As Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said: “The Harris coalition hinges on the most reliable voters (elderly, college-educated). Trump needs every single low-propensity, less educated young person to come out and vote for him. “
Pollsters agree that this race is too close to call, with narrow leads in swing states with little margin for error. In this seemingly stable field, a big surprise emerged on Friday when Iowa’s des moines register A poll by respected pollster Ann Selzer was published showing Harris ahead of Trump by four points.
Iowa is not a swing state; Republicans have traditionally dominated there. But Selzer’s poll shows Harris has increased the Democratic vote by 22% since Biden was the nominee, driven largely by her support for women on abortion and reproductive rights. Their polling also showed strong support for Harris on these issues among young women and even among women age 65 and older.
Reluctantly, and very late in the game, pollsters are beginning to face the possibility that this election may not live up to expectations. A new scenario has emerged: A single electoral vote from Nebraska could hand Harris a victory.
Nebraska, which has voted Republican in the last 14 elections, decided in the 1990s to apportion its electoral votes by congressional districts. If its most populous county, Douglas, votes Democratic as expected, it could give Harris a crucial 270th electoral vote in the event of a tie. This election may be in trouble.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is the former managing editor of Business Standard and former executive editor of The Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
