Few could have imagined the dramatic ouster of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024. For years, Syria’s battle lines were frozen under a fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia and Türkiye in 2020. Still, Assad’s fall after his family’s iron grip on Syria for more than five decades has shaken the region to its core. Writing in Foreign Policy, Leena Khatib of the London-based think tank Chatham House compared it to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and called it an “earthquake on a regional scale.”
The reasons for Assad’s fall are as much about Syria as its ophthalmologists are about the former president’s patrons – Russia, trapped in Ukraine, had neither the resources nor the resolve to support Assad, and the entire region Iran’s representatives were severely weakened by Israel. air strikes. Sensing the opportunity, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda-linked group, launched a brutal offensive. Assad’s forces, plagued by years of corruption, migration and low morale, succumbed to the onslaught of HTS. Predictably, Western powers have come forward to shape Syria’s political future and are now vying to influence the formation of the next government.
From the relative peace of India or peaceful Western European capitals, it is tempting to ask: Why is the Arab world always at war with itself? Why does it give rise to so many extremist groups? Why has it been trapped in a cycle of violence and instability for decades? To answer these questions, we have to look beyond the modern era, to the 11th century. But for now, let’s stay in the past century to understand how history has shaped the region’s current turmoil.
Lawrence syndrome
Years ago, I saw lawrence of arabiaA comprehensive story of the chaos of West Asia around 1916–17. Hollywood, as we know, isn’t big on sequels. But given the current mess in the region, I would definitely say, no, scream, that now is the time for a Lawrence of Arabia sequel.
The iconic 1962 film serves as a powerful metaphor for the ongoing conflicts in West Asia. The film’s themes of betrayal, tribalism and Western manipulation reflect the realities of modern conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Set during World War I, the film offers a candid window into the forces that set the stage for the region’s instability. The film stars T. E. Lawrence, played by Peter O’Toole, as a British officer forming a front consisting of various groups of Arab tribes to fight against the Ottoman Empire, which had ruled much of the Arab world for centuries. Had ruled over. The British official, on behalf of his government, promised the Arabs complete independence in return for their support.
However, as history shows, that promise was nothing more than a deception. After the war, the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement signed between Britain and France divided the region into British and French colonial spheres of influence, betraying the Arabs and ignoring their aspirations for self-determination. This betrayal was not just a diplomatic slight – it sowed the seeds of mistrust that continue to shape Arab-Western relations today.
The arbitrary boundaries drawn by colonial powers created fragile states that were at risk of disintegration, regardless of the ethnic, tribal or religious complexities of the region. Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen are vivid examples of this legacy: nations artificially created by outsiders are now disintegrating as factions fight for power in structures they were never designed to sustain. .
fragile tribal alliance
Many in the West still hold to the memorable but controversial views of Lawrence of Arabia about the Arabs: “So long as the Arabs fight tribe against tribe, they will remain a small, foolish people – greedy, Savage, and cruel, as you are.” In the film, Lawrence struggles to unite disparate Arab tribes against the Ottomans. This reflects the tribalism and factionalism that is affecting the region. For example, the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya exposed deep tribal rivalries, leading to a prolonged civil war. Similarly, in Yemen, the conflict is partly driven by tribal and sectarian divisions, which have been exacerbated by foreign intervention.
It’s all about the oil
In the film Lawrence said, “There is nothing in the desert, and no man wants anything.” But things changed dramatically in the region with the discovery of vast oil reserves. From “nothing”, the desert of the region became resource-rich. While increasing oil foreign interference turned deserts into global battlefields, another Hollywood film, Syriana, depicts how mega Western energy companies took on the role of kingmakers in the region, leading to, in our time, the US and Its allies have often supported local leaders across factions. For example, the US first supported Saddam Hussein during the Iran–Iraq War, but later overthrew him in 2003. In Syria, Western powers have supported various rebel groups, some of whom have since joined forces. Turned into destabilizing forces.
Oil, the region’s most valuable resource, has been both a blessing and a curse. Western powers showed keen interest in oil, wanting to control these resources to fuel their economies. The oil-rich Gulf states, despite benefiting economically, became overly dependent on Western security guarantees, leaving them vulnerable to foreign influence. The 1953 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-led coup in Iran, which ousted Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh after he nationalized the oil industry, is an example. Similarly, the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which was justified on dubious grounds, destroyed state institutions and unleashed a wave of sectarian violence that continues to plague the country.
Israel and modern warfare
The Balfour Declaration of 1917, in which Britain supported the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, increased tensions. This commitment was in contrast to promises made by the colonial powers to Arab leaders, who had assured support for an independent Arab state in return for their rebellion against the Ottomans. The betrayal left deep wounds, stoking resentment that persists to this day. The genocide and the establishment of Israel following the UN Partition Plan displaced thousands of Palestinians, leading to the First Arab–Israeli War in 1948. Subsequent wars (1956, 1967, 1973), the Palestinian refugee crisis and the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian War tensions continue to define the region’s instability. For many Arab countries, Israel became a symbol of Western-backed injustice and territorial loss.
Death of Pan-Arabism
Despite turmoil and crises, or perhaps because of them, pan-Arabism emerged as a movement to unite the warring Arab world under a common identity, overcoming tribal and sectarian divisions. Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt was the most prominent figure of this movement. Unfortunately for the common Arab people, internal rivalries, ideological differences, and outside interference disrupted the movement.
The United States and its allies, wary of the socialist underpinnings of Pan-Arabism, worked actively to undermine it. For example, the CIA was reportedly involved in plotting a coup to counter Nasser’s influence and support the conservative monarchy. By the 1970s, Pan-Arabism had largely faded, replaced by fragmented nationalism and anarchy.
hope, then disillusionment
The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 briefly raised hopes for democratic change. However, the results of the movements varied widely, with chaos breaking out in some states. In Syria, peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad turned into a brutal civil war, involving regional and international players. The US, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and others have all supported different factions, turning Syria into a proxy battlefield. Libya also overthrew its longtime leader Gaddafi with NATO help, leading to a prolonged conflict between rival factions. Meanwhile, countries like Egypt saw a return to authoritarianism, dashing hopes for meaningful reform.
echoes of the crusade
The Crusades, launched between the 11th and 13th centuries, were actually military campaigns by European Christian powers to reclaim Jerusalem and the Holy Land from Muslim control. Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub, commonly known in the West as Saladin, defeated the Christian forces of the Crusaders at the Battle of Hattin in 1187, leading to the recapture of Jerusalem. Ironically, Saladin was from a Kurdish family (non-Arabs in West Asia), but became a hero to the Arabs after the victory. The first Sultan of both Egypt and Syria is revered as a hero in Muslim societies today, especially in the Arab world, for his crushing defeats against European armies. He remains a celebrated figure of resistance, unity and Islamic heroism. Their victory symbolizes their ability to repel Western incursions – a legacy that is still cited today in discussions of imperialism, foreign intervention and the need for regional unity. Today, Islamic movements and Arab nationalists have, at times, compared Western intervention in the Middle East – such as the US-led invasion of Iraq or European colonial rule – with a “new crusade”, which would be carried out under various banners. There is continuity of aggression.
West Asia is in chaos. Visiting Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is considered unsafe. It remains a mix of conflict zones, authoritarian regimes and fragile states. More than six million Syrians are refugees living in neighboring countries, and more than seven million are internally displaced. Yemen’s civil war, driven by the Saudi-Iran rivalry, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Apart from the crises in Iraq and Syria, their people also have to deal with the threat of ISIS. Lebanon’s economy is declining rapidly, leading to increased social and political tensions. Even Israel’s economy has collapsed due to continuous wars over the past 14 months.
The US and its Western allies are deeply involved in the region, whether through military presence, arms sales, supporting one extremist organization or another, or through diplomatic maneuvers. Unfortunately apart from Turkey, no other emerging power or BRICS countries are showing any interest in shaping the future of the region, even though they know that they may ultimately be affected by the ongoing crisis.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
