Kovalam Beach, located on the southern tip of India, was unusually quiet during the last week of March. Despite its enduring charm, which has attracted large numbers of European tourists for decades, the coastline is far from crowded, except for a few hundred domestic visitors. This time of the year generally coincides with the spring equinox, when the sun is almost overhead, causing daytime temperatures to rise and Kerala to be blanketed in heat and humidity. Still, this season feels different.
Intermittent summer rains in the latter half of the month have tempered the otherwise humid weather. Even under clear, sunny skies, the coastline appears unusually sparse with foreign tourists. The absence of European tourists is striking, a sober testament to how the emerging crisis in West Asia has disrupted the travel plans of many and hit Kerala’s tourism sector and the local economy.
Sundar Murthy CK, a travel guide with nearly four decades of experience, sitting along the shoreline kissed by pristine blue waters, says he has never seen Kovalam so devoid of European tourists at this time of the year. In recent years, due to unstable geopolitics in these regions, there has already been a significant decline in visitors from Russia and the Scandinavian countries and members of the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The situation has now become critical due to disruption in international flight operations and turmoil at key transit points in West Asia. The closure of airspace in the Gulf countries amid rising military tensions has severely affected the flow of tourists due to the closure of operations of many airlines connecting Kerala with West Asia, dealing a huge blow to the state’s economy.
Guests forced to stay longer
“An eight-member group from the UK, for whom I was providing guiding services, was forced to stay for an extended period of time after their flights were cancelled. Just two days earlier, their travel agents had managed to arrange tickets avoiding transit points like Dubai and Doha,” says Murthy.
The travel restrictions have upset the itineraries of many foreigners who had already left home for their annual holidays.
Sweden’s Mila, who reached Kovalam two days later than planned, had booked a ticket on Qatar Airways from Copenhagen to Goa via Doha. “However, Qatar Airways canceled the flight due to the war, and I had to book tickets on Air India to New Delhi and Chennai and then to Goa before coming to Kerala. We missed two days because of the war. Now we are going to Vietnam from here, and then we will fly directly to our home city from Ho Chi Minh City,” says Mila.
The decline in the number of foreigners has cast a pall over the tourism industry. Rajesh S, a private beach shack staff member in Kovalam who has arranged sunbeds and umbrellas for foreigners on the beach for three decades, says he has hardly had any international customers recently. Even the tourists who reached the beach are anxious to return because of the war. “The industry benefits to a great extent from foreign tourist travel because domestic tourists do not spend that much,” says Rajesh.
wellness tourism is sick
The impact of the war is also felt in the allied areas. The situation is not good in the medical tourism sector, often considered the cradle of wellness tourism in India, which has been badly hit due to cancellation of bookings.
Sajeev Kurup, general secretary of the Confederation of Kerala Tourism Industry and chairman of the Ayurveda Task Force under the National Tourism Committee of FICCI, says, “About 85% of wellness tourists coming to the state from abroad are dependent on transit hubs like Doha and Dubai due to the lack of direct flights from Europe to Kerala. With these routes disrupted, the inflow of wellness tourists has almost come to a halt. This has led to large-scale cancellations and postponements.” Moreover, bookings for the next season, which usually start by the end of this season, are zero so far, says Kurup.
live kitchen charm
LPG shortage due to the ongoing conflict has further aggravated the crisis. Fifty-six year old K. Ragavan, who runs an eatery on the way to the popular Papanasam beach in Varkala, a coastal destination famous for its red laterite rocks bordering the Arabian Sea, says the drop in tourist numbers as well as LPG shortage has dealt a major blow to his business. He says, “Tourists are attracted when local eateries have live kitchens, but due to LPG shortage we are now unable to run live kitchens. Hence, I am getting only one-fourth of my daily revenue, which is inadequate to meet the eatery’s expenses, including the salaries of two support staff.”
A large number of eateries across Kerala, known for their local, Chinese, Arab and continental cuisine, have been forced to shut down operations, badly hitting the economy. B., owner of Nook Restaurant in Thiruvananthapuram. Vijayakumar said that in view of the decline in business, he has allowed his employees from other states to return home. “We are unable to pay them. Also, natives of West Bengal and Assam, where elections are to be held in April, can cast their votes,” says Vijayakumar.
miss election
There are over 35 lakh Keralites in the Gulf countries and the end of March generally marks the beginning of the peak international travel season in Kerala. Airports are usually bustling with activity. Although the foreign tourist season, which begins in October–November, ends by April, the period also coincides with school holidays and assembly elections this year, prompting many non-resident Keralites to return home, especially to the Malabar region, to cast their votes.
However, this year tells a different story. “There is no possibility of any significant influx of migrants to Kerala this holiday season,” says Abubakar Arimbara, president of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre, Jeddah unit, Saudi Arabia. “People are unsure whether they will be able to return to their workplaces in time if the situation in West Asia worsens. Therefore, most expatriates are choosing to stay here,” says Mr Arimbra.
For Shaji Muhammad, a 47-year-old cab driver who lives in Thrissur, the impact has been immediate and severe. His income has fallen to only 30% of normal income after the flight disruption. “I used to make about 30 to 40 trips every month from Cochin International Airport,” he says. “Most of my customers were regulars, people working in Gulf Cooperation Council countries or their family members traveling for reunions during school holidays. I have had hardly four trips so far this month,” laments Muhammad.
The uncertainty surrounding the West Asian crisis has forced many migrant families to abandon immediate travel plans. Concerns over job stability in the Gulf have increased amid reports of wage cuts and slowing economic activity.
Dhanya Sujit, whose husband is an engineer in the UAE, recently canceled her plans to travel there with her two children during the school holidays. “My husband’s employer has indicated that there could be a 20% pay cut if the situation continues,” she says. Dhanya says, “Given the uncertainty and the possibility of further flight disruptions, it is safe to stay in Kerala for now. Any stress could disrupt our children’s schooling.”
Experts have warned that the effects of the crisis could extend far beyond tourism and travel. Kerala’s economy, which is largely dependent on remittances and tourism, is beginning to take a hit as its key lifelines have been disrupted.
“We have performed relatively well during past crises, including the 2008 global financial meltdown and the COVID-19 pandemic,” says S Irudaya Rajan, president of the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD). Rajan says, “But the impact of this situation could be equal to the combined impact of those two crises. Unlike earlier conflicts like the Kuwait-Iraq war, which were more local, the current crisis affects the entire Gulf region. The economic fallout could be much larger than we expect.”
Investor confidence in the Gulf region is also showing signs of strain, with reports suggesting that some investors are starting to look beyond the region. Experts believe this could have a significant impact on millions of Indian workers.
For expatriates like Jijesh Gopinath, a native of Ernakulam who has worked in the UAE for more than two decades, the uncertainty is intensely personal. “It is not clear whether we should bring our children back to Kerala till the next academic year or not,” he says. “If the war prolongs and salaries are cut, it will become difficult to support the family in the Gulf,” says Jijesh. “The question is whether to wait till June-July or act now.”
Rajan suggests, “The government should immediately set up a panel to assess both the short-term and long-term impacts of this crisis and formulate measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis.”
With Kerala going to the assembly elections on April 9, the public discussion and political narrative, for now, is dominated by local issues, ranging from developmental concerns to controversies involving both the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), identity and religious debates.
transmission power
The Kerala Migration Survey 2023, conducted by the Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation with technical support from IIMAD, estimates that total remittances from migrants will be a record ₹2,16,893 crore in 2023, up from ₹85,092 crore in 2018 – an increase of 154.9%. This is a testament to how much NRI remittances have strengthened Kerala’s economy.
The state has consistently maintained a 21% share in India’s NRI deposits since 2019. Against this backdrop, once the dust of the election campaign settles, Kerala is likely to face a future marked by deep uncertainty, no less than the crisis unfolding in West Asia.
