Bihar will elect its 18th assembly in a two-phase election starting on 6 November. On its face, the competition is about whether Nitish Kumar will become the Chief Minister of the state for the fifth consecutive time after the election-he has been sworn in as a bean nine times, but again to flee again. Pulses (RJD) for a win after two decades. The proper print of this competition is, however, even more interesting, because the politics of Bihar is in the tail of cosmic fork in the road, where the factors and personality dominating the state politics are disappearing into oblivion and a new set of stable actors is yet to emerge. To understand what the upcoming elections for Bihar means, it is necessary to connect with your recent history.
The rise, fall and dilemma of Lalu Prasad and RJD politics
Lalu Prasad Yadav is one of the two posters of Mandal politics in northern India, the other is Mulayam Singh Yadav of Uttar Pradesh, who died in 2022. The year was one and eight under his Chief Minister and his wife Rabri Devi, who was nominated after the arrest as an accused in the fodder scam in 1997. These facts may suggest that Lalu and his party (Janata Dal/Rashtriya Janata Dal) got extraordinary support in Bihar. However, the basic election data shows that this is not the case.
Lalu’s political luck reached its peak in 1995, the only election in which his party won a simple majority in Bihar. This analysis has only considered 243 ACS that remained in Bihar after the state was bouted in 2000 to create Jharkhand. As of 2010, when the Janata Dal (United) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a large 84.8% of the seats, the RJD’s election said. Not only did its seat 9.1%a paletry, NDA had more Muslim MLAs (seven from JD (U) and one from BJP than six of RJD. The RJD’s decision for a collaborator with JD (U) in the 2015 assembly elections also accepts Nitish Kumar’s leadership in the alliance – later declared as the Chief Minister’s candidate – RJD in Bihar between 2000 and 2010 should be seen in the backdrop of a continuous slide in Bihar.
However, RJD and JD (U) have not been able to go to their alliance in the state despite two attempts-one time as pre-poll colleagues and after a JD (U), after jumping the ship from NDA, in 2022 colleagues with RJD with RJD-and JD (U) went back to BJP. The RJD currently face a major dilemma: its traditional allies, such as Congress and Left parties, are not enough to take the threshold of power in Bihar to the past, and the party that can help bring it to power, does not stick to its coalition. (See Chart 1)
Nitish Kumar’s political somarasolts are reaching their limits
Nitish Kumar’s first dissatisfaction was from the rank of Janata Dal against Lalu Yadav in 1994 and his politics. He first demanded colleagues at the Ultra -Left, and contested the 1995 assembly elections with the Communist Party Marxist -Lalenist Liberation or CPI ML, which is very bad. By the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish had swung from the left to the right and entered the alliance with the BJP. Nitish’s alliance with the BJP will continue till 2013, when he went out of the NDA opposing Narendra Modi’s prime minister’s candidature for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar contested with the Communist Party of India (CPI) and collapsed to only two Lok Sabha MPs.
JD (U) once again jumped the ship, joining the 2015 assembly elections with RJD and Congress, and the alliance won a landslide. JD (U) -RJD alliance gave way to 2017, and Nitish re -included NDA. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, NDA won 39 out of 40 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in the state. However, the 2020 election was a huge late-down for the JD (U), and it recorded its worst performance in the Bihar Legislative Assembly since 2005. The biggest reason for the collapse of JD (U) in the 2020 elections in Bihar was subotes from within the NDA, which was in the form of Lock Jansakati Party (LJP), which was a part in the NDA. JD (U) and Nitish Kumar but compete with only six assembly constituencies (ACS) against the BJP. In 2022, Nitish left the NDA again and formed an alliance with RJD to stay in power, but he returned to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Things improved for JD (U) in the 2024 elections and this time also managed to get a deal to share a respectable seat.
The 1995 assembly elections and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections were proof that JD (U) could not contest the election automatically. However, in many elections in which JD (U) has contested with BJP and RJD, it has proved to be a very valuable ally that is indispensable to win Bihar. As Nitish Kumar is disappearing in view of his indifferent health, the biggest question of today that faces JD (U), is that after that who will take charge of it and whether JD (U) can maintain its value in the election stones of Bihar. (See Chart 2)
Nitish Kumar is also facing anti -disinterest
In the office with 20 years (stopping some obstacles), Nitish Kumar is now one of the longest services of the country. Bihar is also one of the poorest states in the country. This means that Nitish Kumar is also facing important opponents. The best way to understand the basis of the purpose of this anti-incompatibility is to look at the long-term trend in Bihar’s full and relative per capita GSDP. While Bihar’s per capita GSDP Lalu-Rabri was flat during years, after being lost in a decade and a half, Nitish Kumar started growing rapidly after taking over. To ensure this, some of the speed of growth may also increase from the pre-inferior period. Despite this impressive track record, Bihar’s relative economic condition has only deteriorated during the Nitish era. This per capita income of Bihar is best seen in the decline in the form of All-India National Income. The fact is that the NDA government headed by Nitish has opened the flood of welfare measures before this election, only accepts the presence of uncertainty of a strong content in the state. (See Chart 3A and 3B)
BJP is the only party with a steady growth in Bihar, but it still cannot win automatically
If someone was comparing party-wise vote shares of three major parties in Bihar-BJP, JD (U) and RJD-BJP seems to be the only party that has seen its graph almost constantly growing. By 2020, the BJP’s election vote share was at its all -time high level and its vote share was its highest if someone was to exclude 2015, when the BJP contested a much more AC since the NDA attained JD (U) in Guna. Despite this impressive historical performance, the BJP is still not close to occupying power without a big ally in the state. The BJP felt a difficult way in both 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. In the first, JD (U) -RJD -Congress alliance swept the elections, and in the second, NDA crossed the half -way mark after the LJP sabotage JD (U), possibly with BJP’s blessings. (See Chart 4A and 4B)
Despite the centrality of alliances, Bihar’s politics is the most fragmented
Lalu and Nitish, who are two central characters, dominated Bihar politics for the last three decades, when Bihar’s politics reached the peak of success when its most fragmented, if it was captured by looking at the average effective number (ENOP) of the participants in the state assembly. Enop is mutual in the sum of the vote share sections of each candidate in a constituency and grows with a rising degree of fragmentation. For example, if there were three candidates with votes of 80%, 12% and 8% in an election in a constituency; Election B 50%, 40%and 10%; And 35%, 33%and 32%in election C; Then there will be Mann A, B and C for elections 1.51, 2.38 and 3 respectively. The medium of Bihar was the highest in 1995 when Lalu Yadav won his only majority in the state and in 2010 when Nitish Kumar led the NDA, the largest mandate in the state since 1962. While Bihar has fallen in average recent elections, it is still the highest among major states, which is closed in Ather-Corn. (See Chart 5A and 5B)
2025 Bihar elections will be tested each of their three major parties. JD (U) is running with his biggest leader in the election. Even if the NDA was to win power, then the question of leadership -something that is always situated around Nitish Kumar -will remain up in the Hawa. The BJP can find JD (U) to fall into the queue for this time-Nitish has never been so adjusted by the BJP during his three-decade alliance, as it has been since his latest comeback in NDA-but if the popularity of ZD (U) was also dipped with Nitish. RJD may expect the weakening of JD (U) and earning profit from the anti -anti -protest against Nitish Kumar, but it has proved unable to resolve the contradiction between its social base and a large political coalition. The RJD is also fighting with the ghosts of its own past, which continues politics in the state, as well as a rift between Tejashvi Yadav and his brother -in -law. The political churning of Bihar, given the dynamics described above, may continue well even after the results are declared on November 14, there is no possibility of resolving the major contradictions facing three major parties in the state with elections, especially a spiiler is likely to play in some seats.
