In an era where global powers are beefing up their nuclear forces and dormant arsenals are operating with new urgency, India stands at a dangerous crossroads: should it reignite the fire of nuclear testing to assert its strategic sovereignty, or maintain the delicate restraint that has balanced diplomacy and deterrence for decades? The shadow of India’s 1998 Pokhran-II test still remains, marked by geopolitical reactions and economic sanctions. Yet today, with the American President donald trump India is facing a big dilemma by publicly accusing rival countries like Pakistan and China of secret nuclear tests.
India’s nuclear journey began in 1974 with its first nuclear test, code-named ‘Smiling Buddha’, which shocked the world with a bold display of nuclear capability. However, there was a long gap of 24 years before India conducted its next round of tests, the definitive Pokhran-II, in 1998.
Now, 27 years after that historic moment, the clock is ticking again – posing an important question: Is the time for India to conduct another series of nuclear tests to secure its place amid the changing geopolitical order? The answer could shape not only India’s nuclear strategy, but also the future stability of South Asia and its global standing.Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said the resumption of US nuclear tests “would open the door for states with less nuclear testing experience to conduct full-scale tests that could help them perfect smaller, lighter weapons designs”.Joseph Rodgers, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said states like China or India would benefit from resuming nuclear testing.“It makes more sense for them to test than for the US or Russia”, Rodgers said, the two states that have conducted the most nuclear tests to date.
Trump started the debate
before his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping On October 29–30, 2025, in South Korea, Trump posted on social media that, because other countries were conducting nuclear tests, he had directed the US military to begin nuclear weapons testing again on an “equal basis” with those countries, and that the process would “begin immediately”.Trump’s comments were interpreted by many as a sign that the US was preparing to resume full-scale nuclear explosions for the first time since 1992.
In an interview with 60 Minutes on CBS, Trump reiterated his position. When Trump was asked if he planned to detonate a nuclear weapon in the US for the first time in more than 30 years, he said, “I’m saying we’re going to test nuclear weapons like other countries, yes.”“Russia is testing, and China is testing, but they don’t talk about it,” he said. “I don’t want to be the only country that doesn’t test,” he said, also including North Korea and Pakistan in the list of countries that reportedly test their arsenals.
maybe what he meant
Just days after Trump’s comments, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified that America is not planning to carry out a nuclear explosion.“These are not nuclear explosions,” Wright told Fox News on Sunday. “These are what we call sub-critical explosions.” But Wright, whose agency oversees the testing, said people living in the Nevada desert should have “no concerns” about seeing mushroom clouds.“Historic test sites like the Nevada National Security Site have no cause for concern for Americans,” Wright said. “So we’re testing all the other parts of the nuclear weapon to make sure that they provide the proper geometry, and that they produce a nuclear explosion.”
What are sub-critical nuclear tests?
Sub-critical nuclear testing refers to experiments that involve nuclear material such as plutonium but use less than the amount required to initiate a chain reaction that would cause a nuclear explosion. No nuclear detonation occurs because the test does not achieve “criticality”, the point at which a self-sustaining nuclear reaction occurs.These tests involve compressing or shocking small amounts of fissionable material with high explosives to study how the material behaves under extreme conditions.Subcritical tests help scientists validate computer models and ensure the safety, security, and reliability of nuclear weapons without causing a full nuclear explosion.These are usually buried underground to contain any radioactive byproducts and prevent a nuclear explosion.Countries such as the US, Russia, and China use sub-critical tests to maintain their nuclear stockpiles under international testing restrictions such as the CTBT.Thus, sub-critical testing is a way to “test” nuclear weapons components on a smaller, safer scale without violating nuclear testing restrictions or triggering nuclear explosions.
Can sub-critical nuclear tests be detected?
Sub-critical nuclear tests are generally very low yield and do not produce a nuclear explosion, so they release minimal energy and radiation. Because of this, sub-critical tests are often difficult or impossible to detect by international monitoring systems such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS).IMS uses seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide stations to detect nuclear explosions around the world. Although it can detect all full-scale nuclear tests, the very low yield of subcritical tests – often below the limit of about 1 kiloton equivalent – means that they usually do not produce detectable seismic or atmospheric signatures. Radionuclide detectors also rely on gases released during the explosion, which are not present in subcritical tests.Sub-critical tests are mostly not picked up by IMS or satellite surveillance, making them effectively covert from the perspective of existing international nuclear test detection systems, unless detected through other intelligence sources or on-site inspection after the CTBT comes into force.
What could India’s next nuclear test be like?
If India conducts nuclear tests today, it would reflect significantly evolved scientific, strategic and geopolitical conditions compared to the Pokhran-II tests of 1998. Features of a modern Indian nuclear test would likely include:
- Advanced Warhead Design India’s nuclear program has been progressing since 1998, including the development of thermonuclear weapons and small arms suitable for ballistic missile arsenals such as the Agni series. Today’s tests will likely focus on validating thermonuclear yield and refining warhead designs to ensure reliability and accuracy.
- Subcritical and computer-simulated testing While explosive nuclear tests are possible, India could also include sub-critical tests – experiments that do not generate a self-sustaining chain reaction – and extensive computer simulations. These methods increase warhead performance confidence without full-scale testing, but full testing may be opted for if strategic or political signals require it.
- Test sites and environmental measures Like Pokhran in Rajasthan, the test will likely take place at a well-established testing site with extensive monitoring and safety protocols. The test would be instantly detected by satellite and seismic probes globally, making secrecy impossible.
- international result India would expect immediate diplomatic fallout, including possible suspension of nuclear cooperation with the US under the 123 agreement and possible sanctions.
123 What is agreement?
The 123 Agreement, formally called the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement, is a bilateral agreement signed in 2008 that allows civil nuclear trade and cooperation between India and the United States. It was a landmark agreement that ended decades of nuclear isolation for India, enabling it to engage in global nuclear commerce despite not being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The agreement requires India to separate its civilian and military nuclear facilities while maintaining control over its nuclear weapons programme, with civilian reactors subject to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The 123 agreement facilitates technology transfer, fuel supply and nuclear commerce, strengthening India’s civil nuclear energy capabilities and strategic partnership with the US.
What will happen if India conducts nuclear test?
123 According to Article 14 of the agreement, if India conducts a nuclear test, the United States reserves the right to immediately end all nuclear cooperation. This has significant implications for India’s civil nuclear energy expansion plans and international standing. Previous statements by US policymakers, including former US President Barack Obama, have emphasized India’s eventual ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) as part of broader nonproliferation goals.
Are sub-critical tests covered under 123 agreement?
The 123 agreement between India and the United States does not explicitly mention subcritical nuclear testing. The agreement primarily focuses on prohibiting the testing of “nuclear explosive devices” and maintaining a moratorium on nuclear testing as a condition for continued civilian nuclear cooperation.Subcritical tests, which do not involve a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction or an actual nuclear explosion, generally fall outside the scope of what is traditionally defined as nuclear explosive testing. This nuance means that sub-critical tests are not explicitly banned under the terms of the 123 Agreement on the Nuclear Test Moratorium.However, any full nuclear explosive test would be a violation, giving the US the right to end cooperation and possibly impose sanctions.
world’s nuclear arsenal
Currently there are 9 countries (Russia, America, China, France, Britain, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea) that have nuclear weapons. According to the Federation of Atomic Scientists’ 2025 Status of the World’s Nuclear Forces, these countries possess approximately 12,331 nuclear weapons, including more than 9,600 in active military stockpiles. Although this is a significant decline from the approximately 70,000 warheads owned by nuclear-armed states during the Cold War, nuclear arsenals are expected to grow in the coming decade.Russia has the largest number of confirmed nuclear weapons, with approximately 5,500 nuclear warheads. America is in second place with 5,177 nuclear weapons. The total nuclear weapons possessed by these two countries alone account for about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.(More than 2000 nuclear weapons tests have been conducted since 1945. The first nuclear device was detonated as a test by the United States at the Trinity Site in New Mexico on July 16, 1945, with a yield equivalent to approximately 20 kilotons of TNT.
