New Delhi: Tamil Superstar at a rally in Madurai last month VictoryCompare himself to a lion And announced that next year’s assembly elections in Tamil Nadu will be a fight between his Tamilga Vatri Kazgam (TVK) and the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazagam (DMK,He said, “A lion knows how to stay in the crowd and also how to live alone. It remains unique. A lion remains only to hunt, not for entertainment – and it always hunts of surviving hunting,” he told supporters, thunder of thunder. As an actor-consignor-it is called ‘Thalapathi’ (leader) by millions of fans-started his campaign from Trichy on September 13, the question is whether he has since 1969, DMK and his hardcore rival, All India Dravid Munnetra Kazagam (AIADMKOr will he divide the votes, and who stands to achieve (or necklace)?Vijay: Tamil cinema’s latest star in Politics – Rajinikanth’s misfire no repetitionWhen Vijay formally launched TVK in February 2024, he speculated about his political dip. The move carried forward the tradition of Tamil Nadu’s Tamil film stars entering politics – CN Annadurai and M. From Karunanidhi, who performed the screenplay screenplay before turning the Chief Ministers, acting veterans and future Chief Minister Mag Ramachandran, his wife VN Janaki and Proteg J Jayalalith.The heritage with Karunanidhi’s son, assault Chief Minister MK Stalin, and Stalin’s son and Uddaynidhi has ended today – both began in cinema before turning to politics. Other places, Kamal Haasan, the founder of Makkal Needi Miam and now a Rajya Sabha MP, and Andhra Pradesh Vice President Pawan Kalyan has continued the world of film and politics.Rajinikanth’s canceled entry in 2020 suspected whether another superstar would take a dip. Vijay’s decisive jump ended that suspense. But can ‘Thalapathi’ itself emerge as a political heavyweight?What does Vijay bring to the tableVijay comes with a prepared massive base. In the 2021 assembly elections, 1.37 crore voters aged 18–29 made 22 percent of Tamil Nadu voters. Analysts say the youth block is the place where TVK can make its first issue.Political commentator R Kannan told The Times of India, “Vijay’s fans are giving a push to TVK. He is getting resonance among young voters, especially people under 40,”.At the age of 51, Vijay is lower than most political giants and stands on the first sensitive issues, including his presence in the 2017 Pro-Jalikttu protests. TVK evolved from its welfare-oriented fan club, Vijay Makkal Iyakam.Analysts and in -laws JVC Sreram actor – see the elder two ‘serious challenge’ – although not necessarily winning elections – and all previous celebrities perform better than first -timer.“At the moment, it seems that Vijay is giving a serious challenge. When I call a serious challenge, it does not mean that he is going to come to power. No stallwart was left after Jayalalithaa (AIADMK) and Karunanidhi (DMK), Vijay’s charisma and time gave her more traction than the first celebrity entrances, ”said Sriram.Vijay’s ‘political’ and ‘conceptual’ rivalsAt the first state conference of TVK in Vilupuram in October 2024, he determined his major rivals: the ruling DMK as his ‘political opponent’ and BJP – in power at national level since 2014, but a marginal force in Tamil Nadu – his ‘ideological rival as’,His stand against the BJP stems from opposition to central policies like NEET, Three-language formula and the Citizenship Amendment Act. Meanwhile, his criticism of DMK has focused on the failures of the regime, corruption, safety of women and deaths in custody. At the Madurai rally on 21 August, he also made fun of DMK chief Stalin by calling him ‘uncle’.It was also at the second state conference of TVK – that he finally targeted AIADMK, criticized his alliance with BJP. The speculation was triggered, as long as he was “sparing” to the party, especially since his Iyam had supported it in the 2011 elections.Kannan rejected such principles. “The sharp focus on the DMK stems from its position as the ruling party, while AIADMK has already spent five years in protest,” he argues.Vijay and AIADMK: Coalition was not thatIn recent months, AIADMK general secretary and former Chief Minister Edappi’s Palaniswami has repeatedly introduced his party as a ‘only force’ capable of defeating DMK. Nevertheless, earlier this year, reports indicated that AIADMK was near Detected a potential alliance With Vijay, but TVK’s demands were discussed – Palaniswami was pushed back into the BJP’s bottom.According to Kannan, this is a ‘missed opportunity’ for victory: “Was he tied with AIADMK, Vijay could have been important as Pawan Kalyan in Andhra Pradesh in Tamil Nadu. He might have kept allies in the government, if the alliance won, and then contested in the next elections.”The claim is somewhat supported by the trajectory of Kazgam (DMDK), Desia of late actor-royalty Vijayakanth. Established in 2005, DMDK started its election in the 2006 assembly elections, with all 234 seats, but won only one. Five years later, its luck was brilliantly flipped. Aligned with AIADMK in 2011, DMDK shocked the state by increasing 29 seats – more than 23 of DMK – and main protest. Nevertheless, its rise was short -lived: in the next two elections, after transferring the alliances, the party failed to win the same seat.So, AIADMK and Vijay can still come together? Political analyst Dr. “A alliance with DMK is denied as Vijay has already deployed him as his political opponent,” Sumant C Raman said. “AIADMK waited for him, although the talks failed because his demand was allegedly high.” Nevertheless, Raman says, some forms of future tie-up cannot be rejected.AIADMK -BJP: Partner in AudsAfter breaking ties with BJP in 2023, AIADMK Returned For the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in April this year – both sides resulted in the vacancy in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But the reunion remains uncomfortable. Palaniswami insisted that the AIADMK would form a single-party government, which would denote the BJP’s line that the NDA colleague would exclude the DMK simultaneously.Shriram says that both sides need each other, given that Tamil Nadu has barely seen a coalition government. “What if a party has to take support to form the government? All this will be decided only after the results. Earlier, it is meaningless to say such things,” he said. He also warned that to facilitate the reunion, the state BJP may push a part of BJP voters instead of Annamalai. Former IPS officers were important for tie-ups, arguing that the party should move automatically in Tamil Nadu.DMK vs AIADMK: Which side can benefit more than Vijay’s support?In the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, DMK -led block participated in power with 159 seats and 46 percent vote share. DMK alone was responsible for 133 of these wins. NDA, comparatively, managed 40 percent of the vote share for the remaining 75 seats, 66 of them were taken by AIADMK.Nevertheless, many constituencies were decided by Wafer-Thin Margin-in some cases, just a few hundred votes (the margin of victory was below 1,000 in seven seats, including 137 as low as). If you can tip such seats to join Vijay and TVK?“With the Vijay AIADMK not joining the hands, the DMK is handed over on a plater. He will only divide the votes and weaken the opposition. In fact, the name is also supporting Tamiller Kachi, making TVK the chief beneficiary,” Kannan said that DMK said that DMK does not need ‘victory.Raman can also benefit DMK if the TVK contests the election independently: “Without being a part of a large alliance, it is going to be difficult for victory, as things are standing. If he stands alone, he will divide the anti-DMK vote and help it to win the election.”How high can Vijay-TVK be?Experts agree that there is anti-incompatibility against DMK, but the NDA (and AIADMK) weakens the speed for a political newcomer change as internal divisions and the state of victory. The main question is whether he can emerge as a kingmaker – or even as a reliable third power – is the same for the brief role played by Vijayakanth.Kannan estimates that, taking advantage of its large-scale fan base, TVK can secure 5–10 percent of the vote share, which is an impressive achievement for a debut. Meanwhile, Shri Ram provides a note of caution.“For the first time, voters, Dalits, minorities (especially as a Christian’s father are a Christian), and women make the origin of victory support. Nevertheless, the absence of experienced candidates makes the absence uncertain whether this support will turn into votes and seats,” he said. One thing is sure: The entry of ‘Thalapathy’ ensures that the choice of Tamil Nadu will not only be seen for the winner, but how superstar rebuilds the state’s permanent power balance.
